Australia's economy is a house of cards | Hacker News Reader

Australia's economy is a house of cards

medium.com

69 pointssiquick10 comments

As an Aussie, a very confronting read. You're kind of aware of various problems brewing on the horizon, that China's demand for iron ore is low, that our housing costs are too high, and therefore mortgages / household debt are too high, all of this. But then when you weigh it all up the feeling of being in trouble is very real, and we've had 6 years of flaky leadership that's too worried about political maneuvers to worry about these structural problems.

There are some things that give me hope though. We've built a number of great marketplace startups, including Freelancer (where the author works), Envato, 99 designs etc. So that's a strength, and the tech scene in general has grown massively in the last 5 years. Our mining industry might be in the slumps but we pioneered some pretty great drone tech, self-driving tech, and remote operations stuff. And if you get creative with remote work and global teams, the timezones we're in can be seen as strategic assets.

There are smart people here. But like most other liberal democracies, we're really divided and have a large voting block that just wants to keep the status quo and isn't being honest about the challenges. But hey, we just voted yes to marriage equality so the electorate has some hope left.

As an Englishman living in Australia for 6 years, its become clear over time that people here just don't really seem to care that much about what's going on outside of their own sphere.

The "she'll be right" attitude has its merits but I can't help but be concerned that the country is sleepwalking into rough periods.

The overarching reliance of the government on tax (from tobacco, to pokies, to cycling fines) that the author touched upon is truly worrying when there aren't really any solid earners for the economy. And that's without even addressing the real estate horrorshow that's going on around us. Uber drivers owning 8 properties?!

Bah. Australia has segued from Japan to China. India is next.

There are 3 billion people desperate for the sort of first world accommodation that only steel makes possible. We'll be fine.

> We've built a number of great marketplace startups

We are a tiny (population) country, and to expect American or China levels of opportunity is unfair. Australia will always be a place with different trade offs. If you want billions, move. If you want full-on tech, move.

But if you want Bondi beach, the opera house, arthouse cinema, great food with a decent job and some work-life balance, or can leverage a larger population base and work from home, this is the best place there is.

Aussie who left in 2001, now in China.

There seem to be two key predictions in here: (1) coming collapse of Australian housing market, and broader economy (2) coming collapse of China.

I am not a great believer in the latter, because based in China for most of my career I still feel China is the only place to go to get things made, which everyone wants to consume despite the requisite economic and political overheads. I selfishly hope the first comes true as maybe then I can actually afford a nice place on the harbour and a boat :)

As an Australian 16 year old I feel a bit fucked.

If you're reading HN as a 16 year old I like the chances that you'll be entrepreneurial enough to make your own way even in a bad economy. Either just finding the opportunities locally, or creating things for a global market, or packing a bag and going somewhere more promising. If you're willing to keep growing / hacking / changing, and especially if you have tech skills, you'll probably do a lot better in a downturn than much of the rest of the country.

I graduated high school at the start of the GFC and I was pretty scared but everything turned out fine. If push comes to shove, there's always America.

Actually that feeling will only occur when war breaks out with China and Australia is the first US ally to fall :(

The focus on real estate as the means to wealth is spot on. It's essentially the go-to retirement strategy for essentially every Aussie I've met

Previously posted: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15691154

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