Is The Guitar Market Really Dying? | Hacker News Reader

Is The Guitar Market Really Dying?

vintageguitarprice.com

40 pointshimynamesdave74 comments

As a life-long guitarist, and skeptic of capitalism, I have an anecdote: I own a few high-quality guitars. They have served me well for many a decade, and they are still in perfect condition. Why buy any more guitars?

Perhaps the total number of guitars in circulation is enough? Businesses seem to think that there should be infinite growth forever, but that seems ridiculous to me. I don't think capitalism has a good answer to this problem. Obviously the manufacturers wish for people to buy more and more guitars every year or they go out of business. How can we reward them for a job well done now that more aren't needed?

That would be my question, too. People were puzzled when tablet sales came to a crawl, until they started to consider whether people stopped buying them because they were good enough and still worked.

I mean realistically, how many guitars does one need? I'm an amateur bass player. I have a cheap-ass practice bass and, if I get some pocket change, I may buy a $1500 professional bass. I would think that should last me for the next ten years or so. If I become a professional musician, I might buy more, but for your average slob, that's really not tenable.

My personal answer to "how many guitars do you need?" is basically one for each tuning that I use regularly. Unless it's simply changing one string from E to D, re-tuning a whole guitar is a pain in the ass and just being able to swap guitars is a lot nicer. I have one for standard tuning, one tuned like a cello, and one in open D-minor.

I do admit if you're playing a bass guitar this rule isn't as applicable.

My dad loves to tell a story about a Q&A session with Norm Abram of PBS [Edit: This Old House, New Yankee Workshop] fame, which your answer reminds me of. Why does Norm own an entire drawer full of routers?

Well, he used to ask himself the same question. All these companies kept giving him free tools as a promotion. Especially routers. He had dozens of them. WTF do I need all these routers for?

It occurred to him that if at the start of a project you put a bit into a router and don't touch it until the end of the project, all of your routed edges will match exactly. Even if you screw up and have to redo a piece. So he kept enough routers to do that. He still gets teased about it by his coworkers though.

Took me a bit to figure out you weren't talking about a guy with dozens of network devices.

Heh, sorry about that. Putting bits in a router? What does it mean?!

He must have a huge shop to just have dozens of routers lying around.

Hey, I also have one of my guitars tuned in fifth ~like a cello From low to high CGDAAe, with custom gauge strings to match the neck tension. One A is wound, the other is full...

How did you tune yours exactly?

CGDAEE. I like the ringing unison of the highest E. I also have a piecemeal set of strings for tensions as well, starting with what I think is a .062 for the low C, and a .010 for the high Es.

Check out Gibson Les Paul Robot :)

How do you do the cello tuning? Assuming you're not using a tenor guitar, it's CGDA on the lowest four, then do you just keep going up in 5ths to EB for the last two strings or do something else?

Not GP, but I also have a guitar tuned in fifths.

A high `B` string wouldn't last 10 minutes... I've seen schemes that have a G there, I went for two CGDAAE, which is not too hard a change from the usual guitar tuning (though I ultimately dedicated a guitar to that tuning, as did the GP).

I go for double high E strings. CGDAEE. The ringing unison is pleasurable to me and my hands are large enough to finger minor and major thirds easily.

I've been playing the same bass guitar and mandolin for several years but I could think of multiple reasons to buy a new instrument:

1) Getting interested in a new style of music or a new technique

2) GAS (gear acquisition syndrome, something many musicians suffer from)

3) Wear out/damage

Capitalism and the unrealistic idea of infinite sales growth is what gives rise to "services" and "subscriptions", no?

Hush! Don't speak of such things, or before you know it there will be DRM enforced IoT dongles with 4G cellular radios, requiring a subscription plan and annual fee before the guitar pick-ups will serialize their signal to a 1/4 inch patch cable.

We regret to inform you that we will be discontinuing server support for your myFender.

Musical instruments are one area where "services" are quite valuable. Anyone with enough time and effort could learn to play entirely on their own and maintain (or build) their own instrument, but for many people it makes sense to take lessons and to pay someone to repair or adjust their instrument as needed. This is one reason why guitar shops are at least partially protected from being driven out of business by Amazon: most have a guitar technician on staff who can troubleshoot problems and fix things.

The high end guitars are usually pretty boring, but it's really nice to have one or two. I'd rather have a decent variety, but one or two of those can by a high quality guitar. My favorite guitar is still my 60s Norma (Teisco) with gold foil pickups. Other favorites include 80s Korean Squier with new pickups, 60s Yamaha acoustic, 60s 1444 Silvertone/Danelectro bass. A lot of the new Fender/Squier guitars are really interesting too.

I'd probably buy a nice Les Paul Jr, Tele, or Ric, and it'd probably be my main guitar, but owning 10k+ worth of Les Pauls sounds boring.

Be sure you like finished fretboards before buying a new Rickenbacker. There are unfinished fretboard models--some 620's and some walnut ones--but they are the exception.

I love my 360/6, but all the other guitars you list have unfinished fretboards.

> I don't think capitalism has a good answer to this problem.

Let me put on my capitalist apologist hat.

It used to be the case that people bought light bulbs regularly. When I grew up, my parents had a cache of incandescent light bulbs - then they started buying fluorescent lights and we replaced bulbs much less often. Now, they're starting to buy LED lights and I don' think an LED has ever 'burned out' on them.

The revenues are down, but as people shift from buying disposable light bulbs to durable light bulbs, they're willing to pay more for better bulbs.

So now manufacturers are competing on building better bulbs / bulbs that are more valuable. It's a really good thing for the world, we're using fewer resources and making a better product.

I don't know much about guitars but I'd bet it's better to make high quality guitars than low quality guitars right now. And you're absolutely right that we're getting closer to the 'right amount' of guitars in the world. At some point, we'll really only need to build guitars to replace ones that we lose.

The capitalist answer to businesses who count on infinite growth is "market correction". Either guitar makers will find a way to stay in business or they'll go bankrupt and free up resources for better use.

Aren't incandescent light bulbs pretty much the poster child of the problems with capitalism's expectations of infinite growth? It is possible to create incandescent light bulbs with extremely long life time, but it doesn't make much economic sense, so no one does.

Choose your own adventure on whether this is a good or bad thing.

I'd defend the light industry as an example of creative destruction, candles and lanterns gave way to incandescent, florescent, and L.E.D.

I have no doubt that someone nerfed their incandescent bulbs to make more money, but that probably made it easier for people to buy alternatives so good riddence.

It's akin to oil - the oil producers had their day in the sun when it was $100 barrel but because it was $100/barrel, people started to talk about how to use less oil or extract hydrocarbons more cheaply.

Now we have electric cars and fracking. Sure, capitalism is the reason OPEC got greedy, but capitalism is the reason we explored alternatives.

If it's an ideology, capitalism is best practiced as 'understanding the questions' than 'knowing the answers'. The questions capitalists should ask are 1) how do I add value? 2) How do I capture enough value to invest in adding more value?

If they think the answer to their questions is "make enough money that it doesn't matter" they're going to walk the same road to hell that Enron, Worldcom, and Saudi Arabia find themselves on.

> I own a few high-quality guitars. They have served me well for many a decade, and they are still in perfect condition. Why buy any more guitars?

This is the exact same question my wife asks. About bicycles, too.

Let alone watches :-)

> and skeptic of capitalism

Well, I'll bet you bought at least one of those guitars, didn't you? Welcome to the capital market. If guitar makers can't sell guitars, and do something else instead, then that's no less capitalistic.

It is entirely possible to be a skeptic of capitalism, its application and its effects while engaging in a market in which capitalists provide goods and services. It is also possible to do so and sell your own labour-power (which is what workers do). To say that one's skepticism or criticism is invalid because of participation is equivalent to saying that the feudal serf may not complain about his position: after all, his pick and clothes were provided by his lord. He ought to be grateful!

Some interesting and related Google Trends:

- "Learn Guitar": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=learn%20...

- "Play Guitar": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=play%20g...

- "Guitar vs Piano": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=guitar,p...

As a lifetime guitar player and owner of way too many, I think what I've seen (and keep in mind this is only anecdotal) is that boutique guitar makers are making a big comeback while traditional mass producers are seeing less interest. If I'm going to spend $2500-7500 on a top of the line guitar (that is often an art piece as well) I'd rather work with a craft builder and get something unique to my specs versus a mass produced Fender strat or Gibson Les Paul.

Bingo! I'd say it's similar to the craft beer movement.

Exactly... I think my generation specifically (Gen Y) is 1) starting to come into having disposable income (hitting our 30's mostly), 2) skeptical of traditional marketing, big corporations (to some extent), etc, 3) learning to value craftsmen/women and quality goods over brand names.

It's an interesting shift to watch.

I know you can't trust me because I'm just another stranger on the internet, but I worked for Fender briefly in their marketing department a few years back (as a web developer).

I can unequivocally say that they still care about valuing craftsmanship of their products. It may not be to the level of an individual craftsperson constructing a one-off instrument, but it is there.

At least, that's what I perceived while I was there. But take my words for whatever they're worth; I don't play guitar, nor did I take advantage of learning while I was there (part of me regrets not doing so, as the employee discounts were generous, but I still couldn't justify another potentially expensive hobby).

I definitely believe you. Both Gibson and Fender are awesome companies and do make great instruments with amazing quality control. They're as American as apple pie as well... I have zero hate for either brand, but personally for my money, if I'm spending big, I'd go for something really unique.. For example, I'd really love a Jersey Girl or a Robert de la Garza:

http://jerseygirlhg.com/composition/branches/spot/images/02....

https://static.wixstatic.com/media/2b245d_55366c7247ed436480...

Those will set you back roughly $6000 each though :(

http://jerseygirlhg.com/composition

I can't speak to Gibson, but I know that if you have enough money, you can certainly get Fender to work with you on a custom spec guitar.

Yeah all of the builders have custom shops, but usually when I see "custom shop" come from big companies like Gibson, it's basically "modified les paul" with cooler wood and different pickups.

Maybe, but isolating particular trends from overall changes in search interests is challenging.

Here's the trend for "music": https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=music

which is also decreasing. Is music dying?

> Is music dying?

Is that a rhetorical question?

Exhibit A: https://youtu.be/-toRUB2ctcY

Software changed the industry. There are more efficient places to search for music than Google. They are more efficient because from search to playing or playlist is one click.

Reverb.com was #18 on the Inc. 5000 this year, so there is definitely still potential in selling musical instruments. Guitar is more niche than it used to be, though. The rock stars these days are rappers and DJs and they don't play guitar. You have to diversify your offerings (which I think the success of Reverb.com shows)

> The rock stars these days are rappers and DJs and they don't play guitar.

And nearly every kid can afford a shitty chinese USB->MIDI controller and a cracked version of Live/Logic/FL Studio. The DAW and a controller is the weapon of choice for today's pop music industry. The fact that guitar is dying as "mainstream" shouldn't come as much of a surprise.

We just need to wait a generation. Then digitally generated pop will be seen as"mom and dad's music" and real instruments will be novel and interesting.

Maybe guitar makers are not innovating? Other stringed instruments have basically remained the same for centuries, but electric guitars were born out of modifications to standard guitars. Hendrix was a guitar hacker. Most of the electric guitars on the market today are no different than those sold 30 years ago. There are a few new ideas (midi accessories, built in effects, the Moog guitar, more than 6 strings, Steinberger's, cryogenically treated strings, better tremolo's, guitar synths) but few people are into hacking guitars any more. Your mom and dad may play electric guitar, it isn't radical or rebellious. And few are trying to invent new styles of playing either. So the sound and use of guitars has remained fairly static for a long time (except for Fred Frith!). Perhaps this explains the recent interest in Eurorack synthesizers? A return to creating fundamentally new sounds by tinkering with the basic elements of sound.

It's kind of like the smartphone market, the manufacturers have tried all the easy improvements (bigger screens, faster CPU's, better GPU's, thin bodies) but haven't tried the more difficult things (unusual sensors, regional peer-2-peer communication, serious FDA approved medical sensing/apps, light based communication, UWB links into IoT networks, etc.) Though AI chips may result in some significant new ideas. Maybe deep learning AI chips for guitars would rev the market? You teach your guitar some notes/chords and then it can generate different arrangements/timings/bends for you that actually sound interesting? Maybe not since deep learning can only mimic what it learns.

Music tastes run in cycles. If vinyl can make a comeback so might guitars.

That said, anecdotally, kids today don't do adversity; they want instant gratification. Learning to play guitar takes time, lots of it. In the current climate a comeback seems pretty unlikely.

Oddly, there are some amazing young guitarists... though obviously, anyone who is already great has likely been at it for 10+ years, so there may be a significant shortage 10 years from now.

Yeah, I always associated your generation's music with hard work and discipline. Jimmy Hendrix and The Who and the like.

My era was more The Clash, Joy Division, and the like :)

Eh, get off my lawn with your generalizations about "kids today" =/

Maybe at least provide one of your anecdotes?

How about I get off your cloud? ;)

That said, anecdotally, kids today don't do adversity; they want instant gratification

My experience:

In the 1990's, a kid given the video game "weapons station of a starship" probably starts pressing controls and blowing stuff up.

In 2014, a kid presented with the video game "weapons station of a starship" freezes and meekly waits for instruction from an adult.

Guitars (or any musical instrument) are essentially REPLs and therefore do provide instant feedback and often gratification.

Learning to do anything well takes a lot of time, so that statement is true == true. Learning to have fun with something often happens (and in the case of a guitar) quickly.

Lowering the barrier to accessing guitars, mixers, computers and software to get a recording up is the real challenge, because that takes cash.

If we're dealing in stereotypes, guitar playing as an indicator of work ethic seems like an odd choice.

Work ethic? Nah. That's a different conversation for another day.

Kind of disagree. Kids are still learning the piano, violin, etc. In my view learning how to play pop songs on your guitar is sort of an instant gratification approach to music. These days a lot of folks just use rapping or electronic production in that niche.

Yes. Agree. Some are. But certainly the "is there an app for that?" generation has to be effected by that mindset.

Or maybe I just need new friends? Maybe their kids will be different? :)

There's a surprising amount of cork-sniffing that goes on in the guitar world, and I think that plays a role in slowing down the decline of the guitar market.

Just try searching for advice on what guitar to buy, and you'll be inundated with people claiming that tiny little differences (e.g. rosewood vs maple fretboards or lacquer vs poly finishes on an electric) have huge effects on the overall sounds, which is clearly not true. The idea that there's always something better to buy drives some people to keep purchasing. I'm sure there's some degree of this with other instruments, but guitar seems to be particularly bad.

I suspect that this should really be thought of as, "The biggest buying opportunity, ever!" in the guitar market.

A lot of people are predicting an "ebay guitar apocalypse" as the mass effect of guitar owners start passing away. Because "nobody plays them anymore", the inheritors of dad's property will just put the guitar collection on ebay or donate them.

Your dad's fancy Paul Reed Smith guitar that cost $3000 will only be worth a fraction of that when a million other used PRS guitars flood the market.

It's an interesting prediction.

I think that eBay is already affecting price in a different way: buyers and sellers tend to use eBay price to figure out what a guitar is worth before buying and selling in person. Since used guitars are a risky purchase (there could be a lot of things wrong that don't show up in pictures), the eBay price is artificially depressed. However, since the eBay price is seen as the "fair market price", it deflates the price everywhere.

This could go the other way, as well: if sellers refuse to sell a certain kind of guitar on eBay, the price could become inflated.

Because "nobody plays them anymore", the inheritors of dad's property will just put the guitar collection on ebay or donate them.

You already have this in instrument markets for traditional music. Trad musicians are minorities in the general culture, but their market demand for once-mainstream mass produced instruments of yesteryear can still support prices. (Paolo Soprani B,C button accordion, anyone?) Sure, you still have the occasional find, where someone sells something for 1/10th the price they could have gotten out of ignorance.

I wonder if everyone is going to be satisfied with making music on a laptop? I also wonder if playing a guitar is ever going to stop getting people laid? If you have both of these conditions, then guitars might go the way of the Flageolett. Historically, "outdated" instruments flooding markets at bargain prices have tended to give rise to new musical opportunities in underprivileged communities. Occasionally, they give rise to new genres.

Did you know you can buy a $350 "Gibson Les Paul" that says "made in the USA" on AliExpress? The guitar in question is CNC cut and then hand assembled. I may speak from experience when I say the item is very high quality and is a pretty danged good guitar.

The point here being that it's an industry what are the American players have not modernized their manufacturing process... We live in an amazing age where you can own an extraordinary instrument for very little money.

Link? [1] gives me no results for that price range and search keywords.

[1] https://www.aliexpress.com/wholesale?minPrice=300&maxPrice=4...

Didn't see any marketing themselves as Gibsons, but here's a "Gretsch" White Falcon in that range: https://www.aliexpress.com/item/Hot-selling-white-Gretsch-fa...

Everything old is new again. I wasn't even a teenager when everybody was convinced the guitar bands were gone for good. As mentioned somewhere else in the thread, back in the sixties the same history.

I'm been playing for almost 30 years, and what I've seen in the last few ones is, I can buy a guitar for 300 bucks that beats anything that I owned as a teenager for that same price. And I'm not even touching the amp market, it's crazy what the same money can buy in terms of quality and flexibility.

I'm hesitant about this, but I'm half sure this deflactionaty process is going to actually popularize playing the guitar in the middle term.

I would love to buy a new guitar. I had a PRS in the 90’s and loved it. I never should have sold it.

A lot of guitars (PRS included) are now made cheaply overseas. They’re decent, but to me they’re still not good enough. I think they’re crap.

It’s a shame the industry has fallen, but the industry did this to itself. But rest assured, guitar rock will eventually make a comeback. Music trends in waves.

Will the guitar industry be ready when it does?

at Bandhub (http://bandhub.com) we try to solve a fundamental problem most recreational musicians have... we give them a community of like-minded people who care about their music, and the tools to make music together online. Musicians who get engaged in Bandhub obtain meaningful social experiences. We believe this market needs to be disrupted in a similar way to what happened with online social gaming

Relevant discussion -- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14627673

Brings to mind the quote "Guitar groups are on their way out, Mr Epstein."

This was a music exec telling The Beatles' manager why he wouldn't sign them.

Electronic samples are the new guitars.

That is ridiculous. Electronic music production is a completely separate market.

A separate market that is taking market share from guitars...

To some extent, everything competes in markets. I could spend $500 on a guitar, or on a clunky car. Which one should I get? Well, it kind of depends on my needs.

Both Electronic music production and guitars exist in the "music production and playing" market. It makes sense that they'd compete.

Are we sure people aren't just shifting to buying more used guitars on Craigslist or something?

On just about every observable measure ... including cruise ships[1], guitar is dying in popularity. You might get a few minor bumps of new interest because of recent artists like Taylor Swift but overall, guitar is way down.

I learned guitar and never imagined that the instrument would fade but that's exactly what has happened. Electronic music and laptops are this generation's instrument of choice.

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobbyowsinski/2013/10/08/the-de...

I think there are 3 reasons why the guitar is "dying" as the instrument of choice:

1. The explosion in popularity of EDM in the mid 00's to early 10's, and the prevalence of EDM elements now dominating pop music rather than the notion of a backing band; most pop bands now feature a guitarist, but the guitar is secondary to synths and samples if it is heard at all.

2. The rise of hip-hop, mixtape culture online, and hip-hop focused rock music in the 90's and early 00's, shifted popular rock music and the cultural zeitgeist away from a focus on guitar-driven rock music. Once again samples and synths became the focus, even in punk music. This lead to a new focus: "indie" rock and the internet could make anyone with a laptop famous.

3. The general decline in rock music quality. I might be alone in this opinion, but popular rock music in the early 00's to today remains bland and the guitar equally so. This era also saw the rebirth of hardcore and more extreme forms of metal where the guitar remains the focus, and creativity abounds, but out of the public eye.

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