Is Android Leaving the Door Open for Microsoft Windows Phone

I have to disagree with part of what seems to be the thesis here, which is that the smartphone market is a zero-sum game of some kind, and that Android is leaving open a door vs. smothering Windows Phone - I think that's a little bit too binary. I think there is all along a particular niche for MSFT to leap into, if it can leverage its worldview successfully.

Microsoft operates through a synergistic platform lock in that makes its world go round. Office feeds Windows and Windows feeds office; throw in developer tools as well and it all works together. The more dependencies you create, the stronger the system becomes -- or at least, that's how it used to be, especially when market power could be brought to bear. Billions to lose is valuable (Bing!) but unless you start paying people to take your phones and create a market, it's hard to start from nowhere, no matter what you're selling.

This said! I think that if Windows Phone offered super ultra mega strong support for Office products and the like, there would be a compelling business / corporate use-case, above and beyond the competent Exchange support you see competitors offering. Some differentiation and good execution makes the difference here, because the problems that face Android are 1) not necessarily going to persist and 2) not necessarily going to stop its steamroller march to market penetration dominance.

I think we will see a lot of changed expectations going forward with Android 3.0 gingerbread and beyond. The Android team's stated goal is to do away with the demand for 3rd party UIs and, while there will doubtless still be those who want to cover it with ugly and add bloatware, I think there will be compelling reasons to stick with stock, or at least, not to ruin it.

Besides, what's the prize here? Consider Windows. Setting aside differences between Mac v. PC and Android v. anyone, the fact that Windows can be skinned and filled with bloatware hasn't stopped the platform's dominance, or the Microsoft gravy train. Apple has great margins on their hardware, but they're not on the fast track to displace Windows, are they? Likewise, if everyone is selling Android phones filled with crap, well... they'll still be selling Android phones : ) Though I'd be sad to see that state of affairs, and it definitely would open up more room for competition.

Finally: "After killing Windows Mobile 6 and the KIN Microsoft finally has their shit together." Really? Let's hope so :) I am rooting for the folks in Redmond, because I think more innovation is always best here! I am excited to see what comes out, but seeing what has happened before, I am not going to be waiting around for a Windows phone -- for starters, because I just got a lovely new Incredible a few months ago! :D