Tesla Approaches Terminal Decline | Hacker News Reader

Tesla Approaches Terminal Decline

seekingalpha.com

45 pointsSA50021 comments

Jim Chanos, a famous short seller known for his Enron short (and who's also shorting Tesla), often refers to the book The Seven Signs of Ethical Collapse by Marianne Jennings [1] when talking about identifying financial frauds. Here's a brief summary of it [2]. It's eerie how many apply to Elon Musk and Tesla.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/dp/B008FPVKVA/

[2] https://www.scu.edu/ethics/focus-areas/business-ethics/resou...

Seeking Alpha has been predicting Tesla decline for a decade and had been shorting it's stock. It's a FUD article.

SA is a blogging platform. SA does not write these articles, independent contributors write them. Forbes and HuffPo have a similar system.

I'm sure there is legitimate criticism to be levelled at the article, and I would love to read it, so that I can get smarter. But you are merely poisoning the well, effectively preventing a discussion of the article on its merits.

Seeking Alpha is bearish on Tesla! News at 11.

> if one then assumes that Tesla will be able to miraculously achieve a 12% net margin per car (more than Audi does for its A4 series or BMW

Given that the "Add Enhanced Autopilot" and "Full self-driving capability" features are basically a $9k software update, I think the Model 3 is going to have some interesting margins once they scale up production.

Harsh truths here.

>... As long as 1) wealthy consumers in western nations but also China are eager to seek indulgence by way of green-washing and, 2) are in search of a Steve Jobs replacement persona onto which they can project their hopes for a gleaming future and, 3) are disillusioned with the establishment and its leaders, the company will likely succeed to raise cash again.

> The Tesla narrative is based on an illusion, a contradictio in adjecto - the promise that humankind can shop and consume itself into a sustainable future. However, even a million Teslas on the world’s roads will not impact the environment for better or worse. It is a systemic issue. ...Sustainability and promoting the purchase of raw-material consuming heavyweight products are mutually exclusive.

This proves too much. Even assuming for the moment that Tesla did fail, there's no reason other auto manufacturers won't keep producing electric cars and be successful at it. Any "lessons learned" would have to do with Telsa alone (with respect to their finances).

I don't want a Tesla because they're green. I want one because they're wicked fast, because they provide full torque from a dead stop. Because I hate the gas station. Because the interior is both luxurious and minimalist. I want one so much, and I could care less about the environmental impact. Long term, electric cars will fully replace the ICE because they're simpler, faster, and cheaper.

They aren’t that fast they have good acceleration but you’ll top out very quickly and your car will throttle down because your battery pack overheats.

The breaks, suspension and handling is also poor.

Want a fast car? A Maclaren 650 Spider can be bought for the same price or so a a new Tesla 100D its much faster and much more fun to drive.

The ludicrous mode in a Tesla is a gimmick nothing more nothing less.

And if you think that the Model S is luxurious then you need to step into a mid range BMW or a Benz, Tesla looks good but feels very cheap.

So far if you want luxury and a low impact then the plug-in hybrids form BMW are the way to go you get about 30 miles on battery which is more or less within the commute range of many people, a proper luxury as far as the finish goes and at less than half the price of the Model S.

I can buy a new BMW 330e today for less than £35,000 a Tesla would start at about double that.

>> 2) are in search of a Steve Jobs replacement persona onto which they can project their hopes for a gleaming future

Sometimes I wonder was Steve Jobs was a replacement persona for someone before him or was it like a new phenomena?

Probably, you can go all back to Edison and likely even to some cave in France for the launch even of the iSling..::

"And then, as long as 1) wealthy consumers in western nations but also China are eager to seek indulgence by way of green-washing and, 2) are in search of a Steve Jobs replacement persona onto which they can project their hopes for a gleaming future and, 3) are disillusioned with the establishment and its leaders, the company will likely succeed to raise cash again."

Securities news outlets that feed on your euphoria and insecurity:

- Investor Daily

- Seeking Alpha

- The Motley Fool

- Amigo Bulls

- Jim Cramer

- Zero Hedge [edit: adding this. I'm sure there are a bunch more]

They are SEO mills.

Why is this downvoted?

Seekingalpha is low quality trash that doesn’t belong on hn.

It’s pure stock market spam, and I’d hate to see that gain a foothold here

This article does not strike me as low quality. It is long, thorough and well argued. I'm sure there are reasons to be skeptical about its conclusions, and I would love to hear them.

As someone who rarely follows securities but is interested nonetheless, what outlets would you recommend if any?

Even people who are avid followers constantly get played. My advice if you rarely follow them is to let the news trickle in through reputable channels (WallStreet Journal, The LA Times etc.).

Learn about the industry, it's history, the major players, and then try to see how the company you're interested in fits into the picture. There are communities (subreddits) dedicated to those companies and although they are biased, you can also check out the competing company's communities. Try to judge for yourself if you think that the product or service that the company offers adds the market value that their market-cap claims it does. See if you can learn about the company's customers and how they're doing. Hows the economy as a whole doing? What about geo-political / climate situation - how large a role does it play?

Then, wait. Let things soak in a little. Keep asking questions.

Of course, most people will never do this. I myself am a victim, and let me tell you - I've lost a lot of money by not doing my own homework.

Ah, thanks!

Finance is one of those things I find interesting and would like to learn more about for "fun" and general knowledge purposes but (un?)fortunately, I'm not looking to invest. Maybe after a few years, who knows, haha.

I like Aswath Damodaran's blog, Musings on Markets: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.ca/

He's an academic who specializes in valuation and takes a very clear and thorough approach to all such questions.

Don't forget Zero Hedge

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