That a great example of survivorship bias! Take a successful outcome and look back for decisions that must have led to it.
This ignores the people who also "saw the obvious" in 2003, 2008, and 2014 who lost their shirt.
This ignores the people who also "saw the obvious" in 2003, 2008, and 2014 who lost their shirt.
The examples I listed were not random chance. They are companies that had absolutely dominated their market positioning and were later massively rewarded for doing so. It's fairly easy to see when a company is eating everyone else's lunch.
Again, it isn't just random chance. It also isn't rocket science..
Of course, it is possible that one beats the market if either 1) one has privileged information, or 2) one has exceptional insight. Both situations are possible, but rather implausible.
Stock picking is the same as gambling, you look for value and try overtime to beat the market. Also like gambling is how people remember and talk about their wins but forget/ignore their losses.
Eg - Everyone using google, everyone eating at Chipotle, everyone being addicted to cell phones, etc.
Regarding non-consumer facing companies, I don't see what the problem is. If you have no information about the company, then it's gambling to buy it. So you miss out on some companies, no big deal. Most people only have enough money to make a few bets, so you should bet on what you know about. It's not like a test where you lose points if you don't answer a question; you don't lose money if you don't buy a stock you don't know about.
If the market would crash 30-50% tomorrow, which stocks would you buy? Probably Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and the likes.
Everyone has losses, and you can't always be right. But within your area of expertise or interests, you should probably be able to pick a few good stocks of good companies because you actually care and understand how they operate. But to do it structurally and consistently is harder.
I'm sure someone will reply bullshit, but that's at least what I believe. The market isn't efficient.
If it's so easy, then everyone would be buying the stock and it would be pushed up. Then you're risking buying an overpriced stock that's not going to be able to deliver on the expectations required for it to pay off.
Amazon is clearly eating everyone else's lunch in its domains but then it's trading at over 275 times earnings. It's not remotely obvious that you should buy Amazon stock at that price.
I've personally invested all my capital into my own ventures at this point, so I haven't really thought much about the next big thing, stock-wise.
But, short answer, look around at what products people (or businesses) are addicted to now that they weren't two years ago.
Not many people I know are addicted to Teslas. And Amazon was just as addictive two, or even five years ago. So it's well past its prime now (lol).