Tesla is 'going out of business,' says former GM exec Bob Lutz | Hacker News Reader

Tesla is 'going out of business,' says former GM exec Bob Lutz

cnbc.com

10 pointskushti7 comments

At least some points he makes are true.

Battery tech

Tesla don't own any important battery technology or patents.

Main battery manufacturers are Panasonic, LG Chem and Samsung SDI. Panasonic is the leader and Tesla’s manufacturing partner, but LG Chem has made lots of progress and they are supplying to GM. Panasonic is rapidly expanding their own battery production is going to sell to other manufacturers also.

fixed cost and mass production

Tesla has no experience with large scale mass production (producing less than 100,000 cars annually is not big league). They have struggled with quality and delivery even with modest volumes for years, it will be harder when volumes grow. They don't survive massive recalls if the quality is not improving.

They have to get Model 3 into mass production within a year or they will run out of money and investor's and customers patience. Nobody want's to wait years for a car. Roadster and Semi are just distractions. Tesla's future is on Model 3.

Wishful thinking. The main issue with Model 3 is just that they can't make batteries fast enough. This is a solvable issue, and it would normally be considered a "good problem to have" (not being able to make products fast enough to meet demand).

The only reason this is seen so negatively right now is mainly because Musk has set such high standards for Tesla by trying to increase production by 5x within 12-18 months and hoping everything will go perfectly smooth.

Good problems to have are still problems and can still cause you to go out of business. Car manufacturing is all about logistics, quality and capital management. Fail at any one of those three and your car company will fail. There is a pretty good reason why there has been a huge consolidation happening in the car industry over the last 30 years, getting those things right isn't easy at all.

Hmmm... Didn't Pontiac go out of business recently? I thought they were owned by GM. Am I wrong?

iirc they wound down a few internal brands several years ago following the financial crisis.

Well, he would say that, wouldn't he.

Same things he's been saying for years, yes.

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