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Sorry if I’m being dense here, but I don’t actually see how you’re disputing that the threshold for attacking a single fork has (in the example) fallen from 51% of all bitcoin-capable miners, to 16%.

I don’t care whether sloshing is “normal healthy behavior”. I care whether a fork has become easy to attack. You seem to focus on every topic but that one.

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I guess you are missing the entire point of this conversation. It is about the marginal cost of participating on multiple chains with PoW. You can point out oscillations as much as you like, it doesn't change the marginal cost. You are pointing out something that is entirely orthogonal.

Your point was different from my point. I entered the thread to dispute that PoW schemes aren't weakened by forks. Here's the exchange where I came in[1]:

Original comment: "Also, with Proof of [Work] you get protection against an explosion of too many hard forks..."

My reply: "That's not what happened with the Bitcoin Cash fork though ... any given time, one of the networks is easy[er than 51%] to attack."

If you're not disputing that point, then you're not refuting my objection to that original comment.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15606486

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