Doomsday Preppers Are Starting to Switch from Gold to Bitcoin
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
I see a potential point of failure.
Only a decentralized blockchain is needed for confidence in the data on it.
Ubiquitous internet is not needed, especially for the consumer.
Whether there are mere internet cafes, or data runners like the pony express updating nodes occasionally over long remote distances, we do have an asset which can be used offline.
On the consumer side, transactions can be signed offline, and broadcasted later.
Offline, consumers would be able to tell people their bitcoin address, would be able to check the balance of their bitcoin address, and would be able to create transactions with someone else.
For the consumer they could still store unlimited amounts and take up no space, it would still be infinitely divisible, and securable.
edit: hello downvotes, my argument isn't whether it would be more useful than some other bartered good, I would prefer if you had an actual rebuttal to the technology features I described, because downvotes make it seem incorrect to people less exposed to this technology and I'm confident that its not.
- There's a vanishingly narrow band of "apocalypse" where the internet is gone, but everyone still has electricity and computers and the time and ability to agree on digital consensus protocols.
- Confirmation time on the blockchain is a high multiple of ping time. Bitcoin has 10 minute blocks based on an assumption that all miners will learn about messages within 1 minute, and it doesn't consider transactions confirmed until 6 blocks have passed.[1] If it takes a week for messages to travel through your pony express network, then transactions are final in 7106 = 420 days, which is a long time to hang out waiting for your transaction to clear in a post-apocalyptic wasteland.
- Security assumptions. Bitcoin security depends on some assumptions like lack of prolonged network segmentation, or ability of each honest user to connect to at least one other honest user,[2] and it seems ... at least non-obvious that any given participant in a pony-express network can verify that the network's security assumptions have been met.
[1] https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Help:FAQ#Why_do_I_have_to_wait_10...
Bitcoin would be merely reduced to a slow settlement layer, but this can still allow a network managed supply over greater distances than someone's bottlecap or cigarette trading system.
I think it's fairly safe to say that a scenario with even sporadical internet is not quite a doomsday scenario yet. Or even having enough reliable power to afford running Bitcoin miners and other such luxurious things like running computers at all when survival is at stake.
In times of crisis people tend to barter and trade goods they need, not money.
I am just imagining a bunch of post-apocalyptic farmers in a faraway China suddenly becoming pure slaves when someone comes with a few million BTC from Africa. Isn't happening.
The only reason BTC would survive is if it would provide the means for inter-planetary-government-independent currency. But that's not going to happen since double-spend is only alleviated with a centralised (as in - globally available) blockchain.
I'm actually kind of sad that I didn't mine a few myself back when I thought it was a passing fad...
Then I lost them while reinstalling Linux, and didn't think much of it. sigh
people have broadcasted bitcoin transactions via long range radio frequency before.
And why would anyone actually bother when they can just use something that doesn't require power to spend? Especially considering that international trade would be toast anyway.
So your point is invalid.
A big network of ISPs like what we have today? That could be destroyed.
Computers communicating to each other over long distances? I don't think it is hard - or so low priority to implement - that the disorganized nomadic doomsday scenario perpetuates itself for very long.
Recently read an incredible story of someone who lived through absolute lawlessness in Bosnia... Even gold/cash lost value quickly, replaced by barter/trade. His main advice was to stock up on batteries, lighters, weapons, and ammo.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_Eve/Sarajevo_12/24
The section on "Background and Writing" tells an amazing story.
To bring it back inline, maybe a prepper needs a cello too.
My grandmother used to tell me stories on how she stole cigarettes from american soldiers after WW2 to sell them for food later. Money, coins, gold, anything else, had literal zero useful value.
The contents of the bug-out bag is not unlike one would expect in a first-person shooter video game. Perhaps that's where they get their ideas?
Now they're adding bitcoin to the mix. Practical.
What you really need if society collapses is adaptability, resourcefulness, really good negotiation skills and like-minded people that help each other out.
Probably because Alcohol and Food can be fairly easily self made (germany, tradition of beer brewing, you'll find someone, also lots of farmes, even today)
On the other hand, tabacco is from overseas and requires some difficult manufacturing. Same for bullets, mostly.
I think alcohol and food would stay cheap. The things that would replace money are things you absolutely need but are hard to produce without modern civilation. Ie, cigarettes, bullets, gasoline, rifles and toilet paper.
But I expect "X" to be pretty long and pretty bad. Like Mad Max 2 bad i.e. years and maybe half the population dead.
Having assets in a non-inflatable currency can be very good hedging against this kind of scenario.
It is. I think it's doomsday when all the stores are closed on Christmas.
In a true total collapse event, even gold won't feed you.
Because in a world without hope, throwing snakes is a viable answer to any problem.
Really? I think they're just allocating more resources (both mental and material) to a possible future that most of us think is low probability. There are other ways to fall into the trap than crazy/paranoid ;-)
In most cases they seem like people who are terrified of a few overly specific (low probability) events to the detriment of their health, relationships and community.
What concerns me is both that there now seems to be media specifically designed to prey upon these people's fears and then turn around and sell them products to assuage those.
I guess one advantage of buying the property now (and vacationing there a few times a year) is if it is a relatively unknown area, and you can gain an advantage by familiarizing yourself with it.