Rise of the telepresence robots
edition.cnn.com
edition.cnn.com
In case you're interested in seeing what people said in the past, and the predictions made then, here are some of the HN items about them:
http://searchyc.com/submissions/anybot?sort=by_date
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=538848 <- 2 comments
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=552929 <- 10 comments
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=575394 <- 2 comments
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=629143 <- 2 comments
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=745831 <- 14 comments
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1076157 <- 10 comments
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1357787
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1357896 <- 40 comments
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1388509
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1499582 <- 45 comments
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1506155 <- 3 comments
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1554166
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1554420
We've been through this before with cellphones. For example, people used to assume that if they could get you on the phone that you were in the same town because they would dial a local number. "Can you come over?" "No, I can't; I'm in Texas."
Average TeleHoliday Duration: 4 Minutes.
Seriously, how long would you have to drive your 35 pound 15,000 dollar bill around the streets of Rome before somebody made off with it? The guy on the street corner who unlocks phones could surely unlock one of these, and presto, free robot.
I don't think a sane person who values his property would ever drive one of these things out into public unsupervised.
It's one of those fields where SF meets reality in the most concrete way, and I don't think it will be long before each and everyone of us will have been interacting with one of these or will have been in the drivers seat in one form or another.
The biggest stumbling blocks to wide acceptance will be legal ones.
edit: Let's hope the dentists that serve the people building this tech are not reading HN, the negotiations could be fairly painful.
So what would I need to go to a teleoperated dentist.
-Reliable direct satellite link?
-Own power supply in the clinic in case of black outs.
-Similarly reliable supplies in the operators place, or sufficient numbers of people that could take over the operation if the something went wrong with them.
Also any surgeons/dentists in the house? How important is reaction time. Would latency be an issue?
But you don't even need offshore personel: imagine the "doctor-ATM". Now you can see a doctor 24-7 from a booth on the nearest gas station. The doc just happens to be in the big medical center two hours away.
Frankly, we do not know what they could be used for. Personally, I would not mind being able when I have some free time to have this robot wondering around the pyramids of Egypt for me or Shanghai see how ordinary people live, or preview for example some place I want to go to etc.
You say people using this to go on remote vacations is sad. I say it's awesome for all the travel phobia's, handicapped, poor, etc. New things are additive, not subtractive. Nothing in this is stopping people from taking taking physical vacations (other than guilt over the amount of pollution air travel causes) it's enabling people to do something they couldn't before.
Of course if the robot could also be used by a plumber(auto sanitizing feature ;p) car mechanic... I don't have to go out of my house. Which is a scary idea ;p
Aside from security and privacy issues (pull the plug?) I think that's not such a bad idea.
I'd say the user interface needs some work, but the hardware is great and it was really fun to see people's reactions around the office! (the mustache was my idea)
"Cheating Husbands and Wives (CHAW) lobbies for ban of Anybots. Claim sanctity of their marriages at stake."
However, there's much less information going to the people who are with the robot: there's no body language, no facial expressions. How do you even know who the robot is?
Personally, I would not feel comfortable having a discussion with such a robot because of this. It's like an extreme version of talking to people who wear sunglasses inside. At least with video chat you can see people's faces.
"People could use them to go on remote vacations, he said, touring the streets of a faraway country or interacting with the locals without ever leaving their bedrooms."
This seems to be a serious suggestion. Um, so the vision of the future from Wall*E is something to aspire to? No reason to ever leave your bedroom again, for anything? Not even vacation? That's the value proposition?
Except, all the people there are in their bedrooms controlling their robots, so your robot is just interacting with the other robots there. Except, the people living there are probably controlling a robot near where you live, anyway, so your robot is probably just hanging out with other robot tourists.
For remote work arrangements, the thing that is lacking is the massive amount of information conveyed through body language. 100% of the body language of the person controlling the robot is still not conveyed. So what problem is this actually solving?
I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the idea that what we really need is one less reason to get up off our asses and move our bodies.
What I'm thinking about this is what will it look like 50 or 100 years on, if it catches up. People becoming physically and mentally unwell from staying still is mostly a mechanical problem beyond the lack of changing stimuli and surroundings, and the telepresence rig would provide those.
The low bandwidth thing can get gradually better. The ultimate solution would be some kind of direct neural interface which would give pretty much the same sensory bandwidth as you get from your biological senses, but that would require an entirely new and really difficult to develop technology stack. What we can do now is develop VR and augmented reality technologies. At the operator end, a VR headset or some kind of CAVE environment to give 360° view of the bot's surroundings. At bot end, you could use augmented reality to project an image of the human operator captured from multiple directions as a 3D avatar that shows the operator's body language to people wearing headsets around the bot.
I'm not seeing intrinsic value in people moving around in person, though of course lots of instrumental value which would need to be patched in with technology. There is, on the other hand, value in many people not moving long distances much, in the massive amounts of transportation fuel it would save.
Also, there are a lot of elderly, infirm, or handicapped people in the world who can't physically travel.
Think outside the box, of cases where the presense of the flesh of the practitioner is undesirable, either for safety, space, logistics, or costs. Someone mentioned taxi-drivers, which is a very good example.
They don't substitute for vacation. They might very well satisfy that urge to travel ... just like people watching Discovery or Nat Geo in the comfort of their homes. You can do this everyday as opposed only a few times a year .. which you can still do.
- The icon on the forehead of the robot should indicate who is currently controlling it. - This could even be a little screen for a webcam in front of the controller. - An office full of these robots could be an innocuous setting for a "secret" Turing test.
If is weird, though, that a robot would be used in a context that could perfectly suited for virtual interaction. Kinda like a cartoon car with arm to control the steering wheel instead of controlling it directly,
However, I always imagined that the telepresence would include a holographic projection of the person being telepresenced, rather than an ugly robot. This might also solve the problem of people not naturally prefering to communicate through a robot.
These robots really need an LCD screen to show the face of the remote user though. I think we naturally attribute traits to the robot itself, not who's controlling it, and that's the weird part. Have the user's face appear and it's just "Oh, it's Bob. Hi Bob!"; (conceptual) problem solved.
I am somewhat ignorant about trademark, but thought I would mention it.
Really cool robot. It looked great on video.
Telepresence is a recently made-up word, so it's plausible that one could register it as a mark...but defending the mark would be difficult.
Here's the 1980 paper where Marvin Minsky coins and explains the term (four years before Cisco was founded, and long before their Telepresence brand): http://web.media.mit.edu/~minsky/papers/Telepresence.html