To the extent that there is an analogous concept it's their utility as a means of exchange. Which outside of drugs and hard drive ransoms is minuscule at best.
You don’t have to make it totally safe, just safer compared to other methods of evading control.
Either way, someone ends up with cash CNY and the other person ends up with electronic USD or EUR or whatever.
The immediate limiting factor is the vulnerability of any in-person transaction to traditional law enforcement mechanisms, and the eventual limiting factor is that the exchange rate is going to be impacted by the demand for cash CNY. Eventually nobody is going to want to sell you USD (or whatever) for your cash-in-a-bag CNY, or will only do it at exorbitant rates.
It's the equivalent of you selling your BTC holdings at market rate and buying the car with USD.
Before you can move it out of the country, you have to get it out of the bank, and your bank will refuse to do that with currency control measures in effect.
They're different, which is why I used the term arguable--there's no clear reason afaik that bitcoin should be so valued relative to others, but I could be wrong.
- if 1 BTC were $100 trillion, then it's clearly passed the fundamentals of "being a unit of exchange between commercial entities", since it would be way more than what any form of exchange would ever require.
The truth behind the pedantic answer:
- if it's a store of value, then the "fundamental" value is the amount of fiat that's gone into the system so far. If all the exchanges have roughly $100 in USD deposits, the base value of their bitcoin deposits will be at least $100, roughly.
- If it's as a means of transactions, then the fundamentals are linked to how much transaction volume is going on. For example the flow of USD into BTC and vice-versa. BTC <-> BTC exchanges in that universe probably help to define things as well, as it would be used as an alternative to USD.
The dollars don't come from nowhere, so there's at least some base numbers you can think about. Thinking of it as "USD going into the ecosystem" and "USD going out" is a good proxy for now I think. Obviously very fluid, though.
The fact that “experienced” Bitcoin speculators are getting nervous is a sign the bubble is about to pop. Tether volumes are hockey-sticking up as a result. There has been enough technical analysis to show that USDT volume drives BTC price and not the other way around. USDT volume is hockey-sticking over the last few weeks. Feels like a Ponzi scheme and the whales are cashing out.
At some point there will be a correction. This velocity can't be maintained forever. But this is also a technology that heavily relies on going viral to become functional (payments/contracts) - and based on real world interactions I think crypto is heading towards an adoption curve that justifies its price.
Maybe other technologies will, but Bitcoin cannot.
1. http://www.comp.nus.edu.sg/~prateeks/papers/Bitcoin-scaling....
-- said a million articles in 2000
https://www.amazon.co.uk/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Finan...
If you buy in, buy in during a consolidation phase, when you see the price is stable. Ethereum had a huge run up, yet then consolidated for around 6+ months around $300. I would say that is healthy. Now it's heading higher. "Fundamentals" aside, of course.
edit: Oh you said "hope it is not" - my mistake.