Rethinking 'Fuck You' money
tonywright.com
tonywright.com
But then he suggests you aim for “f@#$ you influence and credibility” because it "allows you to charge $30k+ for a 1 hour speaking engagement". But I know people who used to make $10k per speaking engagement and they aren't getting much work lately. In my experience the first thing people cut in a bad economy are the expensive speakers and while influence can probably get you a magazine column I wouldn't expect that to pay much at all.
So if the problem was finding a stable income in a bad economy his solution really didn't solve it.
What he's saying is influence is a better strategy than money and I'm disagreeing with the truth of that statement.
On the other hand, I think most things that get you a lot of money also gets you a lot of credibility, so going from just f-ck you money to f-ck you money plus f-ck you credibility isn't going to take much effort; you just have to be a bit more public, a bit more vocal about what you are doing.
So, no more lavish all employee trips to tropical islands and no more expensive speakers.
Time to get up and do some more work instead of talking about your previous successes.
And about dying penniless, who cares, you can't take it with you anyway. If you plan on passing your wealth to your kids better do it while you are alive and scale back accordingly. In plenty of countries that's the better strategy tax wise anyway.
Personally I'd like to see influence and credibility more as an end than a means to speaking engagements and high-billing consulting though...
1. If you are bottom-end expensive, you get cut quickly. (e.g. $10k speaking engagement)
2. If you are middle-end expensive, you get cut... but not as quickly. (e.g. $20-30k)
3. If you are high-end expensive, you get cut dead last.
My husband and I did very specific, highly sought-after freelance services in the realm of visualization design/JavaScript. We are definitely high-end expensive.
As the economy went into the shitter, we only got more and more work.
Why? Because clients/customers often feel that the low-end and mid-end expensive people don't fully pay for themselves. Those people are basically getting "excess" budget, as opposed to being truly sought after.
Or they are a consolation prize: "Well, we could get Tony Robbins but he's $80k, then again, there's this dude, he's kinda interesting, how do you feel about $10K?"
Once even that $10k may be a stretch, they decide not to hire anyone at all.
If so, this is a pretty encouraging sign.
It's depressing.
If you play it smart then this 'depression' is an opportunity in disguise, more of a correction than a true depression.
The 1929 stock market crash set the stage for World War II, and it took until well after World War II before the world had finally recovered from it.
That was a depression.
The current situation is, compared to that, a mere bump in the road. As long as we're not seeing hyper-inflation, the general population still has food on the table and you can actually think about where you're going to take your holiday this year we're not even close.
The really bad effects of what is going on in the market are still limited to a number of markets, mostly financing and the more expensive consumer items.
There are knock on effects that hurt other industries but so far without the nightmare scenarios coming true.
One thing is for sure, the time of 'easy money' from stocks or real estate investments is going to be over for a while.
"It's depressing" I know it is. But we as a population have to realize we are in a depression, not just a run of the mill recession like the mass media would have you believe, so we can react accordingly and not doom our future offsprings to even greater suffering.
"As long as we're not seeing hyper-inflation, the general population still has food on the table and you can actually think about where you're going to take your holiday this year we're not even close." Hyperinflation, not yet. 25% unemployed in the last depression, but they had soup lines to not go hungry. US has ~20% unemployment, and we have food stamps/unemployment benefits mailed to our house. As for the holiday..well you and I, we're in the lucky 80%.
Also, society as a whole is so much richer now than it was in the last 'great depression' that even those that are down on their luck have it comparatively easy compared with 80 years ago. It's a world of a difference.
That doesn't mean there aren't individuals that are on really hard times, but there are only more of them, it's not like the phenomenon is unique to 2010.
Sounds like we're back in the 80's - 'the Japanese are taking our jobs! The robots did it!' and then we went into the 20 most prosperous years humankind has ever known. I hear people cry left and right that today's job loss is systemic, but I hardly see any factual arguments to support that position. Jobs were cut over the last two years, this quarter profits are back up, and if those improved profits repeat themselves for a few quarters the confidence will come back and more people will be hired. A regular business cycle, even if the nature of the drivers is changing.
Now I'm not saying it doesn't suck for those without a job, and I'm sure some people have it really rough, but come on like Jacques says - today's poor (in the West) live lives 10 times better than the kings of 500 years ago. I'm sure that's no consolation for a welfare mom who has to put her children to bed some nights crying because they're hungry, but overall, these are still great times to live in. Let's keep some perspective, put problems in the right context and fix the comparatively small deficiencies rather than cry wolf, pack cans of beans and ammo and head for the mountains.
The weird thing is that it is more likely that mom and those kids suffer from chronic obesity, at least in the U.S. Doesn't change the fact, though, that the poor face much greater health risks than the affluent when it comes to nutrition. Just that the nature of those risks has changed, and take longer to manifest themselves.
The difference between then and now is that some of the people that were affluent then are feeling a little bit of the heat right now and they're scared shitless. But given a slight economic upturn they'll forget about all that and it's back to business as usual. Except for the people that had it bad in 2002, they'll continue to live in a way that a civilised country ought to be ashamed off.
There is no crisis, there is only a totally weird distribution of wealth that has temporarily gotten a bit weirder. If we really wanted then we could solve this problem, but all the majority wants is to return to the situation of 5 years ago.
"10 times better than the kings of 500 years ago." Yes, but both you and jacquesm are confusing technology advancement with an economic phenomenon, which is defined by high structural unemployment rate and many business failures
"pack cans of beans and ammo and head for the mountains." Nobody says you have to do that. 75% of the people that lived through the great depression lived a normal but frugal life. However, if/when the dollar suffers from hyperinflation, that's another story.
And you are telling me we are in a depression now?
http://www.google.com/search?q=tent%20cities
And the reason you don't see it every day? The criminalization of homelessness:
http://www.google.com/search?q=criminalization%20homelessnes...
The cushion is slightly greater because the lifestyles before this depression were higher than in the Great Depression (e.g. people have tents), there are more laws to protect lessees from landlords, and, of course, many people have credit.
But those are just cushioning. Cushioning slows the fall, it doesn't stop it.
It seems like about 25% of all children live in poverty - and the US' lines for poverty are lower than in many other countries:
http://www.google.com/search?q=US%20percentage%20of%20childr...
That being said, I don't think this reflects negatively on Tony. There are many other writers who I respect who show this annoying tendency (somebody has pointed out that Malcolm Gladwell and Thomas Friedman are especially prone to this).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfMbYllbN6c
(Skip to 2:40 for the actual start if you want.)
It is extremely unlikely that you will time the bottom of the market just right. So even if it will continue to get worse for a while, it might still be a good decision to continue buying into the market so that when the bottom does hit, you will have bought some stocks right around that time.
This all depends on your investment horizon, etc. etc.
If the last one, I'm inclined to think that someone who thinks about something full-time is statistically more likely to guess correctly about it than someone who doesn't.
I'm struggling to determine whether this fits the Liar's Paradox, or not.
If the system they're thinking about is a system defined by other people also thinking about it, and they're all trying to outsmart each other, and the system itself is too large and complex for any one mind to grasp, maybe not. And in fact, I've heard (no citation) that you'll as well on average throwing darts at stocks as hiring a stockbroker, and you'll save the fees. Which is why I'm inclined to invest in an index fund and forget about it.
"Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful"I won't lie, I've been funding my IRA early lately.
Mr. Foreman, who stared down financial collapse as an adult despite a troubled, impoverished childhood, said he knew real wealth when he saw it. “If you’re confident, you’re wealthy,” he says. “I’ve seen guys who work on a ship channel and they get to a certain point and they’re confident. You can look in their faces, they’re longshoremen, and they have this confidence about them...I’ve seen a lot of guys with millions and they don’t have any confidence,” he says. “So they’re not wealthy.”
The best part is that you don't need to leave some money on the table to hedge against inflation, since in the long term rent will pretty much keep pace with inflation.
There are areas where this is a completely terrible idea due to rent controls and other landlord-unfriendly policies, obviously you shouldn't do it there. Also, avoid any area where you're likely to get undesirables as tenants.
You can get a quality property with minimal leverage for your $2million. You will get a blue chip tenant like a national retailer or even a government department, and they'll sign a 10 year lease with mandated, upwards only, CPI-indexed increases each year. You won't even have to fork over 8-10% on a property manager because the tenant will maintain the property. And at the end of it, you'll have a property worth much, much more than what you paid for it.
Compare to a portfolio of houses, this strategy is higher return, lower risk and much lower management. The problem with family housing is that they are full of families, with all the associated problems that brings. Families split up, move out, get into trouble, have parties - blue chip businesses just keep their place tidy, make money and get on with life.
As usual, I think diversification if best for a stable portfolio. Mix various types of property, in various locations with various target markets, and then real estate is very sensible investment option.
Of course there are cyclical downturns, and also upturns. The idea is to get a low risk passive income, not to flip it and make money. Any blue chip property is going to stay blue chip regardless of market conditions, unless the location goes sour. But that's part of your due diligence.
Unless there was a property bubble. Ireland recently had a massive property crash. Properties that were sold for €200million are now worth €20mil or less. Lots of people are stuck owning empty hotels and business centres with no tenants.
For all the overvalued properties out there, there are still plenty which have maintained solid value based on solid cashflow from solid leases. As long as the lease is still going, then the value of the property is a function of the cashflow of the lease. The value of the lease is a function of the value of the tenant. If you do your due diligence all these mistakes can be avoided.
Unless you're a hands-on people person, I recommend running away from rentals as fast as possible.
You will have issues with tenants. You will invest heavily in maintenance, possibly due to your tenants. You will be hogtied by municipal and regional laws that heavily favour the rights of the tenant.
What you inevitably find is that if rent differs greatly from the amount of your mortgage (i.e this is profitable), all the good tenants have bought a house of their own. If it doesn't, you'll basically have a holding property that is gambling all your earnings on the property market. This isn't a very good strategy.
The average price of maintenance on a house is 1-3% of its value per year - this takes $20-60K per year off the top of your income. Be sure to take taxes off that as well as deadbeat tenants.
You could actually be in a negative situation, especially if you get a bad tenant that damages your property.
Nonetheless, I do think the is somewhat overrated. If I had fuck you money, I'd... write code, read books and papers. I'd have more freedom on how I write my code during working hours (and it's important not to understate importance of that, but the more senior you get, the more choice you have in what you work on what tools you use), but I'd also not have the focus that comes from working on systems that solve actual problems that individuals and organizations have; nor would I be solving these problems at scale that makes them much more interesting.
On the other hand, I'm pretty confident that if I were to spend my time chasing a big payoff I'd be working on problems that are far less interesting and more frustrating (which is almost axiomatically why these problems have the payoff). There's very few early-stage startups doing systems programming (and I'm speaking loosely here i.e., beyond just operating system kernels and file systems). For web companies systems programming only becomes needed as a scalability becomes a problem (in most cases it never does). The idea that may be I'll be able to go back to doing what I enjoy most of the time if the business succeeds won't be enough to drive me: I already do that (perhaps that's why so few "home run" startups have come out of Google?)
Keep in mind that while stock options after product/market fit (pre-IPO startups, public companies) account for only a tiny percentage, the chance of a payoff is much higher (which, again, is why it's a tiny percentage: you're no longer taking a risk). That payoff is certainly no fuck you money (except in rare cases e.g., Google in early 2000s), but it's often sufficient in terms of giving you more freedom e.g., to go back to school for a Ph.D.
Were I to have a vision for a business (rather than a science project, which most of my ideas have been) based upon interesting technology (i.e., not a website) I'd certainly consider pursuing it, but even then I'd have no illusions: I suspect, I'd spend more of my time doing what I don't like (general business operations) than what I do (coding); it would be the vision of bringing forth new technologies that solves real problems that would let me pull through that (as opposed to pure research or solving business problems with well known existing technologies) .
Amusingly, municipal bonds are in the top 4 likely candidates for our next set of major financial problems. The others are default on consumer ARM mortgages, debt on commercial real estate, and repayment on private equity. Interestingly, the largest class of investors in private equity funds this time around are government pension funds, which will just compound the risks for the munis. (The last time there was a bubble the investors were Savings and Loans institutions, the result was the S&L crisis of the late 80s/early 90s.)
There's several kind of muni bonds, however, each with their own set of trade offs. The higher yield, the higher the risk. Some are guarantees, but only offer a very low yield. If the guarantees lapse, the problems are likely to be very deep, irrespective.
For what it's worth, I'm sticking with FDIC insured bank CDs across two banks, but I my expectation is more of "retain value" rather than "investment".
So you have $2 million in F-you money? Stick $100K each into 20 different insurance company annuities (staying below the guaranteed amount and diversifying your risk) and enjoy guaranteed monthly (inflation adjusted) checks for the rest of your life.
The only thing that will stop your income stream is the complete destruction of the entire US financial system. I suppose that is possible, but if that happens your money won't be safe anywhere, except perhaps gold bars buried in your back yard...
sure but as long as you believe the economy is going to bounce back over 10 years then if you took a good piece of your $5m and simply put it into an index fund now, in ten years (retirement) time you'd have a very healthy return on it.
i don't agree that now is a bad time to invest. i believe now is a bad time to invest for returns over the shorter/medium term but if you're talking about investing over a retirement time scale then it's during periods like the one we are in where big returns can be made.
A friend of mine, a complete novice, was able to buy a multifamily unit in downtown San Jose for 500K and rent it out for 5000 a month. His down payment is 100K. His expenses(400K mortgage, insurance, taxes, etc) is 2500 a month. His rate of return is (5000-2500)x12/100K = 30% or so.
He did this while violating the #1 rule of real estate investing: you never buy at market price. You pay 70% of what stuff are going for on the MLS.
I invest in courthouse foreclosure auctions, and manage about 40% cash on cash returns.
Investing in real estate is a skill, just like building companies or coding. Imagine how much a typical person know about building web apps. That is how much a typical person know about real estate investment.
Arbitrage opportunities do exist in the current market due to the current craziness, but the present foreclosure pace can't last forever. I don't know how long "70% of MLS" has been "the #1 rule of real estate investing", but how easy was it to snap up properties for those prices in 2005?
The original poster was moaning about how hard it was in TODAY's environment to make money off of several million dollars in cash(!). I wanted to provide a counterpoint to that attitude.
Buying a rental property off the MLS means you have to manage it, and is like starting a small business. This is fairly safe to do even for beginners, and is a good way to leverage a few tens of thousands and a good credit rating.
Buying at courthouse auctions is a completely different ball game, and requires you to
1. pay all cash(this eliminates 99% of competitors)
2. research title and liens on the property(if you screw up you might end up buying the second mortgage instead of the first and lose everything)
3. estimate the market price without being inside
4. be there on weekday mornings
5. have strong intestinal fortitude.
6. have heard about them in the first place and have taken the trouble to learn the system.
The above are why you can get discounts of 30% or more off of market price.
Properties need to be individually researched, fixed up and resold. Someone has to physically go attend the auction. It's MUCH too messy for hedge funds. It's ideal for individuals, or groups of individuals, with cash and local knowledge. More and more people are showing up at my local auction, and good deals are getting harder to find.
Are you in California? Go to your local county courthouse at 10AM on a weekday and look for a circle of homeless looking people holding large cashier's checks. Depending on the state, it might be once a month on a designated weekend. Let me know if you want more info.
Stop reading HN and get back to work on chapter 35.
- What attributes constitute a good rental property?
- Is it ever worth it to hire a manager?
- How often do you have to visit the property? I live in SF but I understand being a landlord here is difficult due to renter protection. If I were to buy a property in an outlying area, how often would I need to visit it? I'd also like to take some extended travel in the future. Would being a landlord get in the way of that?
- What else should I be thinking about?
Thanks!
Rule of thumb #1 for rental properties is that if it can get 1% of its total value in rent per month in rent, you can get positive cash flow. 1.5% is worth your time. 2% is what you want to aim for.
Rule of thumb #2 is that the crappier the property, the easier it is to get a higher % of rent vs price. Multifamilies are in general more profitable to rent than single families.
Don't hire a manager when you're starting out. Do it yourself, invest close to home.
SF is too expensive, anyways. Everyone has their own comfort level trading off profit vs crappiness of neighborhood. I'm drawn towards slums, myself.
Richmond/Concord has some nice cheap properties, is close, and has good rents. Oakland is even cheaper but slummier.
The default first step would be to fire up realtor.com and craigslist, and compare prices versus rents. Start with the cheapest single and multi families in Richmond, Concord, and Oakland.
How much cash do you have? This is important since it defines your options.
Join bigger pockets, it's a great forum with lots of pros.
Always try to buy below the market price set by the MLS.
You can get away, but you'd need to get someone trustworthy on call to take care of emergencies.
Shoot me an email at foreclosurevision dot com, once I know exactly what you're looking for I can offer more targeted advice.
A different point of view is that his expenses are 12500 a month and FedGov is paying him a 10k/month interest subsidy, and that he is upside down by 150k and accounting for FedGov price supports as an asset. Tick. Tick. Tick.
In terms of growth, I think its wiser to invest in BRIC where the core domestic markets are getting stronger and the stock market returns are a lot better, though choppy. Also if you diversify into real estate (recurring income), CDs (monthly income), and such other opportunities, then you can strike a balance for yourself.
Influence is VERY tough though. I wouldn't count on it as an indefinite opportunity to earn money when needed, assuming you are able to cut through the noise and build credibility (which itself may be tougher than having a decent exit. Plus it is not for everyone). New influencers constantly displace current influencers and it would take a lot more work to maintain it unless you founded Google or something.
http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2008/12/22/permanent-portfolio-...
Any wealthy people out there using this who can comment?
Sure, but the consequences will be different.
Well I guess that with that reply you missed the whole point of the comment...
And if worse case scenario it doesn't...and you are broke at 55-60....go rob a bank. If you succeed you get some cash...if you fail you get free room, food and health care.
That philosophy might work if you're a single person.
That philosophy suddenly does not work so well if you have a spouse, children, and aging parents, perhaps sick or dependent families. Suddenly the whole "oh well, I can always just shoot myself" solution isn't so clean and practical.
Seems pretty obvious to me that the American economy as a whole has so much shenanigans going on that investing broadly in it is a bad idea. Is it really that hard to move your money to a foreign currency`
Sure, the US economy is in pretty bad shape right now. but where else do you suggest we invest? this isn't a localized problem.
The terrifying part is that what you say is true, but America is still the best place to invest. Burying pirate treasure on an uncharted island is actually starting to look good.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^BSESN&t=5y&l=on&...
Risk-free return rate is still at around 8%: http://www.bajajcapital.com/gss/nsc.html
Citation and qualification needed (e.g. Switzerland certainly isn't worse off than America).
The countries you listed (aside from Greece of course) are having some issues, which they are addressing. So what. From where I sit (live in Europe, have family and friends still in the US) the US looks much worse off.
It's easy to establish that Europe is in at least as bad a position as the US. Your point as to Switzerland's health points exactly to why many (including myself) think this means that it is actually worse overall: Because of the Euro, each of these problem countries can't control their own interest rate, and so the likelihood of actually defaulting is greater.
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/europes-e...
That what is actually worse overall? Europe or Switzerland? Switzerland isn't in the EU and doesn't have the Euro. It's true they've bought a lot Euros to try and keep the Franc down but they've bought a lot of US dollars as well (for the same reason).
The trouble is, you have to really fear the kleptocracies in charge, and even in the more sensible countries (like Chile, Costa Rica or my own, Uruguay) you have to be on your feet.
As usual, higher returns means higher risk (real or perceived - I suspect the risk difference between here in Uruguay and the US is more perceived than real).
By the way, if you want an investment that is mostly risk free, I'd look at finite commodities: steel, oil, uranium, copper, etc... (my uncle actually buys physical steel plate as a hedge - it can be used as input to his business but it's also a savings account).
You've got very little to be terrified of, other than your lack of self confidence in your ability to make the best of a mediocre situation.
Market returns are based on the amount investors need to take the inherent risks. Unless stock market investing gets considerably less risky (seems quite unlikely) investors will leave the market for less risky vehicles until rates return to the amounts needed to justify taking the risk, which have historically been around 7-10%.
Stocks, real estate, bonds, and all other market-based investment vehicles will always have returns in-line with risks in the long run.
Nobody should ever retire hoping to get a steady income from the stock market or real estate or other volatile investments. By the time you're ready to retire, you should be entirely in FDIC-insured CDs and the like. If your retirement plan is contingent on 6% annually you're asking for trouble, and you're probably going to get it if you live long enough.
It is important to buy companies based on their fundamentals.
If you are a web guy, you can create some software product(or pay someone to build one for you). Then charge $50 a month...and you only need to make 6 sales a day(via adwords) to make $100K/yr.
If you are not...you can buy a franchise...i.e. McDonalds franchises make something like 1-2 million a year. And you as an owner don't need to do anything...just hire a good manager...and it'll more or less run on autopilot(from your perspective)
And starting a lifestyle business with FU money, means that you can tough it out as it grows from 1 sale every other day, to 1-2-3-4-5-6 sales a day.
building a company is /much/ easier if you don't have to worry about where rent is coming from three months from now.
Plus you have to sign up for a 20 year term or face a steep termination fee (I heard it was in the arena of $100 Million).
I'm not sure it goes to your point I just thought it might give perspective on how even easy money isn't all that easy to get.
Actually, it won't.
Good managers are very expensive and they leave to make their own FU money. Okay managers require constant supervision.
This is probably true for many fast-food franchises but not McDonald's. Franchise owners a called "Owner/Operators" they are expected to work in their restaurants. McDonald's does not sell franchises to "Owner/Investors".
As an Owner/Operator you will go through "Hamburger University" in Oak Brook and learn how to make every product the restaurant sells. You will learn how to project sales, schedule employees and order product. You will learn how to manage labor and food cost, and how to manage your management team. You will spend some time working ordinary crew jobs and shift manager jobs at a restaurant.
Then, once you get your restaurant, you will have to be an active "chief executive" of the management team. You will have to recruit and hire trustworthy store managers... they are the ones who will be running your restaurant day to day and if they are not good at it you will not make any money or worse they will be stealing from you.
It is definitely NOT a passive investment.
my god, man, if you are capable of building a business that pays you a good salary without doing much any work, why not do so /before/ you get f-ck you money? I mean, at that point, you'd have a lot of time to pursue whatever startup ideas that might get you f-ck you money.
FYM in it's old-world sense (retirement) is probably getting more obsolete anyway. As Tim Ferriss put it, "The goal isn't to work less. It is to live more."
1. Low return on money. That's because money itself worth more now; the Fed has destroyed whole bunch money via credit tightening. We have gone through an asset deflation phrase and the money you have can buy more assets now. It's ok to have low return on money for now.
2. Asset allocation. Should not just put your FU money in stocks or Treasury. Read up on asset allocation. Have better downfall protection and better return.
3. 4% withdrawal rate. Studies and simulations have found that annual 4% withdrawal rate of a portfolio can make it last for very long time adjusted for inflation. 4% of 2M is 80K, which can provide a nice living.
4. Count net worth, not just cash. That 80K makes a big difference with a paid-for house.
5. Don't discount Social Security/Medicare/IRA/401K/Pension. The discussion of couple millions of PRESENT day often ignores the age restricted retirement funds. Those can be substantial.
I used to spend a lot of time playing Railroad Tycoon 2, and in that game a good way to get rich is
1. Put all your money in to a railroad you control.
2. Grow your railroad. As your railroad grows, the value of your stock in it grows. This causes your purchasing power to rise, allowing you to borrow money to buy more stock in your railroad.
3. Eventually you're in a ton of debt, but you've also got a ton of stock in your (presumably successful) railroad. Then raise the dividend paid by your railroad's shares and rake it in.
The problem with raising the dividend paid by your shares early on is that it will give your railroad less capital to expand with. So you only want to execute step 3 when your railroad is making more money than you know what to do with.
I think there's a good argument to be made that companies like Google know what to do with the money they're making.
There's a good argument that a company like Microsoft doesn't anymore, which is why they were pretty much forced to pay out a big dividend a few years back. Just to give an example at the opposite end of the corporate life cycle.
Just found this article suggesting it's still an issue:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-22/microsoft-may-use-c...
But yeah, I do think that would be the generally best bet with $5 million. I would most of it in a dividend paying ETF or mutual fund, like DVY or Vanguard Utilties. These funs will pay 4% in dividends, plus, the dividend payout will generally rise at nearly the same rate as income inflation. That's a much, much better deal than CD's which pay 2% a year with no inflation increase.
I would have to disagree, though, because fame and influence fades. You still have to work hard to maintain it.
how did we go from an age in which average people could hope to retire, to one in which someone with 5M needs to worry?
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-in...
Looks like about 2-4%. :-(
I've always thought that FYM and retirement money are two different concepts. If I had FYM, I can quit my job. I would still be looking for what's next, but I can take my time. (Usual disclaimers apply re: deadlines)
Mind you, I'm not guaranteeing they'll all go away, but it won't take very many bankruptcies for your returns to go below inflation. (Or worse.)
I might invest in specific municipalities, if that's possible for a mere mortal investor, but I wouldn't think it's necessarily a safer assert class than anything else right now.
If you can earn just 1% a year (in real terms) on that cash, you'll be fine. (At $100k annual expenses, you'll drop 1% per year. That'll still last a lifetime.)
But neither should you rely on influence and credibility, because those things still imply gatekeepers. You have to have influence and credibility... to convince somebody else.
Why not just rely on yourself? Why not foster the ability to make money in any circumstance?
I cashed out my IRA because, so far, the money I've put into my SaaS has paid back itself 1000%, not 10%.
Based on that, and my other efforts/products, I know I could easily earn 7K euros a month just by working a few days. Training is lucrative. My information products are lucrative. I'm about to open my "your first product" launch class again - last time it made $25k (as I was building it!), this time I aim to double that. Shouldn't be too hard.
Sometimes I sit back and think about it, and I can't help but laugh (in a nervous way), that I can earn more in a few weeks than one of my parents' yearly salaries from when I was a kid.
Now, back to my influence/credibilty/gatekeepers argument - the perceptive HNer will point out that I am using my credibility to bring in customers. That's true, at a few hundred bucks a pop -- which is a far cry from hoping somebody will hire you for a sweet job (which means, of course, that you have to work that job), and miles away from trying to use your credibility to get millions in investment.
My way is very do-able for a normal person, the other is incredibly hard and requires much luck in addition to a full-out effort.
Or will the environment rapidly devolve to: http://ferfal.blogspot.com/
Cheaper countries can be fun, but there's lots of downsides as well. If you are asocial, it could be your dream to live there. I'll always want a vacation there, but not to live there.
This level: I'm done.
The combination is a cheap city full of life. If you have the chance you should definitely go check it out.
Just out of curiosity, how cheap would you say it is? Any crime issues?
Yes, great place to live or visit, full of life, great people, but not cheap.
Maybe you want to look further east.
Curious to know what is cheaper in Berlin compared with Copenhagen, I am surprised there is much difference. Did not find much difference in Denmark when I passed through, and spent quite a bit of time in Stockholm, avoided light beers. Did not find much that was more expensive.
It's currently unlikely, but I suspect the U.S. could implement that much faster than you think if it keeps going downhill. It already implemented a ban on holding gold in the past, for example ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 in place until 1974 ). It's not the scenario I envision, but thinking "The U.S. would never do that!" is naive.
By the way, I believe the original post had a reasonable suggestion... you could live like a king for your lifetime in, say, Uruguay or Costa Rica with 5 million (and those are reasonably safe countries). Yes, emigrating is a quite hard decision, but it is a possibility.
You never want to be in a race to the bottom.
eg save the world from malaria, build that skyscraper with your face on it, start an iron and blood revolution (there are a few governments that I would want to overthrow).