I honestly couldn't follow most of the math but found this really interesting. I used to do UX analyses at a marketing agency and would constantly link clients to [1]. Page speed is huge, especially on desktop where its easier to navigate away. OP mentions this, but I imagine the effect is massive on a site where users are actively researching a topic and have tens of tabs open and so can easily switch to a similar website.
I do think this test could have been done without banner ads involved. Looking at page load speed per user and how that effects traffic would likely have the same results.
From my link below:
> A 1 second delay in page response can result in a 7% reduction in conversions.