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If you go to apply.ycombinator.com and then “Previous Applications” if your W18 is there I’m guessing it’s a no?! But I could be wrong!

It's like that from long before.

are you saying that this is or isn't an accurate method of predicting the invite?

I spoke with someone earlier who got an invite and they did not see a change on their application. We have not received an invite or a rejection.

Could someone with an interview confirm?

what's your evidence?