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Comment by jacquesm | Hacker News Reader

Makes you wonder what triggers people have for themselves to sell their 'stash'. 10 fold increases in a year won't last for very long.

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One trigger to sell is when you have enough to retire. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are creating a lot of millionaries. Probably more than startups and in a shorter time. Can't back up this, it is based on how many rich people exist around me in this field (where I also work) vs. friends struggling to make their companies scale even if they are doing well at a tiny scale.

For most people that'll require either almost all their savings in bitcoins for 10x or a significant portion for 100x. Neither is "easy."

It was easy for early adopters/believers/patient-people comparing with other options. More thinking about people outside US who don't have access to a lot of opportunities at an early stage.

I feel like the $10,000 mark was a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. There were a number of people early in the year saying $10,000 by the end.

It will be interesting to see where it goes from here.

Last few bubbles had phases of

* hey, bitcoin is going up

* Bitcoin is going way up, This rate seems unsustainable.

* OK, this is fucking crazy now. (this lasts about a day)

* <POP!>

I'd say we're in the late stages of the second phase.

Seriously? It was $6000 a month ago... to me this is firmly in the fucking crazy stage. It feels a lot like the last run up to $1,100 before the 80% drop (I cashed out at $1,000 just before the pop by dumb luck, but failed to buy back in).

or it could go to 100k, or 1mn in 6 months time. It's impossible to predict.

The crazy thing is that the intrinsic value of bitcoin has gone down recently (ie. you can't really use it for payments now), and yet the price still goes up. If BTC really is going to become an alternate value store to Gold, this makes total sense.

Meh. Bitcoin has seen 5 or 6 years with 10 fold increases.

There's a FOMO narrative of "$1,000,000 BTC if it goes mainstream" going around which has fuelled speculative investments from some people I know (myself included - obviously using money I am totally OK with losing given how far-fetched an outcome it is).

I would like to see a calculation of $1M/BTC and the assumptions.

Yes, that was written at the very beginning of bitcoin. The thought is that bitcoin can be divided into 100,000,000 satoshis and a dollar can be divided into 100 cents, so to make 1 satoshi = 1 cent means 1 bitcoin = 1,000,000 dollars.

The true believers really imagine it will replace paper currency.

So there is no need to sell.

This is the correct answer. Also, many of them have sold previously for reasons and lived/ live with severe regret. This is how HODLers are born.

Personally, my sell threshold is when my BTC is worth enough (after CG taxes) to pay off my student loans. Given the latest price increases, it's getting very close :)

I think more and more people will start to realize this is the 'local' currency of the web. I plan on trying to exit fiat (USD) completely in the next decade. Exciting times!!

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