Directly proportional to the probability of everyone having a computer and the tech understanding to get a bitcoin wallet.
Also, we are in the early stages of bitcoin today, so yes, you need to have some tech understanding. This will all be abstracted away soon. Do people need to understand TCP/IP to use the internet? Understand the internal combustion engine to drive a car? The same will happen for cryptocurrency.
[0] https://www.strategyanalytics.com/strategy-analytics/blogs/s... [1] https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/02/6-1b-smartphone-users-glob...