Simpson's Paradox and the Hot Hand in Basketball (1995)
fermatslibrary.com
fermatslibrary.com
I wonder if it holds in other contexts.
To me a hot hand is only something that can exist in the flow of the game. It is not about making shots. It is about making contested shots and quick decisions. A player with a hot hand is one that is feeling especially focused and confident for a specific period of time. Ideally a player tries to hold onto their focus and confidence for the entire game, but unless they have a Buddha-like nature that is just not possible.
http://node101.psych.cornell.edu/sec/pubPeople/tdg1/Gilo.Val...
i also don't necessarily like calling it a fallacy, as i've definitely run into some people who misinterpret that word, basically assuming that there can never be autocorrelation in data, and anyone who thinks there is must be falling prey to a logical fallacy.
Yeah, like Kay Thompson dropping 37 points in 1 quarter and not missing any shoots. Even himself seems confused about what’s going on.
That model I've just described does not disprove the hot hand. It does show that an occasion of a good shooting run also is not evidence that it exists.
In the flow of the game, it's hard for hot hand to exist and what you describe is `the zone`. But in a free throws game, there surely is a hot hand. I always get the first few hit/miss, but when I finally feel calibrated with my stance and my hand `whip` and get a hit I like, then the next one is probably a hit again and after that I can streak for at least 4-5 shots.
It's a really interesting problem to analyse.