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Counterpoint: "Xi Jinping Has Quietly Chosen His Own Successor" http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/20/xi-jinping-has-quietly-c...

I guess these predictions are not necessarily contradictory, because by picking one of his own as General Secretary he would retain a lot of influence (in the extreme case he might effectively retain all power, like when Dmitry Medvedev was President of Russia in 2008–2012). In any case it will be interesting to see what happens.

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Its very hard to analyze what Xi's status will be. Chinese political system is very complex and opaque, but it has internal structure. It resembles some kind of elective monarchy were noble class rules and elects ruler and his handlers based on complex balancing of power.

Many questions will be answered tomorrow when they announce new members of the Politburo Standing Committee and we will see how many Xi's allies are added.

In the past they could change power peacefully because the outgoing leader didn't fear reprisals from the incoming one. But if it is accepted practice to attack others under the guise of 'corruption', then the outgoing leader always has to fear being purged. Can Xi trust that the next guy won't be able to find some excuse to purge him?

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