I've found the best "methodology" to deliver decent results are sticking with short iterations. Software is often about doing something we've either not done before, in a way we've not done it before, with people we've not done it with before. So we will have surprises (aka delays) on the way. The more frequent we check just what these delays are, the more realistic we can be about whether we can make it on time, or if we need to cut scope or pull in more help to make it on time.