I’m inclined to believe you. Can you share a source? Homeless populations move around the city in response to police, etc., so the total number can be completely opaque to the average city resident.
"Just-released numbers from January’s homeless count, conducted every two years as a requirement to receive federal funds, show a very slight decrease. The drop is attributed to fewer families and youths among the homeless, while the number of single adults living on the street — the most visible — has risen."
http://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Despite-money-an...