>>> case 2: Bitcoin price drops to $8,000
case 3: one of the exchanges canceled your order shortly after they were done.
case 4: the exchange refuses to pay you out for whatever reason they invent.
case 5: the exchange goes bust, either seized by the police, hackers or the owner outright left with all the money.
In all these cases. You are likely to loose 100% of the sum you invested.