Android Sales Overtake iPhone in the U.S. | Hacker News Reader

Android Sales Overtake iPhone in the U.S.

gigaom.com

148 pointsyanw130 comments

I think part of the loyalty numbers for iPhone users is the substantial investment they make in other Apple hardware, software, and App Store apps. Unfortunately, I don't have any hard data to back this up, but I imagine a large percentage of iPhone users have at least one other piece of Apple hardware, such as a Mac, iPad, iPod Touch, etc., that works seamlessly alongside the iPhone and iTunes. That makes it tougher to break away from the iPhone. My coworker is one such example. He has an iPhone, a Macbook, and a Mac Mini. He loves the fact that iTunes ties them all together, and wouldn't get a different phone because of it.

Android doesn't have that kind of integration, simply because there isn't that tight integration. For example, my girlfriend and I both have Android phones, but everything else we have is Microsoft (2 laptops on XP and Vista, a media center PC and a Viliv S5 tablet on Windows 7, and an XBox 360). If Google could get all of those other devices dependent on Google software like Apple does with iTunes, they'd have a shot at keeping people loyal.

You'll also notice that Microsoft missed a big opportunity here. In addition to all of that Microsoft hardware, we used to both have Windows Mobile phones, but there was nothing to tie them all together like iTunes. I would have thought something like XBox Live Marketplace could have worked (e.g. as a central place to buy content for all my devices, share contacts and data, etc.), but Microsoft never executed. Maybe with Windows Phone 7 they will...

Google showcased a ton of this at Google I/O.

Android ties in really well to their webapps, Google TV (If that succeeds), etc.

I remember one example was that you can go to maps.google.com and click on a phone icon, and it just sends it straight to your phone which opens a map in the same place. That's really useful integration. I forget the rest of the examples, but they were all pretty 'wow'.

I think iTunes is an example of how not to do things. The iPhone is reliant on iTunes completely. With android, it stands on its own and can integrate with other things when you want it to.

I remember one example was that you can go to maps.google.com and click on a phone icon, and it just sends it straight to your phone which opens a map in the same place

That's in Android 2.2...which my phone (HTC Evo 4G) is supposed to be getting today!

It's an awesome update. Got mine a few weeks ago now. Wifi access point tethering is awesome.

You could have had it a few weeks ago, too, as Cyanogen released a stable-ish version for the Evo. (I have been using it since it was released. Getting rid of Sense was well worth the loss of the never-working 4G functionality.)

If you have Android 2.2/Froyo, you can download both the Chrome Extensions & Android app.

http://code.google.com/p/chrometophone/downloads/list

Thanks for the link! This is actually really freaking cool.

if you don't have 2.2, download an app called 'linkpush' sits in chrome and you click it, copies the url and then you can open the app on your phone to open it.

"The iPhone is reliant on iTunes completely."

Syncing of email, events, contacts, bookmarks, and files can all be done over the air, through MobileMe. Purchasing and downloading apps, music, podcasts and movies can also be done from the iPhone itself.

You only need to connect to iTunes for activation and software updates.

> He has an iPhone, a Macbook, and a Mac Mini. He loves the fact that iTunes ties them all together, and wouldn't get a different phone because of it.

I have a macbook, mac mini, iPad and formerly used an iPhone. iTunes was the worst part of that.

I simply never plug any of that stuff into my computer unless I really need to get photos or something off of it. That's a usability pain. It doesn't help that I have more music than can fit on my computer, so I also have to hook up an external drive whenever I use iTunes.

Every one of my Apple devices has high speed internet service any time I'm using them.

I carry a Nexus One now. My calendars, contact lists, etc... are always up to date. Things Android doesn't ship with are alway up-to-date, such as my instapaper offline reading list, twitter, RSS feeds, SMS and voicemail from google voice and other junk.

And speaking of integration, the fact that my browser is notified of my SMS and I can respond from there is just awesome. And when I do respond from my browser, the message is marked as read on my phone. Apple is just way behind here.

+1. I absolutely love my Nexus One (we have iPhones in our family) and I believe that N1 represents the "next generation" of mobile devices, if you will. iPhone is stuck in the past - it requires a computer to be fully operational: a few months ago we went overseas and I wanted to put more stuff on it to listen/watch on the plane, but the people we were staying with only had a Linux laptop - iPhone was as useful as brick.

Too bad N1 isn't available anymore: the overall experience/quality you get is incredible, plus absolute carrier independence, user experience and overall value: $60/mo for everything on T-Mobile without a contract, including tethering and cheap international calling via Google Voice, and yeah - proper utilization of Internet, without the need to sync with the most retarded piece of software ever known (iTunes). It even plays music to my stereo via Bluetooth: every time I walk into my apartment and experience the song transition from my headphones to my stereo I think "F&&& yeah, the future is here".

If the iPhone is stuck in the past, then Android devices are stuck in the future. It would be nice if I could transfer all my data from an Android device directly to my computer without having to send it to any third parties. iTunes may certainly be a bloated, unwieldy piece of software, but it offers some powerful functionality missing from the Android platform.

As for A2DP stereo over BlueTooth, the iOS platform now supports that as well, though there may still be some limitations that make it less practical than the Android equivalent (possibly a lack of standardized method for controlling the music playback via BlueTooth - not sure if that's been added yet).

In the best case we would have the choice to sync over the cloud or via a computer. Given the hard choice of cloud vs PC, I'll take PC syncing everytime - I don't like having to go through a 3rd party for privacy and reliability reasons, not to mention that my business travels often take me to places where the cloud isn't ubiquitous yet (for example I'll be working for 5 days on a project in northern NH were there is no cell coverage).

YMMV of course but the cloud model doesn't work for me right now and while I may be in the minority, I'm sure I'm not the only one.

> the future is here

And unfortunately, the masses seem to not care very much. That's the sad part. I have a similar experience with my N1, and I experienced it a lot when I went from G1 back to my iPhone for a bit. I was strangled by all the things I couldn't do anymore.

iPhone -> N1 I lost, um, PvZ and the Chase bank app that just came out. Basically, third party apps. Nothing from Apple.

+1 This more or less mirrors what I just said. The Nexus One is a tragedy not because the phone itself is bad; in fact it is quite the opposite - The Nexus One is a tragedy because it is the best smartphone on the market and Google/HTC/T-Mob didn't bother to tell anyone about it.

And also because its failure (from a sales perspective) will further entrench the dysfunctional model of subsidized phones that are deliberately crippled.

i agree. i love my nexus one too. it got me off blackberry which iPhone never could

Android and the N1 are a good combo. My problem with your statement is that other than activation the iPhone doesn't ever have to be plugged into a computer. Your example only shows that iPhone support on Linux is a not perfect, not that a computer is required. I download music and apps all the time directly to the phone, no computer required. My contacts, calendars and emails are all synced to the Google cloud that then syncs back to my mac.

iPhone support is better on Linux than on the Mac. At least the last time I checked plugging an iPod and iPhone into a friend's Mac or PC gave you the option to play the music on the device via iTunes on the computer or wiping it.

Android (and any other device that treats itself like a memory stick) will show up and let you drag'n'drop audio, video, photos in both directions etc. Obviously this drag'n'drop can also be automated by a suitable (1st or 3rd Party) iTunes-like client or a shell script etc.

I believe modern Linux support will at least let you access iP* files as if it were a drive, I think putting things on can be tricky because Apple locks it all down with encryption.

I have a macbook, mac mini, iPad and formerly used an iPhone. iTunes was the worst part of that.

I agree that iTunes is terrible, but for some reason, he loves it. I can't figure out why. But I think there are more people like him than there are like you or me.

The integration point for Google's stuff is the cloud, not physical devices. I expect this to gradually become a key differentiating factor. Apple is riding the coattails of an old paradigm, and, like Microsoft before them, they're too invested in the money they're making in the old paradigm to make the sacrifices necessary to properly address the new one.

While I generally agree with your statement, I think that you may be jumping the gun a tad in terms of the market. The "coattails of the old paradigm" are going to be very important so long as a good network connection isn't guaranteed at all times.

Amazing strides have been made to improve connectivity, but we're not there yet. So long as we're not there, you will continue to see the old paradigm.

Certainly timing is crucial in these things. Sun might have actually been a little too far ahead of its time in the 90's, for example.

Ultimately though we should be thinking of local storage as cache and not anything more privileged.

The integration point for Google's stuff is the cloud, not physical devices

That may be part of the problem with loyalty to Android. If everything is in the cloud, there is nothing tying me to a Google device. When I got my Android phone, I put in my Google account and got all of my contacts from Gmail and Google Voice, etc., but that is nothing new, as I had the same thing on Windows Mobile, and I could get the same thing on iPhone. When you get an iPhone, on the other hand, you have to create an iTunes account, and all the apps you buy, and all the backups for your phone happen there. It makes it easy to get another iPhone, or iPad, or iPod Touch, but it is harder to switch to Android or another platform.

"That may be part of the problem with loyalty to Android. If everything is in the cloud, there is nothing tying me to a Google device."

...Which is exactly why I'd like to get a Google device. And to the loyalty point: you don't HAVE to keep all of your users if you're getting more by the boatload. If the lack of lock-in draws more users than your competitor's lock-in keeps from leaving, hooray!

The whole concept of lock-in is misguided. If people are loyal because, even though they DON'T LIKE your product, it's too hard to switch, that means that a lot of your users are out there griping about you. Plus it can't feel good to know that you have to tie your customers down to keep them.

At some point, the dislike reaches a critical mass and people start leaving in droves. That's what's happening to BlackBerry now. And it's going to be hard to undo the harm to their reputation that years of frustrated users have done. Whereas if people could have left more easily, they would have seen the problem sooner.

Or to put this in HN terms: lack of lockin = "fail faster."

It's been pointed out before but it bears repeating: the stakes in this game are totally different for Google. Google doesn't need to dominate in this market, it just needs to keep it open enough that the client is commoditized. If clients are commoditized and communicate via open standards Google wins on the strength of its superior systems engineering. History suggests that Apple will fare poorly in a commoditized market.

I suspect Google is actually a lot more worried about Facebook right now than Apple though.

>they're too invested in the money they're making in the old paradigm to make the sacrifices necessary to properly address the new one.

Let's see what they do with MobileMe in the next couple of years before pronouncing them "dead from momentum".

I have an iMac, two macbooks, and an iPod touch. My phone of choice, however, is a Nexus One.

After eating the cost of an unsubsidized unit, I pay sixty dollars a month for 900 minutes and unlimited everything else. SIXTY DOLLARS!

If the iPhone experience is anything like the iPod touch experience - and I imagine it is - then I am more than happy with the N1. It does everything the iPhone does and it does most things better as far as I can tell.

This trend was pretty easy to spot. Almost 6 months ago:

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1129465

The problem is that developers are making a lot more money on iPhone apps. I've heard several developers complaining that their apps don't sell on Android. Will this eventually change?

I don't think it will change anytime soon.

1, The marketplace sucks compared to the app store in many ways. There are few ways to feature your apps on the marketplace vs apple which has the "what hot", "new and noteworthy", "top paid", "top grossing" categories. In comparison, the android marketplace doesn't.

2, On the apple app store, you are given more promotion room on your app page itself for more descriptive text and screenshots.

3, The android marketplace is FILLED with crap and spam apps, just go to the "whats new" section of your android marketplace and its filled with 95% crap-ware and those ringtone apps. There is no clear way for consumers to find good apps vs these garbage apps. This destroys the user's experience in the marketplace.

4, Related to above, the lack of regulation has fostered a system where comment spamming other apps's page and creating apps that does shady things with user's data is actually more profitable than creating quality apps. see here: http://tinyurl.com/2f3r4g9

5, There is a culture of "free" and "opensource" in the entire Android ecosystem and most apps are released for free or are ad-supported. Google seem to love this since if you use their ad system, they get a cut and therefore they don't seem to have an incentive to push paid apps to have wider availability.

On the other hand, I'm looking forward to what Meego and Win7MO will bring for us developers. I hope they will follow Apple's model of having tighter control over their app stores rather than the mess that the Android marketplace is.

One thing that may address your first two points is that Google demoed at I/O a web presence for the Android Market that would work in conjunction with the push service on the phone. Buy an app on the web and it's pushed to the phone.

I imagine that if done right this would allow them to match Apple in terms of providing more real estate for promotional content from app developers, and reduce the barrier to buying since you can preview an app, hit "buy," and immediately have it on the phone.

I also think the lack of a good web presence for Android Market is holding back device adoption. I know of several people who are dissatisfied with their iPhones but are hesitant to jump to Android without being able to see if there are third-party apps out there that are analogous to what they've already got on their iPhones.

I agree that one of the major problems with the Android Market at present is certainly this culture of "I won't pay for an app -- and if I have to pay, I'll copy it to my SD card and delete it within the 24 hour return window." A developer has little incentive to make a really, really good paid app if a good proportion of their users would pirate it. There's a tipping point where you can instead make more money by making a mediocre ad-supported app.

> I'll copy it to my SD card and delete it within the 24 hour return window.

That should be fixed with the new Android licensing server that Google recently announced.

http://android-developers.blogspot.com/2010/07/licensing-ser...

Edit: Well, fixed when developers update their apps (which they have a big incentive to do).

I think this is a good thing so long as developers are also generous enough with the grace periods that legitimate users aren't affected.

If you travel to a foreign country for a week and don't have international data roaming turned on, will you need to find a coffee shop and connect to wifi sometime in the middle of your trip to re-authorize your apps?

The nice thing is that it does leave these decisions in the developer's hands. If it's a network-centric app that accesses a web service that costs the developer money to operate (and thus piracy results in monetary loss), there's no reason not to have the license be strictly checked every time the app is opened. If it's just a game, maybe not so much, because someone probably will want to play it on an airplane.

I haven't seen any evidence that piracy on Android is worse than on iOS. My paid app has a 5-10% return rate; even if that's all piracy, it's not worth worrying about.

The problem with piracy on android is how EASY it is to pull it off. On the iPhone, you have to jailbreak your phone, a step which many consumers are weary of doing in fear of bricking their phone, after this, they also have to find a cracked .ipa to download/install. On android, you simply need to buy an app, copy to SD, return it and viola! free app. Based on stats of my paid android app, there are about 3x as many pirated users as users who actually paid for it =(

The new iOS 4 jailbreak doesn't require any of that. You don't even need a computer; everything happens in userland on the device.

Curious to see if this affects jailbreaking numbers.

It's ironic that what developers hate about iPhone is precisely what makes it ideal for developers who want to make money. This being the walled garden, the inability to easily install free third party programs, and also the fact that there is a financial barrier to entry (a Mac, plus a dev fee) means that other developers are reluctant to make their apps free in the first place - meaning you don't have to compete with people giving their apps away!

It's a brilliant, (albeit arguably evil), strategy by Apple to create a viscous circle where developers bind themselves to iPhone, which means the good apps wind up there and thus users buy the product and pay for superior apps, which makes it more lucrative to develop for, and so on. And they sell some extra Macs and make money on dev fees, and take a cut out of every app store sale. It's really a simply ingenious grand strategy which has worked unbelievably well for them, however unethical or limiting some people might think it is.

> It's a brilliant, (albeit arguably evil), strategy by Apple to create a viscous circle where developers bind themselves to iPhone, which means the good apps wind up there and thus users buy the product

The only problem with your theory is the 'Android Sales Overtake iPhone in the U.S' part. Perhaps Android will need a bigger market share (double?) to really start stealing the higher quality developers from iOS but if the trend continues this will happen.

Not really. Firstly, if you're going to count all Android device sales against the iPhone, you're going to also have to count all iOS devices, such as the iPod Touch and the iPad. At this point, iOS is still well ahead of Android in the US.

Secondly, the US is not the whole world. Here in France I don't know anyone other than tech geeks that have Android phones, but a majority of my friends have iPhones or Blackberries.

Thirdly, you have to take into account the fact that Apple has created a culture of users paying for content. They have also made paying for content as painless as is humanly imaginable - select item, enter password, and it downloads straight to your phone. Android devs have a long wait ahead before they start to see the returns that iOS devs are seeing.

by Apple to create a viscous circle where developers bind themselves to iPhone

I think you mean a vicious cycle. Or a virtuous one depending on how you perceive Apple.

Yes, indicative of positive mutual feedback, not a round area of slow and sticky fluid flow:) Thanks.

Evil circle of ...

Please stop. This is what every single company on the planet does. Few things are inter compatible and you'd be naive to hope that they would. Apple has solutions (implementations) to a problem which are different to everyone else's.

I created this poll here http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1571592 to find out are iPhone users really more inclined to buy over Android users?

Appreciate u taking the poll.

>5, There is a culture of "free" and "opensource" in the entire Android ecosystem and most apps are released for free or are ad-supported. Google seem to love this since if you use their ad system, they get a cut and therefore they don't seem to have an incentive to push paid apps to have wider availability.

This isn't entirely consumer-driven, IMO. I have no problem supporting developers, and I've bought the "donation" version of a number of apps to support developers, but the fact is that often as not when I look for an app to do something, the free app is the best choice available.

There are times I find myself wishing there were more quality apps I need out there that the developer would take money for, just to help end this notion that Android users don't want to pay for software.

>I hope they will follow Apple's model of having tighter control over their app stores rather than the mess that the Android marketplace is.

It is really interesting that you hope for tight control, while I am waiting for a platform with as little carrier and/or platform vendor control as possible.

In the ideal world, I want everything to be "open" and "free" too. However, there are simply too many spammers/unethical people out there who abuse such a system. Therefore I rather have a high quality app store over one that is filled with spam apps but is "open".

I'm not referring to "free as in beer", but for freedom of choice. I want to be able to install & use apps (for which I paid) without carrier or platform vendor meddling. I don't want to root the phone, don't want to unlock the sim, don't want to be able to use only those apps that are approved by unseen/unknown authority. "Spam" apps as you call them are not a problem, as they are not in "pc land" unless you install everything you come across.

6. Availability of Google Checkout (unless there are other ways to pay for the app already).

Marketplace does have a "Top Paid" and "Top Free" section for each genre similar to the App Store.

Most of the apps in App Store are crapware too

Apple gets a revenue from iAds as well. Notice that most of the Apps in App Store that are free are ad supported?

(I don't say this as a troll baiter, I own an iPad and an Android phone and love both equally)

Android Market does have "Top paid", "Top free", and "Just in" for the overall market and each app subcategory.

1. I really don't think this is the job of a marketplace with tens of thousands of entrants. In the Android world there has been a heavy push for QR codes to apps, so I seldom ever browse the market, and instead read reviews and blog entries on apps, following the QR codes to those that sound interesting. I'm not sure why developers think that someone else should do the promotion for them, and all classic promotion vehicles are still necessary.

3. So is the Apple market. There are 300+ fart apps (probably much more by now). It is absolutely true that the Android market is full of junk, but don't say that as if it's the exception. 99% of iPhone apps are make money fast garbage.

4. Spam is definitely a problem, and it should embarrass Google that they haven't dealt with that. On the "shady things with data", sorry but your iPhone is far more susceptible to this.

5. Bullshit. On the iPhone there was a novelty aspect that is quickly fading away. I remember having peers gushing every day about all of the apps they purchased. That has faded away and now they use a very small cross-section of top tier apps.

"On the other hand, I'm looking forward to what Meego and Win7MO will bring for us developers"

Indeed.

"I hope they will follow Apple's model of having tighter control"

This is such a bullshit myth. Apple's "control" is superficial and facile. That you promote it shows that you're a bit gullible I suspect.

I think there are two demographics. iPhone users already are used to buying music and have an iTunes account. It's a natural progession to buy apps. Android many probably hate iTunes and used p2p;

Other issues are...

- Google Checkout - Apps not being sold internationally - As noted above a messy marketplace; yet Google's focus is the web not apps.

Don't forget that the iOS platform is more than just the iPhone. Of the 100 million iOS devices sold, 40 million were iPod touches and 3 million were iPads. So an app made for iOS can really travel.

Also, sales of iPhones do not factor in sales of iPads and iPod Touches, which both run iOS and run Apps. DaringFireball.net tried some back of the envelope math a few days back and his claim is that "Android isn't there yet, but its catching up."

Daringfireball was quoting WIRED's Fred Vogelstein:

"The true comparison is between Android and iOS, Apple’s mobile operating system. Android’s activation numbers are not device dependent. Apple’s shouldn’t be either. If we are going to truly compare the two mobile OSs we need to include sales of iPads and iPod Touches. Add them into the mix and the data shows that Android is catching up but still isn’t close."

http://daringfireball.net/linked/2010/07/30/vogelstein

Is he also adding non-phone android deployment?

Are there a lot of non-phone Android devices out there? Do they sell well? If it's less than 40 million units, it doesn't change the result.

Of any single device? I'm not sure, all combined maybe. The B&N nook alone is probably the most common one but probably only a half million units sold. So even all combined probably not.

The nook has such little power that to call it "Android Powered" is a gross misuse of the term. Yes, you can downgrade the firmware, root the device, and upgrade it, but the web browser is still god-awful and I didn't see any good third party apps.

For an e-book reader, with the option of playing Chess and MP3s, its top-notch. But right now, the ability to run apps on it is more theoretical than practical.

As an iPhone developer (who occasionally gets requests for Android ports), my assessment is that the Android-revenue issue isn't going to change much in the short-term.

As for the total Android vs. iPhone sales numbers, I think two factors will play a significant role next year (a) if the iPhone is available on Verizon, T-Mobile etc. they'll be able to overtake Android sales again (b) I realize that Microsoft is unpopular on HN, but imo Windows Phone 7 will take away more sales from Android than from the iPhone.

It seems like Windows Phone 7 should take away market share from Android, but there's one key problem that I think will prevent Windows Phone 7 from doing that: Internet Explorer.

IE is a resource hog, and has horrible standards support. Most mobile sites won't work with it unless Microsoft manages to get IE9 ready for production use with Windows Phone 7. From all the stories I've seen, they seem to think they can restrict users to using IE7 and still have a good mobile experience. The mobile web is Webkit, and I don't see IE standing a chance.

FWIW, I went from making $20 a month on Android apps to $100 a month in the past two months or so.

I wonder if developers that actually sell mass amounts of apps are noticing this too?

For how many apps, if I may ask?

It's just one app, it's a third party Instapaper client (there's no official Instapaper app for Android [yet])

http://www.appbrain.com/app/com.tonycosentini.hardcopypro

You just got yourself another sale...

Oh wow, thanks. It's definitely not as good as the Instapaper iPhone app, but I've been tweaking it over time and it's slowly getting better and better :-).

That's pretty good for such a specialized application, if you ask me. I'm looking to make decent passive income between BlackBerry, Android and iPhone app sales over the next few months, so a few applications with $100 monthly sales would be perfect for what I'm looking for.

> The problem is that developers are making a lot more money on iPhone apps.

Is this necessarily a problem? Maybe there will end up being enough good free apps that the Android ecosystem will do fine without needing people to "make a lot more money" selling apps.

I happily used Linux on my desktop for years even though there wasn't much of an ecosystem of paid software.

It's not a problem for Android, but it might be a problem for people writing apps for Android. Given that a goodly number of people want Andoroid to 'succeed' against iOS because of the greater freedom for developers, it seems like this would be a significant dampener in many folks enthusiasm.

it's not just the developers. i have heard from iphone owners that they can't move to android because of all the money they've spent on the apps.

and i thought itunes was a lock-in.

Yes, for me undoubtedly, and for more than a few reasons, I am not a fanboy, but I see the Android platform as having great 'game changing' potential.

They are going to sell a whole heap of these things!

The latest Android handsets do deliver the stability required for a mainstream device.

HTC, Acer, Asus, Dell and Motorola are large manufacturers and they all have a presence on the Android platform.

China and other strong manufacturing countries can finally focus on delivering refined hardware platforms without needing to invest in software to break a Western market.

The ease of access to the SDK and the cheap platforms available for developing applications means that in emerging and developing economies there are a mass of people who want to learn to develop for Android, they will do a lot of the localization tasks for Google for free!

I am not going to dispute that there is a bias towards low cost and free applications on the Android, no doubt as the raft of sub $100 devices arrive, they are going to be bought by people on lower incomes than the average Apple user. The iUniverse is a great place to be, Apple's integrated media platform is definitely an achievement, but to join the party you really need some $$$

It's a numbers game in the end, the growth curve of Android seems to suggest it will dominate the smartphone market in 2011 and beyond, with that will come the revenue potential application developers seek.

>The problem is that developers are making a lot more money on iPhone apps. I've heard several developers complaining that their apps don't sell on Android. Will this eventually change?

The monetary rewards for trivial apps on the iPhone have been very atypical for the industry in general, so if anything I expect the lucrative iPhone model to dissolve: The social value of having a lot of the latest apps is disappearing.

I do expect apps to remain lucrative, but not with the consumer paying for it. Instead the apps will be financed by brands and interests.

This is pre iPhone 4 information, it doesn't take into account the biggest phone launch in history.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/08/02/nielson_androi...

Not to discount the size of the launch, but it's estimated that 77% of iPhone 4 purchases were upgrades from earlier-generation iPhones. Still an impressive launch, but Apple didn't grow their marketshare by 3 million handsets.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/25/77-of-iphone-4-sales-...

Getting 700,000 users in one weekend is nothing to be ashamed of. And quite likely enough to pull the gap much closer, or reverse it to put the iPhone back at top.

And those iPhone 3G(S) that were being replaced were simply thrown in the bin? Or were they passed on to the second hand market?

My fiancee's 3GS was passed to me, and my iPhone 1 was thrown in the bin.

For sure iPhone 2Gs are being thrown out at this point. But are Android phones' stale dates any better? They much much worse.

This is only interesting if you look at it the right way.

The way I see it is that there are many manufacturers of Android phones, while every iPhone is manufactured by Apple.

Also, every phone that runs iOS has specifications much more the same than that of every phone which runs Android. Apple's approach makes it easier for developers to get their app running consistently on as many devices as possible.

http://gigaom.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/smartphone-switch.... is interesting, though. If the data is to be believed, 20% of Android users will buy a phone from Apple next time they make a purchase and 90% of iPhone users will buy another iPhone.

Those numbers for future purchases are pretty interesting, particularly if you consider where they lead. If those numbers hold relatively steady, then it suggests that Blackberry is doomed to drop below 10% of the installed base, and that Android won't ever be able keep hold of an installed base even one third the size of the iPhone's.

In reality, a platform declining as steeply as Blackberry will probably accelerate it's decline until their only remaining customers are those who are locked-in, unless they can make their phones much more enticing before they've lost too many customers.

Interesting stats, indeed. These are Nielsen's, but Yankee Group reported on the same thing a week ago -- the results are nearly identical.

"Subscriber migration to iPhone is a one-way trip" http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/07/27/not-great-news-for-go...

Look-- even if you're a rabid iPhone fanboy, you should want Android to be super successful. The more successful it is, the harder Apple will work to make their product even better. Likewise Android fanboys should want iPhone to be successful---- competition will keep these guys on their toes.

I say this looking at the blatantly Apple bias that floats on this site. Why put down the other system? I prefer Android but think they're both great phones. (I had a 3GS for awhile)

"I say this looking at the blatantly Apple bias that floats on this site."

Interesting, given the upvoting behavior on HN suggests that there's a strong Android preference. Maybe that can be explained by the fact that there are currently more opportunities for developers on the iOS, but a typical HN users might favor the perceived freedom an Android handset or jailbreaked iPhone offers.

Well said. I've been telling everyone that we are in a good position with all the competition. If Android or iOS or Win7 cease to exist as some seem to clamor, it will hurt all of us.

Competition is good not greed.

Considering how much at&t seems to suck, this is hardly surprising. And indeed Android seems to be a very US-centric thing so far.

Take France for instance, where all careers are selling the iPhone :

* iPhone : 2.25 million units currently in service

* Android : 220,000 units currently in service

That's a 10 to 1 ratio ! (as of April 2010, so pre iPhone 4 launch)

http://www.geeketchic.fr/geek-blog/admob-android-vs-iphone-o...

Conclusion : study carefully your target market before deciding on which platform to launch an app.

You seem to be suggesting that the choice of AT&T was a bad one. How quickly we forget that AT&T was the only carrier that would allow Apple to develop the phone almost completely without influence. Verizon was choice #1, but they refused to allow Apple to have the control it wanted, then issued some kind of silly statement along the lines of "We felt that the user experience was beyond our control with the kinds of demands Apple was asking for". Which is true, but something Verizon just couldn't bear the thought of.

>as of April 2010, so pre iPhone 4 launch

That's pre-almost every Android handset worth owning overseas, around the time that the Desire was starting to make an appearance.

The iPhone 4 was a big launch. Yet in that same time period a lot of very, very credible Android handsets have launched. The Samsung Galaxy S will be one of the most interesting of all.

I'm just glad android seems to have passed the threshold beyond which companies have to care about it. A good android app is becoming a necessary part of any consumer cloud-based service (kindle, nook, etc.) just as a good iphone app has been for a while.

If the movement between the user groups remain the same, then in 10 years time, it will have stabilized on around 6% blackberry, 70% iphones, and 24% android (ignoring everyone going to "other smartphone os")

(Finally I got to use Markov chains! Code here for anyone interested: http://codepad.org/cstzwXbG )

Unfortunately I must say that this method is flawed. The are two key implicit assumptions that break the whole thing. The lesser one first -

You are assuming that the sample you have taken is a good estimate of the true probabilities. You have assumed that the probabilities will remain the same. This latter assumption is the next problem.

you heard of the black swan concept? The future is predictable except for the unpredictable parts.

I say this because I too have been thinking about this and wondering what kind of model would be the least worst indicator since all predictors are poor the longer the timespan as a ratio of stability of system in study. I am thinking something inspired by the N body problem and swarm based optimization would be cool to look at. Alas, I have not the time to pursue this.

I wonder how much of a dent the iPod Touch would put into the numbers if it were counted.

On a related note, it seems an iPod Touch sized clone for Android would be a worthwhile device for a company to make (especially if it fit in all those iPod Touch running armbands). I hear news snippets here and there, but you'd think there would be a worthy competitor at this point... (there could well be one I'm not aware of, but a quick google didn't turn much up).

edit: Samsung YP-MB2 seems to be iPod Touch sized and "coming soon": http://androidcommunity.com/samsung-yp-mb2-poses-for-photo-2...

I'm totally ignorant of the Android landscape but does it have a music player than can rival the iPod app music + iTunes syncing of an iPod Touch?

I haven't used it myself, but I hear DoubleTwist is a great Android app for music, and the desktop app seems pretty good.

Also keep in mind that a lot of people loath iTunes (I think it's great on OSX, but I probably wouldn't want to use it in Windows).

Definitely don't think any of the Android music apps are up to the level of the iPhone's iPod app / iPod touch's music app. Apple's UI for that app is beautiful.

- a current android user

Am I the only one annoyed by the "iPod" App on my iPhone? They really should split that into multiple apps for podcasts, audiobooks, video, music etc. I suppose it just mirrors the confusion of iTunes on the desktop which, despite the name, does a bit of everything these days.

I would pay a good price for a decent iPod touch style android tablet. 7" seems to be the pattern which is too big really.

Archos' first Android tablet was 5". It could use Android 2, but the media-playing capabilities are solid.

Google was preventing devices without cellphones from accessing their market for apps. Thus one of their big plays to prevent the "fragmentation" boogeyman has, until now, handed a big market to Apple. They seem to be relaxing this for a push into tablets so this area could become interesting in the near future.

Of course it did, it simply had to. Now the question is whether the android ecosystem can keep its users as good as the apple one can.

I sure hope so, but it definitely isn't a given. Android is a big step in the right direction but there are still plenty of things that need fixing before they can compete with apple on anything else but units shipped.

When developers have to seriously think about which platform to support first you can say they've achieved parity. That may be quite a while though.

When developers have to seriously think about which platform to support first you can say they've achieved parity.

I agree we're not quite at that point, but we are getting close. We (justin.tv) are putting some serious resources into Android development right now - not as much as for iPhone, but still, I'd say we're now treating them as nearly equally important platforms.

That's because you're looking at android as a delivery medium, but not because you make money of your applications right ?

Yes that's a fair point - for now at least Android and iPhone are both strategically important to us, but not at all for the purposes of generating revenue.

Unfortunately, the Android Marketplace as well as the SDK still sucks for us developers. Buggy and inconsistent behavior across different devices; Bad performance (MotionEvent anyone?); The lack of paid apps in different countries and the prevalence of spammy crapware apps on the unregulated marketplace. I wonder if google will do anything to address these issues as Android gain a wider audience. Otherwise I can see this as a hindrance to the adoption of Android.

I agree. I would care so much more about this _iff_, as a software developer, I could capitalize on it. Looking at numbers from various posts and outlets, iPhone (or even iPad) app sales are orders of magnitude larger than equivalents on Android Market.

If I were a _device_ manufacturer, the "Free as in Everything" aspect of Android is definitely alluring, as it saves from Symbian or WinMo royalties. That's where it matters: to the Motorolas, HTCs, and (eventually) Nokias of the world.

For a hacker doing software, though, it just doesn't come close to the App Store as far as outlets for monetization.

Also this: http://www.netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-share....

It looks like Apple gains market share in web usage, and doubles Android in growth, according to the report. So, it looks like even though Android may overtake iPhone in sales, the users don't often use one of its primary features as a smartphone. Is it the browser experience or laggy hardware that stymies the growth?

this kind of sounds like a problem that could be solved by a good startup, no?

I don't understand why people compare sales volume of iPhone to Android. Isn't that kind of like comparing MacBook Pro sales to Windows sales? People should either compare iPhones to Droids, or iOS devices to Android devices.

The iPhone is the only mobile phone running iOS so the only way to do market share for mobile phone operating systems means just counting the iPhone. If you're doing laptop OS marketshare it makes sense to just count Apple's laptops even though the same OS runs on other devices.

Uhm. iPhone is the only phone running iOS, but there are other devices running it too, so if you count instalations of iOS you should consider iPod touch and iPad, if you count only iOS on iPhones then the remark is valid: it's comparing apples to oranges.

... Their are other devices running OS X too, but if we're talking OS market share for laptops those devices don't get counted. They are comparing Android phones vs. iOS phones. Perfectly legit. Apples to apples.

Well iPhone kind of implies iOS, doesn't it? So yes, technically speaking they should have said iOS instead. In any case, I think the comparison is fair, and more analogous to comparing Mac OS to Windows.

'IPhone' implies 'iOS', but half of all iOS devices are not iPhones. The iPhone is a smartphone model. It should be compared to other smartphone models, not other mobile OSes. But ofcourse, if iOS sales were compared to Android sales, there'd be no contest. I'm sure Android will overtake iOS at some point though; Android handsets are getting cheaper and cheaper, while Apple cares more about profit margin than unit sales.

The iPhone is a smartphone model. It should be compared to other smartphone models, not other mobile OSes.

Err, the iPhone is a smartphone "family". iPhone 4 would be an smartphone model.

I'm sure Android will overtake iOS at some point though; Android handsets are getting cheaper and cheaper, while Apple cares more about profit margin than unit sales.

I'm not convinced this is a meaningful comparison, either. As far as developers are concerned, the number of wealthy customers who are used to impulse-buying apps are a metric Apple will dominate for the foreseeable future. As far as profit and margins, Apple is well ahead of all other hardware manufacturers, as well. User experience... well, that's subjective, but I think generally agreed on, as well. Just as comparing BMW's and Ford+Honda sales isn't very helpful in predicting the success of the companies, nor the market for compliments, neither is this.

"the iPhone is a smartphone "family". iPhone 4 would be an smartphone model."

You are absolutely right. Perhaps it'd be better to compare the iPhone smartphone family to the Droid smartphone family then?

(EDIT: that is what @andreyf already suggested earlier)

It doesn't matter whether this is based on pre-iPhone4 data or not. Trend is quite clear and there's simple logic behind it.

Apple has quite narrow market segment. They are making more money with less customers which is exactly the right thing to do from company perspective. However Android is gaining new markets with new form factors, different pricing points etc. That's why it is inevitable.

If you want a smartphone and are already with Verizon, T-Mobile or Sprint, you're options are pretty much limited to Android. When the iPhone expands carriers, probably next year when AT&T and Verizon move to faster LTE networks, it will be a different story. Verizon currently has 91.2 million customers and AT&T has 87 million.

Will it? I'm not so sure. The few million left who don't have an iPhone aren't enoungh to slow androids snowballing (with increasing speed) growth. For consumers now, a full touchscreen smartphone is enough, they don't care what OS it has. The ones that do are AT&T customers already.

The real question now that android is the 'windows' of the mobile world is where will Win phone 7 fit in the landscape? Premium offering to compete with Apple? Or a consumer OS like desktop windows that will go against Android

When every Verizon store, kiosk, and multitude of resellers are able to finally show the iPhone next to an Android phone, Apple will take a big slice of Android's pie. Verizon has 90M subscribers and the cell phone buying cycle is only 1.5 years - Apple will sell millions to Verizon customers.

I suppose this isn't at all surprising based on the iPhone/At&t tie up.

It would be interesting to compare other countries where carriers haven't locked up the iPhone (e.g. UK or France).

No doubt android is an excellent platform, but the barriers to obtaining an iPhone seem relatively higher than android.

> No doubt android is an excellent platform, but the barriers to obtaining an iPhone seem relatively higher than android.

That's a feature of Android, not something that just happens because of factors outside the control of Apple or Google.

Actually, it is something outside of the control of Google. Admittedly, they made the right choices to allow the OS to spread (I was going to say easier, but really they allowed it to spread at all). This didn't mean, however, that anyone else was going to pick it up and use it.

Picking up Android is only a matter of how open and capable it is.

Developing your in-house mobile OS is not easy or cheap. Companies like HTC/Motorola can't compete with Apple/RIM/Nokia only on hardware quality.

Most phones are Java ME enabled for that reason, but it's a shitty platform and everybody knows it.

The big story in the UK over the last week has been phenomenal Android growth (up 350% in a single quarter). Obviously it's growing from a smaller base, and I don't know how close it is to catching either iPhone or iOS in installed base, but the trendlines look good for it.

I have Android phone just because it has keyboard, and I didn't want to move our family plan to AT&T (I'm with T-Mobile).

I still like the keyboard more, but I wish the phone was more like an iPhone.

OR: Apple selling close to 10% of all mobile phones in the US with just 2 models (iPhone 3GS and 4) without spending a penny on ads in a market they entered only three years ago...

http://www.dotcoma.it/2010/08/03/in-news-that-isnt.html

    Android = OS
    iPhone = Gadget

Shouldn't the headline read "Android Sales Overtake iOS in the U.S."?

No, because it didn't. The iPhone is only about half of iOS device sales. Besides, there are no Android devices that compete with the iPod touch and the iPad.

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