Tell me, where's the clear winner between ruby and python? Between python and PHP? Between PHP and Perl? Between OCAML and Haskell? Plenty of languages have managed to rise in popularity through a time when you didn't know if
any of your code might run on the future winner. At least with Lisp implementations you know
some of your code will work with the winner. "Waiting for a clear winner" is not a reason for Lisp not to grow in popularity.
Perl, PHP, Python, Ruby -- none of these emerged from the womb with a full-grown development environment. They managed to grow to the point where people wrote Eclipse plugins or what have you. Lack of a "mainstream" development environment is not a reason for Lisp not to grow in popularity.