Before that, it was a big claim about an organization that never achieved reusability/reached GEO/made a space flight at all..

So far SpaceX delivers, and unlike every other player out there, going to Mars is their core mission. So yes they odds are much better than anyone else's, even if by the virtue of none remotely competent pursuing it at all.

Usually when people ask for a source for someone'e statement it's a good thing, but in this case... you're really asking for a source here? Really? I mean... really?