I think the behaviour of Bitcoin price (not the technology) reflects some social phenomenon rather than the real economy. And it is precisely why it is interesting.
Maybe it's not that bad yet, but it's looking to get that way.
Spoiler alert: It ended really badly, but the people who got out early enough did make a lot of money.
Plot twist: I did invest in bitcoins back when they were hovering around 2k and sold them for a small profit (~10%). Yep, I wish I invested more and held on, but it's so easy to think this way after the fact.
Anyone can grow tulips and grow fake tulips that may look like tulips but are cheaper quicker to buy / make. You can't fake Bitcoin nor can you grow it indefinitely in your garden.
People who make the tulip comparison simply don't understand the revolutionary aspect of the technology. It's like calling the internet tulip mania back in the mid 90's. Blockchain technology will change the world. Bitcoin's value will boom and bust for many years to come. Where will it end up in USD terms? Nobody knows... but the technology itself will become as indispensable as the internet.
And why is a decentralised ledger even relevant to tulips? They're not bits of code, they're real things you own irrespective of whether other people know you own it.
Also, you need to distinguish between the blockchain technology and the value of bitcoins. Blockchain does not depend on bitcoin. Bitcoin can fail while blockchain continues to change the world.
The real value of bitcoin at this moment comes from trust that the hype will continue. It might. Or it might not.
People who make the tulip comparison simply don't understand the Tulip craze.
There have been a number of threads on HN though about the comparison. The tulip bubble is apparently not as interesting as its reputation leads us to believe
>"the tulip price crashed, not because it was irrationally high, but because of an external shock." [1]
https://stratechery.com/2017/tulips-myths-and-cryptocurrenci...
I also sold right before that dip to $3k for several weeks, I could have just as easily have lost half my gains.
This doesn't mean the price will go down though, it is notoriously difficult to predict when a bubble will pop and hazardous to bet against financially.
It's the fringe markets which suffer the most (btc).
The Twitter account @bitfinexed suggests the price increase is driven entirely by wash trading, and Bitcoin exchanges or brokers are not exactly the paragon of transparency as far as inflows/outflows.