How to Survive a Robot Apocalypse: Just Close the Door
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Of course if we really get to a point where robot uprising / apocalypse is a credible imminent threat, I'm sure most of the threatening robots will have solved this particular obstacle by then...
Even if someone programs robots specifically to take over the world autonomously, they would need to either encode all the assumptions or else train them perfectly for all situations.
Also they'd have to be able to adapt to all the environments humans can... you make robots adapted to urban warefar environments, great we go to the mountains and develop something to target that design and counterattack.
Obviously if AGI comes about, we could be in trouble, but I don't believe that's around the corner and have doubts about it's feasibility on any timeline.
I would go on, but now I'm cut short by life... would love to hear counterpoints.
What materials are we talking about?
Humans brains replace themselves and the resources it takes to grow a new human (complete with a new brain) are much lower and easier to acquire than any artificial brain we may come up with. It takes awhile to get little humans up to speed, but they'll adapt to any environment you throw at them and in a time of strife will be able to make themselves useful way sooner than they do today.
Any time you start saying words like "indefinitely" you're falling into a trap. We may have "infinite" silicon available on the earth, but it's not equally accessible and it can't all be extracted and refined in the same way.
Encoding just one assumption will cover a large fraction of situations: anyone that the robot cannot positively identify as being (1) the Evil Overlord, or (2) an employee in good standing of the Evil Overlord, or (3) someone the Evil Overlord has granted an exception for, or (4) someone in a place that the Evil Overlord has granted an exception for may be terminated.
We've got almost 8 billion people in the world now. Most things an Evil Overlord would want to do once in charge, especially an Evil Overlord with good robot technology, don't need anywhere near that many people, so losing 6 or 7 billion in exchange for keeping the robots simple and reliable during the takeover would probably be acceptable to the Overlord.
If the Overlord does have plans that require more people, that can be taken care of after the takeover. Presumably an Evil Overlord would not have any qualms about a forced breeding program to shore up the population.
A lot of problems that we consider to be hard become a lot easier when you are an Evil Overlord.
Do they kill everything living, or will they know how to distinguish humans from other living beings reliably?
If even one Evil Overlord robot is captured and studied, how much can be gleaned which will allow them to be exploited? If the Evil Overlord deploys these robots and leaves even one exploit open then the entire swarm is compromised and Evil Overlord is overthrown.
I can see it working if this is a sneak attack and they take a large percentage in a short amount of time, but that would require a lot of build up of technology by this Evil Overlord without being exposed... not impossible, but still implausible in my book.
Weaponized flying drones are sufficient for a large number of environments. Even if they limit themselves to wide open spaces on sunny days, with crude sensors that just detect vaguely human shapes that move, they would have a significant impact. A perfect annihilation isn't necessary to crumble society.
The tech is already sufficiently advanced, albeit in several disparate pieces. The will to deploy it and capacity to build it at massive scale is really all that is lacking.
"Good enough" works for UI and database performance, or problems that aren't actively adapting to prevent the solution from being applied.
Nobody in security would apply "good enough" to well-known and high value attack vectors, you need to be constantly adapting and understanding your enemies next move. And in cybersecurity, you really have a limited surface area for attack.
Drones and robots need to apply their solution (getting rid of us) in the real physical world, not the digital one and each one of us is a supercomputer which can adapt to working with other supercomputers very quickly in the face of adversity.
I think they might make a good first push and catch us off guard, but some humans on defense will understand the systems that control the drones and how they collect/process the information. They do not have the same advantage with us.
Designing new camouflage to avoid detection, creating decoys which waste their ammunition/resources or spread their forces too thinly, and various other classic strategies that come naturally to any group of humans with a single strategist amongst them will be well outside of a simple "good enough" drone's ability to adapt and combat.
Anything but a perfect annihilation will only give us time to find exploits and counterattack. The only thing that should be a threat is an AI that has a similar capability to understand the physical universe and adapt faster than us. You might make a robot that understand a whole bunch of stuff about physics and biology and math... but if they don't understand chemistry and the many ways we can deploy it as a weapon against them (think acids and other corrosives), then they're going to be at a complete loss as to how to neutralize that threat.
Say some one builds a fleet of 50,000 autonomous drones that fleet goes Skynet and kills a bunch of people but some one would have to maintain, rearm and refuel that fleet.
Even if for some reason the fleet would come with some autonomous logistical capacity it will eventually run out of fuel or munitions.
For a robot uprising to work they would have to have the same agency as the human civilization that built them and that is highly unlikely to ever happen.
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Interestingly, US ADA (disability act) requires commercial buildings to use handle-style doorknobs. The robot uprising would have a lot easier time getting through those.
They're evolving a thousand times faster than us.
There are plenty of robots that already exceed humans at their specific tasks my dishwasher is much better than me so is my washing machine.
I think the answer they'll settle on is selective pain -- pain receptors that can be switched off.
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