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I don't think the Atlantic piece is suggesting that at all. The article is making the point that the delicate power balances behind the Chinese Communist Party is very complex, and that the soundbites we hear from our Western media (or any media for that matter) probably do not capture the full extent of the power dynamics, wheeling and dealing, and inner workings of the Chinese Communist Party.

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Last time I checked, the power balances are not necessarily complex, they are opaque. They could rely on tea leaves readings for all we know.

Most of the "analysis" you read are pure speculations based more on wishful thinking and prejudice than on facts.

Wishful thinking? Most of the news seem to be very pessimistic about the future.

Reminds me of how every "expert" said Trump wouldn't win. It was amusing how everyone was surprised to find out there's a whole landmass between NY and California. Fly over country for sure but eligible to vote.

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