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tldr: 2037-2080 for "brainlike computers". sounds like a reasonable estimate to me. but who would say that is "nowhere near"? A few decades compared to billions of years of evolution to create life here on earth? a few decades compared to millions of years to go from monkeys to humanity? compared to thousands of years to go from prehistory to contemplating this question? a date that many of us will live to see? IMO this means we are on the verge.

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Since we're already at the level of coding genes, we are short-circuiting the normal process of evolution, which was a trial-and-error process. We are living in interesting times.

Slightly more in detail was his approximation that brain could perform 10^21 FLOPS vs 10^15 currently.

But yeah 2080 is within my daughter's lifetime. My 1950s house I bought will probably still be standing. I think it also coincides with Elon Musk's guess for when there'd be 1M people living on Mars.

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