John Carmack's Keynote at Oculus 4 Live Stream [video]
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It was QuakeCon 2013, although I'm not sure which part: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUxcVzpeFqc
I wish he would give Elon Musk some mentoring on how to communicate with a technical audience. Or just a regular audience, I guess.
It's similar but not identical to the reasoning for actors and directors to be good entertainers and interviewers. Those folks constantly think about manipulating people's emotions in general, but game design is completely focussed on just manipulating people into excitement or flow states — and that just so happens to be the emotion you (usually) want people to have in reaction to a presentation: the feeling of "I'm going to go out— and buy their thing —and change the world."
UT99 had some fantastic level design. Facing Worlds, Phobos, HyperBlast, Deck 16, Coret, etc.
Doom (2016) was released after Carmack left, but it's one of the best shooters they've made.
Q3 is more minimalist, which makes competitive play more interesting. Q3 has also maintained a competitive scene to this day where UTs seems to have fizzled out.
Personally, I prefer to describe "thinking about manipulating people's emotions" as _empathy_, but that's just me.
Empathy is the core skill, yes, but there's a sort of... I almost want to say an instinctual disgust? that people also have to overcome, when they want to turn empathy around to use it to change someone else's mind, rather than just using it to predict someone else's mind. You have to become at least a little bit of a sociopath, is maybe the problem.
See, other people have different foundational beliefs—different axioms they're working from. To use "empathy aikido" on them—to come up with arguments that will convince them of something, not slowly and laboriously from logical first principles, but by building up quickly from what they already assume to be true—you have to be willing to make arguments that are true under their axioms, but not under yours. That is, you have to be willing to use arguments that you think are false, just because the person you're trying to convince will believe them.
It feels weirdly like lying; like you're a politician swaying the populace with empty rhetoric. But you're not saying things that nobody would believe (if given long enough to think about them); you're instead just getting into the head of—empathizing with—the person who holds those axioms, and then saying things that you—as that person—really do believe.
This is why, I think, there's a big divide between people who like or hate the idea of "salesmanship": some people fundamentally see it as lying, while other people fundamentally see it as empathizing.
Personally, I think it can end up either way—some people "sell" an idea while holding back a bunch of facts that, under their axioms, are total deal-breakers. Others, though, "build a bridge" between their interlocutor's world-model and their own, using their arguments to help the other person build a world-model enough like their own that they can then present the facts that they believe to the listener, and the listener can understand them through the "consensus schema†" they built.
† https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schema_(psychology)
People who are said to have "reality distortion fields", I'm guessing, are just good at making those kind of points that build a consensus schema, that they can then state plain "facts" against which will seem—within the consensus schema—to be obvious, rather than having to convince you of each fact through argument. Despite the gnawing feeling that accepting that consensus schema into your brain is sort of an indoctrination into a cult, it's really the less ethically questionable of the two options, in my mind: the speaker doesn't have to say anything they don't actually believe (other than the arguments required to build the consensus schema.)
It feels weirdly like lying; like you're a politician swaying the populace with empty rhetoric. But you're not saying things that nobody would believe (if given long enough to think about them); you're instead just getting into the head of—empathizing with—the person who holds those axioms, and then saying things that you—as that person—really do believe." -derefr
Response to derefr: If you are willing to use an argument that you think is false then, by definition, you are lying [even in situations where the lie can be mistaken for truth by others].
and
> "E.g., 'putting your best foot forward' for a job interview or first date can feel like a kind of dishonesty, although it's expected in those cases. I wonder how you could start drawing a definitive line between "good" empathic manipulation and "bad" sociopathic manipulation, when even just smiling at someone can be manipulation of a sort?" -zazen
Response to zazen: If it feels like dishonesty then it most definitely is. Consider cases where the interviewee simply lacks confidence but puts on a facade to appear otherwise. As for drawing a line between "good" and "bad" manipulation, reference derefr's note:
> "To use "empathy aikido" on them—to come up with arguments that will convince them of something, not slowly and laboriously from logical first principles, but by building up quickly from what they already assume to be true—you have to be willing to make arguments that are true under their axioms, but not under yours. That is, you have to be willing to use arguments that you think are false, just because the person you're trying to convince will believe them." - derefr
The addition of "but not under yours" constitutes manipulation on grounds which are aside from truth.
It takes a different thought process to convince someone that e.g. climate change is happening, if they're a Young Earth Creationist, than it does if they're a paleontologist. It takes different arguments to convince someone to donate money to charity if they're a deontologist than if they're a consequentialist. None of these axiomatic positions affect what (empirically discoverable) facts are true, per se; they just affect what facts are relevant to changing one's mind about what one should do—that is, these axioms influence how the "is" statements† a person hears will affect their confidence in various "ought" statements.
† https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Is–ought_problem
So, this kind of "empathy aikido" is less about modelling a person who believes different facts are true, as it is about modelling a person who cares about the truth-value of different facts than you do. It's not that you might have to believe [X thing you believe is true] to be false; it's that you will have to pretend that [X thing you believe being true] is not a compelling argument, and might be so unimportant that you've never even thought about it and never will. Whereas the truth-value of [Y thing you don't care about] might be, to the person you're talking to, the most important thing in the world; the "trick" is figuring this out and then using a (true) argument about Y to convince them, despite thinking personally that only X, and not Y, holds any real sway over the truth-value of your conclusion C.
It can still feel bad, but I hope you can see how that intuition is less grounded here in any real injustice you're doing. Telling a virtue-ethicist that it is "noble" to e.g. donate to the Against Malaria Foundation, when you think that "nobility" is complete poppycock and the only thing that matters is that those donations mean people won't die, isn't an example of a lie. It is a manipulation, but not an illegitimate one—because, from the other person's perspective, it's just the honest truth.
I think genuinely arguing over whether something is true or false, is rarer than it seems. More often, I think we find ourselves arguing over which things are important, or how we should feel about something. In which case, I think you can put yourself in someone else's shoes and still be perfectly sincere.
Nothing to do with changing them.
If the other did not feel that deep understanding, empathy did not take place.
Source: I teach empathy with a worldview rooted in nonviolent communication. This is the definition I use; it is not universal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnJDQKcaS8g
So yeah, he was good back then too.
Perhaps Musk needs to go to him and tell him, Steve Jobs-style:
"Do you want to work for a company that invades people's privacy for the rest of your life, or do you want to come with me and change the world?"
Carmack's skills are being wasted at Facebook.
> As of August 2013, Carmack was "actively looking for outside investors to restart work on the company’s rockets"
Before stating assets were sold, likely due to lack of investment. SpaceX has the investment. Carmack & Musk also exchange tweets re rocketry at times
Or a clash of wills of epic proportions...
Often when something looks easy and efortless there is lots of work behind it.
It's not like people go home and talk to their partners about vertex shaders for a half hour.
Granted I've watched every QuakeCon keynote that was posted and enjoyed them all (along with reading every .plan). His enthusiasm is infectious. Yet even then he is breaking it down to the big things that happened that year, not the day-to-day stuff.
If it were over the dinner table every night, I'd probably lose my mind.
I remember he said he had some kind of training on how to deal with the "hmmm" and it got better, but the "aye" remains.
(Not complaining, I loved his talks before with all "hmmms" and still do, "aye" and all)
It's an engineer thing. Like Scotty from ST:TOS.
Public speaking well is hard. Most are not good at it, myself included.
That said, I'll take a poor speaker (Musk, older Carmack) over a PR drone any day.
This has reminded me that I used to have the same tick.
I was mocked a bit because of it in middle school and set on to remove it.
it took a conscious effort at first but I have not thought about this tick since that time.
Sort of.
Looking back, he sounded much more confident when he was younger [0] perhaps because he hadn't yet experienced life altering events like the loss of a child or coming close to bankruptcy at the end of 2008 after sinking his networth into SpaceX and Tesla.
I think his seeming lack of confidence when he speaks publicly today is a latent acknowledgement that the stakes are much higher relative to his PayPal days when the Internet was incipient, and that failure is still a possibility, regardless of the amount of resources he may have sunk into his investments.
No-one should be forced into attempting something unnatural to them, to satisfy the whinging of the the peanut gallery.
Musk is an effective speaker in my opinion. To be effective, you need not be eloquent, engaging, and charming. Musk has his foibles and stumbles around a lot, but that is part of who he is. I appreciate it.
"So what I set out to do was take the original Wolfenstein 3D, and re-implement it in Haskell."
[...]
"I've got a few conclusions coming from it. One of them is that, there's still the question about static vs dynamic. I know that there was a survey just coming out recently where the majority of programmers are still really not behind static typing. I know that there's the two orthogonal axes about whether types are strong or weak, and whether it's static or dynamic. I come down really pretty firmly, all my experience continues to push me towards this way, that strong, static typing has really significant benefits. Sometimes it's not comfortable, sometimes you have to build up a tight scaffolding to do something that should be really easy, but there are real, strong wins to it."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uooh0Y9fC_M#t=4876
(Starts at approximately 1:21:16 in case the direct link doesn't work correctly.)
"Any syntactically valid code, that the compiler will accept, will eventually make it into your code base."
Not so much when you're doing exploratory computer science, or blue-sky prototyping. To build upon his analogy, scaffolding is most helpful when you have a reasonable knowledge of the shape of the building.
"It depends on the context" isn't exactly a shocking discovery however.
I love Carmack, love his presentation style, and when he talks from experience, I listen.
I'm not sure. The following experiment is outdated (I'd love to see it redone more rigorously and with modern languages) and has several methodology flaws, but "An Experiment In Software Prototyping Productivity" (1994, Paul Hudak et al) shows that Haskell and static types are actually great for rapid prototyping and exploratory programming, even in the face of vague or incomplete requirements. This runs contrary to common sense, which is why the experiment was fascinating.
I am not sold on the premise of VR myself; nowadays it comes down to novelty byte-sized demos or "games", with the occasional random mainstream game offering "VR support" (whatever that means, which usually doesn't mean much).
There's also the practical issue of strapping yourself to gadgets and wires, and on top of that, this is still expensive. That said though, I trust Carmack, Abrash and other smart folks elsewhere will solve those problems, and wind up building better alternatives and "next gen" killer apps that do justice to the term(VR) will be developed and we 'll all eventually experience it.
These quotes from the keynote really stand out to me:
"If you think you've got that new killer app by all means go ahead and work on it but otherwise you can always spend time improving the existing applications and those are good muscles to exercise so even if it turns out that it wasn't the magic app - going through the disciplined work of making it as good as it can possibly be is whats going to need to be applied when you eventually get the magical application"
"Embrace the grind. You've all shown that you're bold by starting to work on an emerging platform that is not mainstream yet but it takes more than just being bold - you have to actually work really hard and you've got to fill your products with give a damn, to really care about every aspect of them."
"Success isn't about that one brilliant idea. Its about doing the one thousand little things right and getting it all done."
http://fd.fabiensanglard.net/doom3/pdfs/johnc-interviews.pdf
VR headset unit sales to March, 2017:
- Sony: 915,000
- HTC: 420,000
- Oculus: 243,000
Will Facebook keep pouring money in, or pull the plug?
[1] https://haptic.al/latest-virtual-reality-headset-sales-so-fa...
I think this is a longterm space that Facebook is definitely not interested in missing out on, so they'll keep it going.
How much does it cost really, in the scheme of things? If anything, I don't know why Facebook simply doesn't ante up and steal some of the talent away from the competitors, they have the cash to do it and I'm sure people would be happy to work under Carmack.
To what end though? Say they could spend $10 million and quadruple the resolution, halve the price, and reduce the barf factor of a Rift v2 in a year. What then?
They would probably be better off funding a bunch of people to try to find something compelling to do with the current generation of hardware. It's cool for some types of games, but a market that's a subset of a subset isn't going to set the world on fire. It's easy to come up with a cool demo and hard to come up with a good application.
As a completely separate peripheral? Generally speaking most external peripherals sell to niche markets.
In the current form factor, I just can't see it moving beyond a gaming peripheral anytime soon and the market for that is limited. I was excited when Facebook got into this because appealing to everybody is what they do. But there's been nothing.
I'm starting to think VR is a dead end. There is a market for it, but maybe it's not very big.
It's clear that Oculus are spending a lot of money on research, and have recruited a lot of people. A key quote from the article is:
"I signed up to build a 30-50 person research team. Oops. Orders of magnitude matter."
So there's at least a few hundred people just in the research team, and probably a lot others in regular product engineering as well. I think it's clear Facebook are pouring a lot of money into Oculus.
He also committed to spending 3 Billion more on VR development over the 10 years!
http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mark-zuckerbe...
These numbers, if accurate, are prior to the massive price drops from this summer. There was a huge spike in sales, with Oculus struggling to keep up supply (it took a few weeks to actually get my own order).
Unless the numbers were an order of magnitude lower, I doubt Facebook would be pulling the plug any time soon.
Oculus made it possible, and it's not working much -> that's unfair
HTC Vive has produced the best headset that made me, and many other, love VR. And they're not dominating the market, and they're not going to, and VR is not becoming this huge thing. It's the future really... I feel like that's unfair.
Expect VR assets in the Facebook feed, and this to slowly bleed into AR items.
That's the thin end of the wedge for wider adoption.
Like what? I've been thinking about this and I'm having a hard time coming up with something that would get my relatives to buy a headset.
Full WebVR content will follow. They're easing the masses into VR via changes to the feed.
Edit found one: https://youtube.com/watch?v=sjOKx5yntC4
Also interesting seeing now what is close to John's view of the queue for the Q&A.
Edit: 1:40:58
Not afraid of anything.
It certainly helps that he thinks about this topic from dusk till dawn. He has interesting comments and thoughts about everything the questioners mentions.
After the contest, he picked two bushels of berries and fed them to the bear just to show there were no hard feelings.
They are still friends to this day....
Basically the answer is nope
The oculus go sounds like it solves the major blocking issue since it is stand alone and thus doesn't depend on the computer for the 3d rendering capacity. There is still the question of if using the VR device for work is feasible/productive, but at least it is now possible which I why I was curious as to if any such software exists.
Some of the resolution mismatch could be solved by simply expanding the virtual screen and/or setting the computer to display at a lower resolution so that the resolutions match closer. Some of this is probably helped by using a cylindrical surface in the VR environment.
This rather complicated process does work with Gear VR (and so should work with Oculus Go), but seems to only support one monitor (and streams only games?): https://www.vrheads.com/how-stream-your-pc-desktop-your-gear...
I currently have two pet peeves: wireless latencies, and hand tracking. I want to cut the cable, which is cumbersome, causes problems if I spin too much, and tether me to a small area. I also want to track free hands (perhaps with gloves), for fine grained hand gestures (the Vive controller is good, but still a bit intrusive).
I was hoping to see a new Rift to address this, but as such I'm happily staying on my 95hz 34" 3440x1440 with TrackIR a bit longer.
So I can type while wearing an Oculus Rift. It's not a problem. And I'm sure you can do it too.
On the other hand, maybe lightweight haptic gloves are a thing already and I just don't know about it.
I think you mean "blank key caps". The alternative could be pretty painful, depending on the type of switch.