Especially considering how easy it is to make a bitcoin transaction (compared to things like wheat, or oil...) it really should be "bitcoin settled".
Especially considering how easy it is to make a bitcoin transaction (compared to things like wheat, or oil...) it really should be "bitcoin settled".
This is one of the complexities of the ETF filings, where the filers stated their intention to determine which fork the ETF represented by things like hashpower, market cap or other temporal data points. This is dangerous for many reasons, thus it is best for the contracts to represent all possible future forks and not make a decision on them, allow the private keys to be delivered and allow the party who the coins are delivered to take split as they see fit. While this condition could be represented in a cash settled contract, there are infinite possible forks and CME could not possibly keep up with them all, thus the only practical way to solve the problem is physical delivery of private keys.
Even still, cash settlement is terrible.
The majority use case for Bitcoin isn't using Bitcoin at all. It's speculating on Bitcoin. Those people definitionally don't care about Bitcoin for its own sake.
I'm pretty sure the exchanges are offering these not because anybody actually has forward needs to buy or sell Bitcoin, as they would with, say, wheat. People just want to speculate. For those people, cash settlement is exactly what they're after.
But whither bitcoin, you say? Moving those is easy! Yes, but holding them is hard. Who wants Your Favorite Mutual Fund to hold bitcoins? Not them, that's for sure. There's much more risk there than necessary.
But yes I can see that some people/businesses would want to outsource that risk by trusting someone else to do it properly.
There may also be a regulatory angle here. ETFs that are backed by Bitcoin have been repeatedly smacked down by the SEC, but futures that merely bet on the price while not touching actual Bitcoin seem to be OK. I can imagine that this probably infuriates true believers.
It does if you only want to be exposed to price movements. With futures you can get that exposure with a much lower initial outlay than if you bought (or sold) the underlying. Leverage, in other words.
That's pretty much the point of them. Whether it's something that you'd find value in is somewhat beside the point. As well as speculation, I'd expect there is probably a market for people who actually want to use bitcoin as a medium of exchange. The current price fluctuations are a pain in the arse.
Sorry but you can't have futures on bitcoins that are settled in bitcoins.
It definitely makes it a pain for post-settlement management, and would likely prevent a lot of people from trading those futures, but why exactly is it not possible?