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Comment by Boothroid | Hacker News Reader

I guess Spain is hoping that power still comes from the barrel of a gun, judging by the violence employed on referendum day - but interested to see what the hell Spain thinks it can do if the whole of Catalonia goes on strike. I guess it's a battle of wills now. How much of the population of Catalonia really want independence, and what sacrifices are they willing to make to get it?

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So I am not following this especially closely, but my understanding is that the vote represented a minority of the population and was done outside of legal channels. Your last question is really the most pertinent issue as far as what happens next—does the citizenry really care about this, and deeply? Or is it more of a power play drummed up by local political leaders?

At least the independistas seem to care about this issue deeply, there’s been much less interest on the other side.

It was done “outside of legal channels” in the sense that it’s not possible to do it “within legal channels”.

I have no particular view on the outcome of this, but the fact that upwards of half a million protestors turned out in Barcelona suggests that it’s an important issue.

> outside of legal channels

My understanding is that the polls were not universal, but only ran in the Catalonia areas with strong support for independence. And there was no vote security and verification, in fact, people were encouraged to vote multiple times in the same referendum.

So the referendum could not be construed as legal.

This is a highly emotional issue. Little of what is said regarding History or economics is remotely solid. In an age with particularly low bar for checking facts, I think this independentist movement has basically been sheppered by a few ones interested in manipulating the uninformed population.

I was in Barcelona the three days before Spain's ultimatum on October 19. And fwiw I saw hundreds of Catalonian flags hanging from the balconies, and very few (less than 5) Spanish flags. It doesn't mean much, but at least in Barcelona it seems that citizens are concerned.

That's interesting, I was also in Barcelona last week and I saw slightly more Spanish flags than Catalan.

I think the real problem is that Spain have consistently blocked a peaceful referendum. I don't believe Catalonia would vote to leave in a fair vote, but I do feel that the repressive actions of the Kingdom of Spain on this matter are the kind of thing that could justify declaring independence unilaterally.

Again, what is the repression of the Kingdom of Spain exactly? Not allowing the referendum? It was ruled illegal by the high courts. Catalonia should push for a change of that, but not blame the government for applying the Constitution.

Yes, not allowing the referendum. It was ruled illegal because the Spanish constitution does not allow secession, effectively preventing self-determination for Catalonia.

Denying people a right that's commonly understood to be fundamental to international law and then using violence to enforce it is repression in my book. Spain has consistently escalated tensions rather than offering a path to a real democratic decision. They're going to have to accept the repercussions of that decision.

You are probably reading biased media. Spain has not consistently escalated tensions, it's been done by both sides. I disagree that something like this is commonly understood as fundamental. Referendums need to meet some conditions and be agreed. Disagreement happened in both sides, it wasn't an authoritarian decision in spite of what some international media seem to enjoy saying. What is illegal in the referendum is: - it asks something that is not allowed to happen by the constitution (thus the need to change it first) - there is no clear definition of who is allowed to vote (who is Catalan by which definition) - the right to vote on the ownership of that land belongs to all Spanish just like any other region belongs to those voting there. - What's the level at which we do the referendum? Not all areas might want to leave in the case of a hypothetical "yes" (which is not a majority at the moment by any poll). What if certain areas want independence from Catalonia?

Most importantly: the referendum is illegal even by the autonomic law of Catalonia. They should have had 2/3 of the chamber to push it, and they did it with less than half (48% IRCC).

Indeed, there are plenty that say it's only a minority of Catalans that want independence. I have no idea. But I do think the idea of legitimacy is questionable - those against independence point to the constitution, but it's not like those are tablets of stone is it? Constitutions are a work of man, and states come and go, along with their laws. At what point does Madrid's rule become tyrannical? Just interested from a philosophical point of view, though certainly I'm thankful I'm not one of the ones in danger of a Spanish baton to the head.

> judging by the violence employed on referendum day

It was not as much as it seemed: "That woman who had all her fingers broken. She hadn’t. That six-year-old boy, paralysed by police brutality? It didn’t happen. Serious injuries on the day: just two." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/08/catalonia-demo...

The video I saw on the news was enough evidence for me. Are you saying that was faked? And in any case, as far as I'm concerned any level of violence is unacceptable. Madrid made itself look like a tin-pot dictatorship, which is particularly unfortunate given its history. It would have been far better to let the referendum happen and say 'and'? Reacting with violence demonstrated fear, not strength, and if anything seemed to strengthen the case for independence.

For better or for worse, there will be no independent Catalonia in the foreseeable future. About 40-50% of Catalans don't support this. The EU doesn't support this, no Western nation supports this (save maybe Russia if you consider them Western -- and even their position is unclear). Furthermore, Spain won't allow it, and they're the main actor in a position to do something about it.

Even if Catalonia somehow manages to enforce its declaration, the economic consequences will be so devastating that they will reverse course in due time.

Pardon my ignorance, but why would Russia support Catalan independence?

Same reason they supported Brexit - it causes instability and weakens the EU.

Russia seems to like Europe destabilized, in all possible ways.

Divide and conquer.

If I had to guess: (1) Because they feel that it would add legitimacy to the "referendum" they held in Crimea, if only by comparison and (2) just generally to cause trouble in the EU.

They see it as "payback" for the EU/Nato's support for Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence. Interestingly, Spain is probably the only Western nation that doesn't recognize Kosovo's independence.

I can't name a single secessionist movement that got distracted by economy.

If anything, economic troubles reinforce the determination.

Once people take independence as a question of pride, they're extremelly reluctant of considering selling their independence for money.

There have also been few successful secessionist movements that weren't backed by force of arms.

Anyway, I think the calculus is unique in this case. We are already seeing major companies move their headquarters out of Catalonia. Catalonia's independence would mean disruption of access to EU common market benefits and Schengen. Also they couldn't stop smaller provinces from voting to rejoin Spain.

Local militia is often sufficient after you manage to anger locals.

Not sufficient to win maybe, but definitely to mandate some sort of peacekeepers.

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