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Comment by potatote | Hacker News Reader

> Once you account for hours worked, time spent in the workforce, and debt accumulated to achieve their income, a doctor will only have a 10-20% boost in lifetime earnings compared to a UPS driver.

Do you have any reference to back that up? Not doubting it. Just curious.

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I did this math when I was 27 and wanted to leave programming to enter medicine. When I realized I wouldn’t come ahead financially until near retirement (and that was assuming I’d make a lot less in programming than I actually have) I decided to pass. It didn’t matter what specialty I picked except a few like plastic surgery or dermatology and there’s no guarantee of getting a residency in those. That’s also not considering that extreme hours worked in medicine and the loss of your youth. My spreadsheet also didn’t account for the fact I’m making mid-six figures in programming already at my mid thirties (!!)

Medicine is not a place to go to become rich. If you already have the brains and aptitude to overachieve in medicine you can succeed elsewhere even more greatly AND retire younger.

I would love to know what job you have in programming making $500k in your mid-30s.

Base salary is low-six figures. I work at [insert deca-unicorn here] and a lot of that comp is locked inside non-public stock (I've been here a long time), so it could go to $0... or it could be enough to retire on. That's just the nominal risk-adjusted value of my compensation. Even assuming my stock is worth $0, just my base salary puts me ahead of going into medicine. The only way going into medicine makes financial sense over programming is if you fast track your way into it from high school and end up in a lucrative specialty, and even then it doesn't come that far ahead. Given the loss of your entire youth, I'd say it comes out even at best, unless medicine is a natural passion of yours.

I think that factoid comes from that shitty graph where the suppose that the UPS driver starts working straight at the moment they turn 18 and they will have maximum pay rate that is available for the UPS driver position.

While in reality, the average wait time to become a driver from loading is 11 years. During that time you make about $13/hr part time where the schedule can be horrible and you could work less than 15 hours a week. When you do become a driver it takes another ~2 years (on avg) to get your own route until then you are a part time worker and your hours worked will fluctuate a lot over the year. The first year is paid at 17.50-18.50/hr (~$36,000/yr @ 40 hours a week) and then goes up.

> they turn 18 and they will have maximum pay rate that is available for the UPS driver position.

That's not the assumption. It's that they receive median pay their entire career, which would be reasonable if they never left their job. Getting paid 60, 70, and 80 over a 3 year period is the same as working three years at 70 ignoring inflation and investments. That's the assumption

> While in reality, the average wait time to become a driver from loading is 11 years.

Then compare it to the countless other blue collar trade skills that don't require any educational debt. The point continues to stand unless you want to focus on the example rather than the concept.

This is a fairly old source, but it demonstrates the concept.

http://www.er-doctor.com/doctor_income.html

In case people don't bother reading it in depth, here is one of it's updated links:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/70000-per-year-start-now-kevi...

I ran the numbers recently and the numbers were even more grim, but I'd need to track down all my sources again.

I just think the main point is that income is not the number to focus on. Wealth is the end result of the equation, and income is only one part of that.

He doesn't have a reference because it's nonsensical.

Say it takes you 15 extra years to get into the workforce over a UPS driver, that you're saddled with $400k of debt and that UPS driver is the highest compensated driver in history at $100k.

$350k over 30 years is $10,500,000 - $400k = $10.1MM

$100k over 45 years is $4.5MM

Your net earnings is >200%

You don't get it, you have to factor in the hours worked.

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