The Collapse of Complex Business Models (2010)
shirky.com
shirky.com
He should have lead with this.
Then see how the bottom line fares. I see three outcomes:
1. Profits are down. Those managers added value after all.
2. Profits about the same. Those managers added nothing.
3. Profits up!! Those managers were dragging them down the whole time. Who knew?
Oh, and additional possible outcomes (IMO both more likely than yours):
4. the company disintegrates into complete chaos and goes bankrupt before the year is half over.
5. the remaining employees self-organize and the more ambitious among them end up doing exactly what the middle managers were doing before.podcast (en) – omega tau science & engineering podcast 184 – Societal Complexity and Collapse
Tainter's book on Amazon (no affiliate link): http://a.co/hDAtqpU
https://www.amazon.com/Little-Rice-Smartphones-Xiaomi-Chines...
.. but nothing else of note? It's hard to tell what he's up to these days, but I sorely miss his blog writing.
Was that dog whistling the repeal of net neutrality?
Not sure why the two use cases are presented as directly competing. The popularity of long form scripted content on Netflix and shows like Walking Dead, Breaking Bad, etc., are huge and not going away even though the methods of distribution are changing from linear broadcast with commercials over cable/satellite to subscription on-demand OTT without ads. That's the transition taking place rather than hours spent viewing 1 minute viral videos taking away from hours spent watching high cost production long-form content otherwise the ratings would be crashing for those shows and Netflix wouldn't be spending billions on production.
Seems like a false dichotomy.
At least a few times per week I go through the YouTube and Vimeo apps on the Apple TV and apart from catching up on late night talk shows on YouTube, and some interesting short-form content on Vimeo, it doesn't at all replace watching high quality (expensive, complex) content from iTunes and Netflix.
The article also doesn't cover live programming at all, which is increasing exponentially in complexity for things like sports (Olympics coverage, specifically) but also a ton of live event production that wasn't possible before complexity (new technology) increases. Again, user-generated live (Periscope, YouTube) is additional, and doesn't replace watching that content either. There's a ton of room for more complexity with new technology for things like the Super Bowl with tiny 4K cameras in each helmet and delivery over web streaming with viewers watching from whatever angle they want, etc., that user generate content has no means of replacing.
The challenge is managing the shift from ad revenue to subscription revenue, and subsequent competition for the consumer's total monthly subscription budgets, rather than complex production being challenged by non-complex (user generated) content.
Unlike the AT&T example listed, large companies are already aggressively moving towards acquiring content rights and shifting to building OTT/VOD platforms, which is a key motivator of the recent large acquisitions like AT&T (ironically) and Time Warner / Turner / HBO, and Disney and Fox... the pivot is underway and whether or not it is successful doesn't seem related to those companies not being able to simplify but rather if they can avoid a fall in revenue from loss in ad sales during the transition process.
To imagine an extreme end of the spectrum as a thought experiment, I can't imagine that 5 years from now I'll be watching 1 minute viral videos all evening instead of professionally produced long form content. Candy is great but I still haven't replaced a (complex) full meal dinner with a pile of candies.
Even for video content on Facebook, I'd assume as that takes up more of the finite time it will trend towards increasing volumes of professionally produced content.
There's a lot of interesting low budget user generated content but that won't change the fact that a lot of value created by professional, extremely talented writers, producers, cinematographers, editors, special effects graphics creators, etc..
What's the youngest person you have the chance to observe the evening routine of?
Both my girlfriend and my sister will go to bed every evening, pull out their phone, and spend an hour watching 1 minute short viral videos on Instagram, Facebook, and Snapchat. Endless stream. 1 minute bits of content.
My girlfriend has gone so far as saying Snapchat's serious channels are the best service to catch up on the news.
In terms of younger audiences though there is also huge success with high budget animation. Pixar's success over time still seems more tied to quality of each film rather than declining consistently over time due to loss of interest in the format itself.
For news, 100% agree, ripe for disruption from social media (or at least web over cable news) although that is obviously facing new challenges in terms of reliability (i.e. Facebook/Twitter re election).
Similar to how a lot of high budget production moved from making 3 hour movies, to making 10 1 hour episodes. Overall more and better content, but in smaller easier to digest pieces.
I think that's a trend that isn't going away. People, especially as they age, have less and less time to stick to one thing. If you can cut it up for them and make it nibbleable, they will go for it.
When was the last time you chose to watch a full movie at home in one sitting? I bet you watch Netflix series instead, or pause your movie and continue the next day.