We’re headed that direction anyway as the tech curves for wind solar and storage mean that fossil fuel energy generation is likely to be more expensive in 15-20 years.
We could have gotten here sooner if we had invested more heavily, sooner in these technologies. As it is we had a few forward thinking states like Germany to thank for where we are, with spot prices of wind and most solar being cheaper than coal, and often cheaper than natural gas.
This totally upends the few existing players that were once thought to have unassailable power. But now that companies that are heavily invested in natural gas are treating coal as their competitor and enemy in the political landscape, things are changing. Those natural gas heavy fossil fuel companies are actually asking for a carbon tax!
As solar and wind become bigger economic forces, we will likely start to see more consolidation and see fewer player with stronger political force to compete with natural gas. The nuclear industry has no power here, they let fossil fuel driven companies control their fate, and they have no industrial savvy to build an industry, and instead spend all their time tilting at windmills of weak political forces, and unable to build and deliver reactors when they do have eager customers.
It will be super interesting to see what happens with Perry’s coal NOPR that’s being evaluated by FERC right now. Has FERC been stacked with enough coal partisans, or will the rest of the energy industry win out?