How did we create a society where we can’t afford to live in our own country?
blogs.harvard.edu
blogs.harvard.edu
Was recently in LA, had a very excited Uber driver tell he just bought a house near Topeka, KS and it was 4 bed, 3 bath, unfinished basement, 2 car garage for $95k, on a 3/4 acre. He was extremely excited about moving. That's a massive house. There is plenty of cheap housing elsewhere in the USA, you have to be willing relocate.
The title should be "How did relatively small areas in California in the grand scheme of the USA make housing so expensive most people can't live there?"
Reminds me of that lady in SF who opposed a housing development recently because she said it blocked the sunlight to her zucchini garden. Now many YIMBY groups are adopting the zucchini as their logo...
So many aspects of our society seem forced to either-or situations when some compromise would benefit all parties more.
Perhaps not in California, but it's worth noting that some places, England being among the forefront in this[0], do recognize the right to light is an important property right.
For Georgia: https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2010/title-44/chapter-9...
For a well-functioning market that doesn't get bothered by protests and other political machinations, the government needs to provide an easy mechanism to pay for whatever it is you care about. Any market which is restricted to folks who can afford high-cost lawyers and custom legal contracts, that market will be inefficient. Saying, "put a building-height covenant on it" in effect means "let's spend money and time on political advertisements and protests so neither of us are happy."
Land value tax, please.
Granny gets to stay in her house and the market isn't distorted by perverse incentives. A win for everyone!
Moreover, granny might be a paper millionaire based on the current valuation of a principal asset but otherwise be eating cat food.
Why doesn't she just cash out? I think the below linked blog post has some insight into how each asset of a person isn't an isolated atom but represents a structure of complements.
For example, maybe Granny can't drive and walks down to the community center every day to help immigrant kindergarteners learn to code. If she moved maybe she loses exercise and a reason to live and her lives and those of others are negatively impacted in ways money from selling a house can't fix. Or maybe, since Halloween is coming up, she is a sadistic cat killer and if she sells her house and moves the whole neighborhood is overrun with feral felines reducing everyone's property value due to fears of cat scratch fever.
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2017/10/sel...
> Your feelings don’t matter
They do when the argument begins and ends with tugging at my heart strings. And I honestly don’t see these Jarvis arguments from the 70s holding up for much longer. Not when everyone else is hurting.
1) an empty lot, 2) a single family home, and 3) a 30 floor residential tower,
presuming they're equally-sized lots with equal land value.
If granny's taxes are high, the answer is to put her land to productive use like by adding rental units instead of growing zucchini. Or sell and buy better land for hobby zucchini gardening (or grow it on the roof of her new tower).
Regulations don't allow her to add rental units? Then it's the regulations that are bad, and finally land value taxes are aligning land owners' and renters' interests instead of dividing them.
Faux compassion for granny is how prop 13 got passed though, so sure, people fall for this shit.
Compromises can only be found where all parties are to gain something. If one group are to gain something - housing in this case - and whatever they can offer will reduce negative impact to others - local residents - there is simply no compromise to be found because whatever the state of neighborhood was when they moved in, it was the best compromise in their view.
But the radius within which homeowners gain is wider than the radius in which homeowners bear inconveniences (e.g. shade on their garden). So of course it's rational for a homeowner to be pro commercial development in their city and near their neighbourhood (as it would increase demand for housing, and hence increase property value), but against commercial development near enough to affect traffic and noise levels.
While increasing property value may seem rational to probably the majority, but given certain circumstances, preferences and goals the opposite can be easily argued to be rational. With modern metropolis lifestyle of changing home every some years based on workplace location, family size, etc. one is always in the market and increased real property value is quite favorable economically. For some groups changes in property value are seen as irrelevant in face of non-economic values.
OT, but:
"Taking actions toward increasing property value are only rational with intention to put the property into market"
No, even if you intend to die in your current home, increasing property values are great if (i) you can borrow against the value, to fund current expenditure and (ii) property taxes don't go up as a result (yay California).
"lifestyle of changing home every some years based on workplace location, family size, etc. one is always in the market and increased real property value is quite favorable"
I think that depends on whether you're trading up or trading down. If you want to buy a place double the size of your current one (e.g. to raise a family), then you'd want prices to be lower. As the differential between the sale price of your existing home, and the purchase price of the new one, would be lower.
Exactly, certain things can be argued to be either advantageous or disadvantageous, depending on mindset/worldview, focus duration (long-term vs short-term goals), focus population (single individual vs average/median of population), etc. and these are core to public policy making.
And that is my point: attempts to maximize quality of life for a single individual/family for a few years naturally lead to NIMBYs. And they are not inherently wrong - annoying with different focus (e.g. median citizen after few decades), but not wrong.
I mean I empathize with the YIMBY point of view -- I make about $56,00 a year as staff at a state university. That's right on the edge in the bay area. There will come a time when I can no longer afford to live here. I'm OK with that. That's how the market works. I don't think you have a right to live in San Francisco, or Malibu, or Los Gatos, etc. if you can't afford to live there. Everyone can't own a Ferrari. Everyone doesn't get to live where they want to.
Now image if the people living where the pipes come along, decided not to have them in their backyard..... because of democracy, they vote to tear them away.
No water for you....
Democracy can't exist without limits, otherwise you run the risk of 51% controller what the other 49% do in every way...
Zoning laws are restriction on the rights of what can be build in a property, and they should exist in a Macro scale,
Otherwise, your neighbors might decide against water pipes to come in your house, because democracy...
San Francisco itself has next to no indigenous lakes or (fresh)waterways. Lake Merced, Laguna Honda, and Mountain Lake. A handful of springs. Already in the 19th century, water was in limited supply and brought in from the Peninsula. Much of San Francisco (the Richmond and Sunset districts) were sand dunes. The part that wasn't was in large part wetlands (Marina, Financial District, SoMa, Bayview).
Rainfall ranges from about 12 in (30 cm) in a dry year to about 30 in (75 cm) in wet, but that's strongly concentrated in the winter months, meaning you need a large amount of water storage for the summer (and, again: no lakes).
If you look at a population density map of the U.S., or one with higher levels of detail showing urbanisations, you note that the pattern devolves from very regular in the east to almost a desert-island scattering in the west. Much of that is accounted for by water availablility, and the water shadow of cities. Look at the map below, which shows the Colorado River, and realise that Los Angeles's watershed reaches very nearly to Denver. In many ways, it is effectively preventing any other cities from emerging throughout that region (not that several haven't tried).
http://www.ancientrails.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/US_Po...
A precipitation average map shows very nearly the same distribution. (Not precisely, of course, but close.)
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/88/51/cc/8851cc3ed4f7e048b217...
You realize that unless you're getting your water from a well in your backyard it's being piped from somewhere?
And the backyard well option is used virtually nowhere in the developed world, and vanishingly few places with robust economic opportunity.
They don't have natural gas lines either. Or sewer lines. You'd be quite surprised how things still are in some places.
That's just not how the world should work. Every major city in the country gets its water and power from other areas outside their town boundry.
I presume you feel the same about power? Again, I looked up my closest major power source, and it's a nuclear plant about 30 miles away the other direction.
"It is ironic to tell service workers that, in the name of democracy, they can’t vote for the councils who decide the zoning in any of the cities where they spend their economic lives because they happen to live across a town border."
I don't think this is a problem at all. These people are pursuing a very rational arbitrage strategy between place of work and place of living - and it is paying off for them. It is not the "service workers" who are clamoring for less regulation in trendy housing markets - it is overeducated, underemployed hipsters whose self identity is tied to living in a certain type of place and whose life script no longer accommodates the steps their parents took to climb up the housing ladder.
If fancy coffee and cute stores are so important that one would sacrifice the basic building blocks of wealth building and family stability then so be it - but I am not giving up the progressive wins of the past[1] to enable this (bad) strategy.
[1] Which, in my neighborhood, are quite profound. The Pt Reyes National Seashore, the Mt. Tam watershed and accompanying open spaces, agricultural zoning throughout west marin, etc. Remember that all of these were all achievements of the progressive left.
I agree that parkland should be preserved. But communities that preserve a lot of park land should be even more eager to upzone residential land to accommodate regional growth needs. If a city wants to preserve land from development but refuses to upzone to make the remaining housing accessible, then this is indistinguishable from an exclusive gated community and I don’t think I would call it progressive.
Edit: Also, I don’t think I agree with your “very rational arbitrage strategy” point. If my city provides jobs, amenities, and increasingly upscale housing while a town an hour away provides housing for the service workers, I don’t think the existence of the arbitraging town would reduce the moral responsibilities of the city in any way.
I'm not so much referring to upzoning which, in general, I am in favor of.
I am referring to the much more general notion that I deserve to live anywhere at prices that preserve my relaxed lifestyle and refined tastes. This is false.
I am open minded about housing being a basic human right. However, I am flabbergasted by the ridiculous notion that anyone deserves to live in any particular place.
"If a city wants to preserve land from development but refuses to upzone to make the remaining housing accessible, then this is indistinguishable from an exclusive gated community and I don’t think I would call it progressive."
You're correct. It is an exclusive community and it's not necessarily progressive in that manner. There is a place for exclusive communities and they are not necessarily negative.
I dont think i saw anyone argue that. Do you have a source?
>> (I live in Marin County, in the SFBA, and I employ quite a few service workers from Sonoma/CC/Napa counties)
How long are some of your service workers commutes?
This kind of thinking is what leads to insulated wealthy neighbourhoods with good schools, amenities and low pollution. If everyone with access to nice stuff thinks this way, they just push poor people into the only other areas which are left, like down near the local power plant, where the air and water and soil have been ruined.
This sort of shit is how Flint happens and how "bad neighbourhoods" stay bad neighbourhoods for generation upon generation. That is, until some investor sees an opportunity to gentrify and pushes the poor people to a new and shittier part of town if not completely out of town altogether.
When Google/Facebook moved into Santa Monica and Playa Vista, house prices in near by cities shot up like 100% to 150% in about 4 - 5 years.
in SFBA it's almost entirely either unaffordable and/or dangerously crime infested and the semi-affordable options that aren't require an insane commute.
While there are some topological issues, the main differences between NYC and SFBA are transit infrastructure + density.
SFBA[0]: 8.75m people at 859/square-mile density.
Greater NYC[1]: 23.7m people at 1,781.3/square-mile density.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Bay_Area
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area
https://www.google.com/amp/www.ocregister.com/2017/06/23/how...
For a double income family that’s right around the federal minimum wage.
Now minimum wage jobs don’t actually support a house of that price due to health care, child care, crap hours, etc. but the idea that there aren’t jobs that allow you to easily buy that house in Topeka is ridiculous. To the point where I want to say “leave California” to you.
I was more expecting "number of job openings available" to be the problem, rather than the pay for any given job opening.
Though, admittedly, I don't live in the US and don't know its geography very well, so until I looked it up just now I was assuming Kansas was part of the infamous US "rust belt" where towns were depopulating and there were fewer job openings than people. I guess that's only happening toward the east coast?
I'm an Australian, and the American midwest/countryside is quite appealing to me. (Cities... not so much.)
This is probably why your company can't retain starting grads. Sure, the CoL may be lower, but the vast majority of young grads want something with more hustle and bustle.
Source: I was a young grad who lived & worked in a small town about an hour from the nearest interstate, but moved to a metro area after a year in that area.
Manufacturing used to be concentrated in these areas because it was cheaper to ship raw materials (especially heavy and bulky ones like coal or iron ore) in and manufactured goods out over water to the ports and population centers that at the time were heavily concentrated on the east coast.
As an added bonus, the region was conveniently (and thus inexpensively) close to the coal producing regions of Appalachia that produced the fuel that powered the factories.
Once railways augmented the port network, the Great Lakes port towns were some of the first and best connected to the rail system because they were already so important economically, and rail connections reinforced their position.
Especially because even with rail you would save days and dollars getting your goods from Chicago to NY compared to the time it would take to ship them from Topeka to NY - and the same applied to acquiring raw materials.
Rail also allowed towns in the region that weren't directly on the Great Lakes or the Ohio or Mississippi rivers to participate in the boom by building spur lines. Since steel production in particular was concentrated in the region, industries that relied on steel had incentive to concentrate there, near their suppliers.
The de-emphasis of boat and rail for shipping, and their replacement by trucks in the second half of the 20th century wasn't the deciding factor in the collapse of these towns' economies, but it didn't help either because it eroded their existing advantages.
Edited to add (though this is already long): the erosion of job opportunity in the US for the past couple decades has been occurring everywhere other than a few major cities such as New York and SF (and a few outliers like Pittsburgh, which was one of the hardest hit rust belt cities but has recently rebounded as a center for the medical and bioengineering industries).
Cities outside the rust belt (including those in Kansas) have also seen an erosion in opportunity as manufacturing and other mid-skill jobs have left the country or been automated away or further concentrated in the major coastal cities.
The rust belt was just the first region to be hit visibly by the problem, as much as 20 years before the impact became obvious in the rest of the country. It had farther to fall, too, being not just a stable economic region but a powerhouse.
Does derefr really think that there are no jobs in the capital city of Kansas that pay enough to afford a house under 100k? Not a single job?
Lol.
Edit: Ha ha downvotes for pointing out that high paying jobs exist outside of California. Nice.
Take Kansas. If in theory I'm making 100k and we're playing the "low taxes" game I'd probably be fine financially, but I think it would come at the cost of... well, a few things. School quality, for one- if I have kids are they going to be better educated in NJ/NY (where I am now) than Kansas?
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/education (note the sortable columns in the table)
Of course I'm happy to point out that Nebraska ranks higher than Kansas on either scale.
Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and yes Kansas
Derefr didn't imply that in the slightest, and it's rather uncharitable of you to point it out as "coastal elitism."
The question asked was, "but what do jobs in Topeka pay, and how many of them are there?," which to me sounds quite a reasonable question.
So that's why I downvoted you.
And you didn't actually contribute anything of value with that comment; of course 100k jobs exist outside of California.
>"Affordable housing" implies that there is a job at the destination that can pay a wage that can pay the mortgage
seems to imply disbelief that people can live well outside major cities. I'd prefer to be charitable, as the GP has stated elsewhere that they are not American and didn't know, but I've seen that line of thought here enough to understand why the parent could get defensive.
My life is exponentially better. I hate the politics here but I hated them in SF as well. Seems there's no middle ground for someone that's moderate, just extremes on both sides.
My mortgage is roughly the same as a parking space in SF, and yes I have to live in Oklahoma. I'll cry myself to sleep on my yearly european vacations, rental properties, retirement accounts and working every other year at most while doing my own self funded startups.
Almost all the jobs I see in Topeka are in retail "Sales Associates" = glorified title for minimum wage jobs. https://www.google.com/search?q=Topeka,+KS+jobs&oq=Topeka,+K...
How does this cabbie intend to make a good wage so he can continue to live in his huge house? Or does he not care, since he bought a HUGE house for $ 95K -- assuming it was all cash. If not, he has a mortgage to pay like everyone else, once a month.
Lawrence is the home of the University of Kansas, and is only 30 minutes down the road from Topeka. Quite a few opportunities there, including startups. Kansas City is about 40 minutes away down the turnpike with the opportunities of a 2+ million metro area.
No, he's not going to make the sort of money you do in California, but he's not moving to some economic wasteland either. He won't have too much trouble pulling in 50-70,000 in some white collar job and, considering the cost of living, he'll be quite comfortable. Probably more comfortable than a 100k job in SF or LA.
This was an Uber driver... you think Uber drivers are making 100k? You really think an Uber driver is gonna find a 50-70k white collar job in Kansas?
Also, you can't honestly believe that the ONLY jobs in Topeka are "Sales Associate" jobs. Your extensive 10 second google search was probably not all encompassing.
The 1,500 mile commute sounds like rather a pain, though.
Sounds like the issue is that our cities aren't liveable in the first place.
Source: I bought a house in one of these neighborhoods recently because it was so cheap. While there was absolutely nothing near me to do, going downtown still only took 15 minutes, so I had absolutely no problem with life there. I had my silence and my work-from-home office in my comedically large, cheap house and then if I wanted to catch a show or get dinner I would hop in the car and go downtown to meet up with friends.
I actually live in Boston now and am paying twice as much as my mortgage for a third of the space. Not an exaggeration. And it actually takes me twice as long to get out and do some things because Boston is so congested with traffic. Sadly, I think by the time I ever return to Austin, I'm sure it will have seen enough growth that it will be much the same cost to get culture from my suburban house.
I would find it very hard not to have a supermarket or a corner shop nearby for when I run out of this or that and it isn't time for the weekly shopping. And I would think it's an excellent small business opportunity.
For others that have existed for longer, sometimes the zoning seems to just be residential forever so sometimes you have to drive for a bit to get to the nearest "stuff". I think that's pretty standard for suburbia.
And then for yet others sometimes they're just too far out and too small of developments to make building a supermarket just for them financially viable.
Wait till you have kids. Turns out it doesn't matter whether you can see a post-alt-rock band in a small venue, it's past bedtime anyways, and spongebob on youtube works everywhere.
The parent poster is right: most of the USA is cultural wasteland. It's also largely an entrepreneurial wasteland. New value creation is concentrated in the same hot spots as new culture creation.
This is always true everywhere to some extent but it's gotten much worse over my life time. I grew up in Cincinnati, Ohio and I remember being a teen and an early twenty something there. You knew you weren't New York but there was a sense that things were possible. I worked on some pretty cutting edge software stuff around web and Internet there in the late 90s. Today it's an opium addiction ward and everyone who wants to do anything leaves. Meanwhile the "alpha cities" are experiencing uncontrollable real estate hyperinflation since everyone who wants to do anything must move there. This real estate hyperinflation problem is a symptom of something much larger.
The majority of the USA (by land area) is in a permanent malaise and has been since ~2000-2001. I quite frankly find it terrifying. It's a precursor to fascism, totalitarian socialism, or dissolution.
Uhh, I think we live in very different realities. Drugs and video games are proper subcultures in their own right. It has nothing to do with where you live and more to do with your identity.
Teens do drugs and play video games even in your shining coastal beacons of civilization.
>It's also largely an entrepreneurial wasteland ... Meanwhile the "alpha cities" are experiencing uncontrollable real estate hyperinflation since everyone who wants to do anything must move there If you're trying to become a millionaire making trash like Uber for banana hammocks, sure. Small businesses do just fine outside of dying small rural towns. Midwestern cities have plenty of work in my experience, it's just not the sexy "let's trick ourselves into thinking we're changing the world with our app" kind of work.
I mean, you're not wrong that there's a malaise going around the country in a seriously troubling way. We live in an era where remote work is very doable for many of us and there's no good reason we have to all live in coastal cities. My reflex is to blame the VCs for this, but there's plenty of other businesses that also don't do it for whatever reason. IMO this mindset needs to change, and quickly.
I agree about VCs. In my experience the coastal cities do not have a monopoly on talent but they do have a strong monopoly on investment capital for new businesses.
I think it's a branding thing too. If you were an angel and saw a company on AngelList would you be more likely to fund them if they were from:
(a) Mountain View, California
(b) Los Angeles, California
(c) New York, New York
(d) Cincinnati, Ohio
(e) Louisville, Kentucky
I bet you picked (a).
People with kids and responsibilities have different concerns from those who don't. Whether what I ate or what entertainment I consume are fashionable enough doesn't even hit the radar -- I'm happy if I can eat anything in peace or get any downtime whatsoever for entertainment. You'll be there one day.
The set of people living in the burbs with families are generally living for their kids first and themselves a distant second. Consuming more interesting culture is great and all but it's still just consumption. Even if you're producing art or music, that's something for people with a lot of time for it unless they're doing it professionally. (and lots of great music has been created by bored suburban kids, FWIW).
So the question is, how do you make the best of what you've got to work with? My wife and I moved from downtown DC to just outside the Annapolis city limits. We probably do more culture/community stuff now, because thanks to Uber and a low cost of living, we can easily justify trying those things out.
If I could find a comparable job in Topeka, I'd totally try that out. Yuppie cultural amenities are everywhere these days. Yeah, it won't be New York, but only New York is New York, but somehow the rest of the country manages to get by with their second-string versions of things.
It really punishes new young families.
example. say an old couple lives in a home presently valued at 2.5 million dollars in California, say they bought the home for 75,000 in the 1970's. So they pay about 750 bucks a year in property tax.
New family, buys the exact same home today, owes 25,000 in property tax a year. Over 2k a month just in property tax that doesn't exist for the older home owners that have been grandfathered into to low property taxes on a house whose value hasn't been reassessed for years.
Why isn't this talked about more?
New families get killed by this.
In some cases this keeps rent low as homeowners with 2 houses paying low property taxes can afford to charge lower rents.
But I don't think many house owners stop and think about that when trying to avoid that property tax.
So now you've just created a new aristocracy based on hereditary privilege.
The mistake rather is to found a family under such circumstances.
Eventually this kills your city.
As long as there are minimum efforts done to take care of the poorest, meaning charities and a minimum of a justice system, things are relatively good enough.
I think the debate rather belongs to why do we constantly need to use carrots to run a society? As long as society has rules that are in agreement with our natural instincts, meaning self preservation, things will be easily managed, but not easy for everyone.
When we will understand that "go get that income by yourself, joe!" cannot always function properly, maybe things will change a little. I have never understood the undying belief that "work is necessary for society to function". It is not. Humans have constantly worked to avoid human labor, but for some weird reason, people still want to work and mooching has a bad reputation.
We are just approaching a weird, dystopian future where food is everywhere, but for some reason humans cannot agree to find a relevant system to feed and shelter everyone properly. Capitalism is not the problem, it is just that nobody can agree on helping each other, and I sense that everyone is afraid of letting government be more gentle because it would somehow resemble communism or socialism.
Go figure.
But good luck fixing that. :)
> When we will understand that "go get that income by yourself, joe!" cannot always function properly, maybe things will change a little. I have never understood the undying belief that "work is necessary for society to function". It is not. Humans have constantly worked to avoid human labor, but for some weird reason, people still want to work and mooching has a bad reputation.
Believe it or not, this is one of the core arguments of Marx. I wonder what was your reasoning to conclude "Capitalism is not the problem". I'm very interested to discuss this.
I think talking about "capitalism" and "communism" is the worst thing we can do at this point, since these words are extremely politicized and they have no meaning at all. Like, today "communism" refers specifically to USSR's Ideology (state capitalism, centrally planned anti-consumerist economy etc...), a Stalin and post-Stalin form of Marxism-Leninism, which has pretty much _nothing_ to do with Marx's original ideas. Anyway, we should start talking about concrete things, like private property. And, it seems to me that, one logical conclusion of your reasoning is that private property is at least a problematic concept for our society.
The problem is absolutely capitalism. That system is what causes people to behave the way they do. "Human nature" is a product of our environment more than it is any kind of inherent and unchanging thing. Otherwise humans could not have survived and evolved to changes in surrounding nature as they did.
And the solution is certainly not Soviet style state socialism. But there are so many other options. I'm most interested by the attempts at a new social order that were made in revolutionary Catalonia and other places. Similar attempts are being made right now in Syrian Kurdistan - aka Rojava - where they are doing remarkably well despite the ongoing crisis. They call it democratic confederalism.
I wish more hackers read sociology, but unfortunately it is quite common among us to think sociology as an unimportant pseudoscience, without understanding any of it. When I discuss these issues with my friends, they quickly choose "but then Stalin killed XYZ million people" as their argument. He sure did, but that doesn't mean our world cannot be improved. And implications of this train of thought to our job (programming) are obvious too. Even though most programmers are rich, doesn't mean they're not exploited. Most programmers are forced by their companies to use certain softwares that surveil and spy on them. Some companies force their workers not to read GPL'd code _even in their free time_. Why do we accept this?
The gutter between upper class and poverty is nothing like the chasm between poverty and homelessness.
You're smart and self-aware enough to have this thought. Why go on and contribute your uninformed opinion? Why not research whether homeless people really are happy or ask people who've been homeless?
> As long as there are minimum efforts done to take care of the poorest, meaning charities and a minimum of a justice system, things are relatively good enough.
Happiness and hope don't come from other people's "minimum efforts".
This is the same reason that education, healthcare, and other human services are eating more and more of the GDP: anything that can't be automated becomes dramatically more expensive by comparison with things like industrial automation and information technology.
BCD applies to costs of production in which a given factor (typically labour) hasn't had its productivity increased, but because it competes for other employment, the price paid for it if any of the resulting good is to be provided must keep pace.
The interesting part is what BCD doesn't describe, which is the amount of the good provided. The canonical case is the string quartet: you need four performers, no matter how much technology you've got. But: the total demand for string quartets need not remain constant. Tastes could change favouring other forms of music, recordings or broadcasts can increase the productivity of the four essential players, etc.
(The evolution of popular music from self-provisioned to big band to amplified orchestra to amplified three- or four-piece rock groups, to synthesizer, to disco, rap, house/hip-hop, and now extensive one-person sampling acts, is one example of the type of shifts that can occur.)
The "factors of production" in housing are raw materials, housing, and land. Land itself is the original rent-seeking good, for various reasons that ... modern economics fails to explain very well. My argument is that land is a network of control points (owning land gives you control in the right to exclude others), and with varying access costs to other useful capabilities (manufacture, employment, trade, education, entertainment, ag, etc.). The characteristic of economic rents is that the prices they command rise to include part, or all, of the consumer surplus. This contrasts with commodities and labour in which prices generally fall to costs. That paired relation is David Ricardo's famous two observations: the Iron Law of Wages, and the Law of Rent.
(This is why I see both a rent tax and some mix of UBI / employer of last resort with a living wage guarantee as a probably necessary economic policy.)
So, thanks for the opportunity to play with some economic concepts, but Baumol's got nothing to do with this. Your men are Ricardo and George.
Costs are spiraling up because of restrictions on building -- both the density, and the transit that could handle it.
[1] TPTB a.k.a. the 0.1%, a.k.a. the majority of the owners of the majority of private property.
[2] The people that have to work to sustain their livelihood, or are not even that fortunate (jobless, impaired, etc.).
Interesting how the article compares the US of today with the situation in the year 1900. The country as a whole has become sooooo much more wealthy in that period, but still is not able to take care of it's population's basic needs. And it seems to be getting worse.
But it's a democracy, so the 99.9% should have the power to fix this, right? Well...
"If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal" -- Emma Goldman
Concentration of wealth in the hands of few: this is actually being promoted by all administrations the US has seen in the last decades. If only 80% of the insane military budget could be used to house, feed, cloth and educate EVERY citizen...
Here you see people as individuals.
> and that only the wealthy have the means to achieve it.
And here you distinguish classes.
I think this is a class issue, with at the top level: the "wealthy to the extend that you do not have to work to survive" at one side, and the "rest of us" on the other side.
Concentrating wealth to the extend that you can scrape by is a joke. This is called scraping by.
I saw this quote once and had to laugh:
"Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat, but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires."
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Steinbeck
I had to think if it when reading your comment :)
- there is no lack of cheap housing, however it's outside of main cities
- Concentration of wealth was worse in many moments in history, but that didn't imply in unaffordable real estate (at today's levels)
- Most government regulation works to restrict the supply of housing rather than expand it, even the ones that "theoretically" help with affordability (like rent controls - which I'm not against in some cases).
A major part of that issue is the voting population. Only people who have already overcome the "getting housing" hurdle are permitted in the elections that shape zoning laws.
There's still some variance there: homeowners profit from high housing prices, while renters profit from low ones. But even for renters, who theoretically want zoning laws relaxed, it's often not a top issue. Given that "weaken zoning laws" is a broadly conservative position here, weak-zoning candidates are usually blocked by the general liberalism of urban areas.
(And at least where I live, technocratic Democrats who might support progressive policies and weak zoning get crushed by entrenched Democrats with more funding and union endorsements. A viable candidate would need to be technocratic only on zoning laws.)
Fallacies, lies, and generally ignorant opinions include * Pretending the US was a more market-oriented economy in the past (which is not true)
* Comparing the housing situation 100 years ago to that of today. There are many reason why america in 1917 is very different than the america of 2017
* Literally cites a Wall Street Oasis forum post as a source on why we should not subsidize housing for the poor
* Income inequality is (obviously) a huge component of housing not being affordable (especially in urban centers) and this is dismissed using an obvious straw man argument.
One of the biggest housing subsidies is the mortgage interest deduction which is almost entirely captured by wealthy homeowners and financial institutions. It also definitely pushes up housing prices. If the author of this post had any knowledge of the housing market they would have brought this up.
Supply side:
* Zoning restrictions. Many cities are slow to up-zone because their voters enjoy the high prices (nimbyism).
* Lack of, or insufficient infrastructure limiting size of desirable areas.
* Generally high crime rates in urban areas, due to underfunded police departments and public services, also limits size of desirable areas
* Poor education opportunities also contributes to the limited amount of desirable housing, leading to extremes in home values
Demand side:
* US is the worlds #1 tax haven. Foreign investors buy US real estate as a means of wealth storage and speculation, which increases demand.
* Mortgage interest tax deductions for homeowners are essentially a wealth transfer from taxpayers to banks and homeowners.
* Artificially low interest rates greatly increase the amount of capital chasing homes. For example a $2000/mo mortgage at 4% finances $420k, but at 6% only finances $333k. (People buying homes right now should think about the implications of this).
* Irrational societal obsession with homeownership.
* Historical trend of price appreciation has fostered a false impression of home ownership being a good investment, despite the great risks and expenses involved.
Are corporate loan interest payment deductions also a transfer from taxpayers to banks and companies? Do you propose disallowing that as well? If you don't, you place corporate landlords at a distinct advantage over individual homeowner consumers.
If you do propose eliminating corporate interest deduction, that has huge implications on many industries where borrowing is commonplace (and arguably necessary to start a new venture).
>mortgage interest deduction
I agree we should get rid of that.
Low income housing does tend to act as a subsidy for landlords and low pay employers. Perhaps we could shortcut the misery of a whole bunch of people having to move and just raise wages directly, e.g. via a rise in the minimum wage?
Tying minimum wage to some function of house price and interest rates would be amazing.
The minimum wage is always 0, so this policy will likely lead to more misery.
.. which is also an option in the "drive out the poor people" scenario, no? Also, have we given up on the idea of making businesses try to obey the law?
My point is that the effective minimum wage is already tied to housing prices and interest rates. Get rid of low income housing, some poor people will leave, demand for labor will cause incomes to rise.
You're trying to solve the problem you created with low income housing by creating a new problem with hiking the minimum wage. The minimum wage demands that employers prejudice against the lowest skilled, lowest educated members of the work force by denying them the opportunity get training and experience by working. But that's okay, I'm sure next you'll tell me the solution to this new problem you created is to increase government spending on education and training for adults, and the cycle will continue.
That's the argument against "let the market solve it" as I've heard it applied to London. Not sure if it's actually valid or not.
A lower hourly wage which may still result in a net increase in quality of life, right? Because they live in a lower cost of living area. But surely not everyone would commute that distance.
>We've already figured out that having no minimum wage lets desperate people suffer worse.
That's certainly not what I've figured out. What I've figured out is that we put poor people into low income housing that unsurprisingly has no-choice crappy public schools and then we use the minimum wage to force employers to prejudice against the very people in the low income housing we forced into an education system that doesn't give them the skills/education necessary to earn a decent living. Minimum wage, low income housing, and no-choice public schooling is the holy trinity of liberal policies that harms poor people, and especially minorities, over the long term.
When reading Philip's posts, keep in mind that he's probably 10x smarter than you.
It's on a Wordpress site open to anyone with a harvard.edu, radcliffe.edu, or hbs.edu email address.
"Can we blame rich people stealing all of society’s wealth? Again, wealth inequality was very high 100 years ago. In any case, a rich person may cause us to become sick with envy but he or she doesn’t usually occupy 50 apartments at a time. So it doesn’t make sense to blame rich people for reducing the housing supply, does it?"
Actually, yes. This is certainly a problem in London, rich people buying houses that they remove from supply but then don't occupy. Everything from empty mansions: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jan/31/inside-londo... to empty luxury flats https://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/sep/27/one-hyde-park-... to empty flats built by evicting the previous occupants: https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/qkq4bx/every-flat-in-a-ne...
"Not only are all of the buyers of the new South Gardens foreign investors; from the 51 bought so far, many appear to be offshore – untraceable and untaxable. Every single one of the 51 purchases made is listed as "care of 2 Tower Street, WC2H 9NP". Helpfully, that's Riseam Sharples' office address."
Not to imply anything about the quality of the article; I just think it's fun to make historical connections to our Internet elders.
Zoning is a huge factor here - many of the "crummy" dwellings 100 years ago were in buildings/conditions that would today be illegal. Whether that's a good or bad thing (and what to do about it) is a separate question, but it shouldn't be ignored.
To be sure, a lot of Somerville is steep-staired, not-handicapped-accessible, and so on. But the most punishing regulations are also the silliest: high floorspace-to-inhabitant ratios, mandatory closets in bedrooms, punitive frontage and lawn space requirements.
At a certain point this doesn't look like a mystery: redeveloping in cities is inherently expensive, and conforming to elaborate regulations means only luxury housing (or sometimes, no housing at all) can turn a profit.
It would also be great if we would quit blowing huge bubbles in the market with poor monetary policy and attempted centralized control of something we don't understand.
There's no guarantee that allowing a collapse to happen would be better than what we have now. It's a very blunt instrument of economic management.
There may be other ways to sort out the problem. I believe we should focus on those.
Or perhaps you are talking about something other than the bailout like interest rates, in which case I would still be curious what you think would have caused the collapse
If the government had not done that, and had instead just given the banks money, the banks would have had the breathing room to sell their CDOs off for pennies on the dollar, devaluing the mortgages and thus the properties themselves.
However, even if banks were forced to sell off their CDOs, I don't quite see how that devalues the properties. Selling a CDO for a lower rate than before might simply suggest a reduced rate of people making their mortgage payments. For example if I have given Bob a mortgage on a house worth $100, expect to make $10 from interest, and think Bob has a 10% chance of defaulting, wouldn't the value of the CDO be roughly $109 (ignoring that the amount of time into the mortgage at which he defaults affects the price), because even if Bob does default, I still own the $100 house? And then let's say I run into liquidity trouble and need to sell this CDO for $101 (over $100 because my own liquidity problems don't necessarily affect Bob's), that doesn't seem to affect the value of Bob's mortgage at all.
Was the problem that the only institutions that could actually buy CDOs were banks themselves? So then if they were all illiquid, there was nobody who could even buy that many assets at once.
Why? Because it will be competing for buyers with Charlie's, Dave's, Eve's, Frank's, George's, Henrietta's, Irma's, Julie's, etc houses that are all also for sale after their defaults and those remaining standing with cash or liquid credit will be able to be choosy and drive a hard bargain especially if they're not going to personally occupy the property (as then they are largely indifferent among the competing housing stock).
Because the CDO's value is a representation of the value of the underlying security, at least in theory.
From other sources online
>A Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) is a security whose value is collaterized (i.e. 'backed') by a pool of underlying fixed-income assets. It is an investment that yields a regular return, its payments being derived from the performance of this pool. It is a financial instrument that traders use to sell securities that individually would be hard to sell (such as payments from a subprime mortgage). As part of a large diverse pool such securities would represent just a fraction of the total value of the underlying assets making it as a whole attractive to investors.
If the value of the CDO goes up it may represent that the ability for the underlying debt to be paid is more likely. If all debts are being paid it may represent that the initial value the asset was sold at was too low. E.g. the seller is not optimizing their ability to profit. Similarly large firms can signal weakness in the market by selling of the CDO for a lower price, divesting themselves of the future risk.
Markets are not bottom up or top down. Every actors behavior in the market can signal behavior changes in other levels of the market.
The route to success today (for all but the few fortunate and motivated entrepreneurs) is to participate in a thriving economic engine - and those engines and the jobs that provide opportunity to do anything other than scrape by while accumulating credit card debt - are concentrated in certain cities. Which in turn is why people are flocking to those cities and housing prices are skyrocketing.
Businesses in turn gravitate to those cities because that's where the smart ambitious employees are concentrating themselves, and it's easier to hire capable employees in areas where they're densely concentrated than to try to attract them to a lightly populated area where you're the only opportunity, or to tease out the few people stuck in that area for family reasons from the rest who simply lack the skills or ambition to do the jobs that people are moving to the cities to seek.
"Using data on gross state output, the authors find that a doubling of employment density increases average labor productivity by around 6 percent. More than half of the variance of output per worker across states can be explained by differences in the density of economic activity."
The big things as a result of it are what caused it. Debt is inversely proportional to freedom, and the wealthy have gobbled up so much of what allowed us to prosper in the first place.
People that always go on about taxes or the budget deficit etc need to realize the fed is a root causal issue here.
Also, two more points. I think the fed is unconstitutional, and I think Hammurabi had it right that such a system requires regular debt jubilees.
Because hotspots need to be fairly small for the reasons you say, and the demand for that space exceeds the supply.
But what about food and clothes? What about books? For all our wealth, everything in the US is dozens of times more expensive than in some poorer countries. Can we develop a society that produces these products at a similarly low cost while sustaining our lower classes in other industries (since the ultimate floor for costs of goods in the US is the cost of paying laborers 'living' wages)?
Example: If you wanted to start a business that would consume more city resources than city infrastructure could support, say sewage/water/parking/etc, the city would deny a permit to build.
Why not restrict the number/size of businesses in a location based on how many people/workers could reasonably afford to live there?
Density tends to increase economic productivity and spur growth. Being close to other businesses, services, and population essentially reduces latency.
"Using data on gross state output, the authors find that a doubling of employment density increases average labor productivity by around 6 percent. More than half of the variance of output per worker across states can be explained by differences in the density of economic activity." https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v86y1996i1p54-70.html
You have maintenance/depreciation and insurance expenses, and have the opportunity cost of whatever capital you have tied up in the property.
I think home ownership is a great choice for many and I own slightly more than 50% of the house we live in [the bank owns the rest right now]. But there are very real costs to ownership and they don't stop at property tax IME.
You'd have to design and build a custom home way outside of the designs considered normal for the market to make it significantly more (but not completely!) maintenance-free in the long run, at a significant increase in construction cost. But then you've subjected yourself to another hidden downside: the more strange/custom/expensive a home is, the less liquid that home will be on the market if you decide to sell later. A home that's awesome to you but not-awesome to 95% of the market doesn't move. And if you're stuck with it and it's a significant chunk of your wealth, then you can't move cities for that new job or whatever.
you mention hvac. i will not have hvac. you mention repainting, i dont have to paint if i dont want to. you mention flooring, my floor is concrete. you mention sheetrock, the sheetrock will be fine.
all of this is well within code and well within what i would call normal. but i hope that people will find it strange or un-buyable because that would reduce the market value of my improvements to the land and therefore lower my property tax. i am aiming to get the lowest operating cost possible, and having a home that has low liquidity actually greatly helps that. not every home has to be a flipping scheme.
I chose our current house in part because of the slate roof and unpainted structural brick exterior (both very low maintenance). I admire your search for low operational cost housing; I hope that your eventual house comes out just as low cost as your optimistic projections above.
What happens when a hurricane rolls through and rips off your roof or there's a fire?
2. Don't build homes out of flammable material.
3. Use the money you would've spent insuring a house on repairing it.
Example: Did you ever have to run out to your local hardware store to pick up a small widget (e.g maybe a few screws of specific size, length, etc.) late at night...only to find that the store doesn't stock that exact type of widget that you need...the hardware store doesn't stock what you need because most of their customers buy typical stuff, and your needs are too long-tail. Let this seemingly little annoyance happen to you a couple of times before you start hating that your home is "one-of-a-kind". And then you begin to buy parts/widgets that cost too much - either because you have to drive all over the place (and maybe you buy an extra widget to avoid repeated future searches) or because the widget costs a premium to begin with...Or, worse, you begin to use 3rd party repair providers - because they regularly stock weird widgets like what you need - and then you're paying them a slight premium to repair (which maybe you could have repaired if you only had the freakin' part/widget)!
Or...What if your property has trees on or near it...and your area goes through seasonal changes where the leaves fall? Maybe you care (or don't) about raking up leaves...Or, maybe your town has ordinances - or your community has local "rules" - about you needing to keep your land "neatish", and then "forces" you to clean up your area through fines, etc. Here again, you can pay someone else to rake/pick up the leaves, or you can do it yourself. Bam, you pay one way - either time or money.
There are countless other examples - no matter the home or location - where owning a home requires investments in time or money, and often both. And, if anyone tells you that "they love working on the house, or cleaning up their yard"...and that it doesn't count as money or time used up, then managing their home is basically their hobby...and hobbies cost money and/or time.
This depends on the city and its planning regime. I'll agree that in many cities ownership+mortgage is much cheaper than rent, but I'd be interested to know where you can "just" buy land and build a house.
(Also, not having buildings insurance, which is not actually all that expensive, is a very big bet on your fire safety)
Pack people together again, relax the code on plumbing, watch the people who make our salads pick up some still very dangerous and painful diseases.