Ask HN: How to improve critical thinking?
How do you avoid biases when taking any decisions or judgement.
1. Make predictions over short (next day, next hour) to long (next month,year) term. When you are right or wrong ask why. Make a hypothesis and test it out in your next prediction. You can and should do this with everything.
2. Understand how measurement correlates to meaning. Study metrology even, Measure things constantly and form your judgements and opinions from measurements.
3. Accept you and all humans are not rational (when was the last time you made an everyday choice after computing the mathematical probabilities) but driven by emotions and gut desires which are rationalized. You can read books about this but most of the time knowing you are biased wont protect you or stop you from being biased. Accept this, learn, strive to be better anyway, dont get frustrated.
4. Surround yourself by people who don't agree with you on everything.
5. Take on and argue for things you don't agree with or like to the point of being able to convince other people of them. It forces you to see another side of an issue and can be a good way to gain additional insight.
Typically this means that everything you read and write should say exactly what’s going on, nothing more. Who said/did what and when. If you are distracted by someone’s appearance, etc. then you’re probably experiencing a bias and should imagine what you’d think if you saw the same words printed with no attribution: does the statement stand by itself?
And if a statement might not stand by itself, have questions in your head that, if answered, would let the combined statements stand.
For example, “up to 50% off” sounds like a great deal and when emotions take over you might miss the fact that the statement doesn’t stand on its own. Example follow-up questions: 1. What is the minimum discount? 2. What was the price last week and last month? 3. What do competitors charge? 4. If this discount is taken, are other coupons also honored? It’s pretty amazing how many statements start to fall apart under slight scrutiny.
Don't be afraid of being wrong, don't be afraid of questioning anyone on anything. The outcome of this realization is always going to be 'right'.
Try it - start with your own faith maybe?
When about to take an important action, imagine you have to get the decision approved by someone else (could be a real person, or an imaginary one). Write a document detailing the decision to be made, the options (including not doing anything), the rationale, and finally your recommended course of action.
When you're done, imagine that person saying your analysis is insufficient to support the decision you're recommending. Why (again in your imagination) did they reach that conclusion?
The act of writing this stuff down will force your brain to slow down and put some structure around the decisions.
Also: assume anything anyone tells you is for their own benefit, and either untrue or, if technically true, misleading to the max.
Also: once you're comfortable applying this to big things, you can more easily (and maybe without paper) apply it to smaller things.
A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices.
--William James
I look for patterns, both in my own words or behavior and in that of other people. I learned long ago to "trust my eyes over my ears." People frequently say one thing, but do another. In most cases, I think they don't even realize it. In some cases, they are outright lying because they have an ugly agenda, but most people seem pretty oblivious to their own motivations and goals. I try to not take it too personally while trying to avoid getting sucked in.