Bitcoin ‘More Than Just a Fad,’ Morgan Stanley CEO Says
bloomberg.com
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Currently, it costs about 9MWh per BTC, or about $1000 in electricity per bitcoin to mine on a pretty efficient S9 antminer. S9s currently go for about $2/Watt and require about 100 J/TH and weigh, I don't know, maybe 1kg per kilowatt (or 1000W/kg).
Solar modules are about 30 cents per watt on the spot market, produce about 100W/kg (if weight optimized, i.e. not such a thick aluminum frame). Since all the heat must be dumped into space at the ASIC's operating temperature, radiators are about 100W/kg and probably cost as much as solar modules ($0.30/W) if mass produced.
So 1000W of mining capacity would weigh 21 kg and cost $2000+$300+$300= $2600. To launch 21kg at $100/kg to GSO (this is an incredibly low cost, but could be achieved with SpaceX's or Blue Origin's long-term ITS/BFR or New Armstrong rockets) would cost about $2100. So a total of about $4.7/W.
Assuming the lifetime of that whole thing is about 12 years (a reasonable time for a risk-free doubling of an investment), that's about 12 BTC, or about $47,000 at today's prices, or a factor of 10 return.
(Today's BTC returns ~40 cents per kWh invested, this scheme would break-even at about 4 cents per kWh generated.)
...but: 1) There's a whole bunch of glue, like a network link and spacecraft subsystems that must be included as well as spacecraft processing.
2) Moore's Law in the strict sense is over, but progress still continues.
3) ASIC improvement is possible.
4) We don't have Musk's or Bezos' huge reusable rockets quite yet.
5) If return was this well-proven, you'd likely have a bunch of competition from even cheaper sources of energy.
6) I still think Bitcoin is far too volatile and speculative to justify this kind of investment. Given the reduction in mining rate, if you knew Bitcoin would be able to justify this kind of investment over decades, then you'd probably be better off just buying a bunch of BTC right now and holding it.
But maybe the future of cryptocurrency will eventually enable a less volatile and more proven return, making stuff like this worth investing in. I hope so.
* Price goes down
* Buy
* Say it's not a fad
* Price goes up
* Sell
* ...
* Profit?
But the Profit cycle is fully complete here.
Occasionally people are listened to because they have something to offer, like, say, running one of the world’s largest investment banks. His remarks immediately made Bloomberg, CNBC, and so on, which is just free PR. From the head of Morgan Stanley. Who in the current world, and not the glorious future one you want, commands respect and attention. Talk about biting the hand throwing your passion a bone.
And what’s your plan to make Gorman and other investment banks irrelevant with cryptocurrency? You’re talking about something like, what? A third of the world economy? I made that number up, but it’s probably even more. Nobody will have financial planning services and investments in your cryptographic future? End capitalism? How should I explain what you want to the soybean farmer next door who needs an ag loan from one of those very banks to buffer crop loss from an imported Asian pest? The free market will figure it out, and the entire system of capital allocation we all know is fundamentally broken and useless? If only he mined Litecoin?
The single biggest thing holding crypto back is tone deaf arrogance like this from its biggest proponents. Slow down, buddy, you’ve successfully monetized files of bits. Completely disrupting the entire world economy and making banks irrelevant is a wee bit far fetched and even if it isn’t, should be approached with a little more caution than a lot of crypto folks give it. You’re talking about the (imperfect) global system that feeds billions of people and keeps them alive. Show it some respect; only hundreds of thousands of people, nigh, millions, worked on it before the engineers with vim showed up and declared they know better.
Cryptocurrency is good. Let’s be reasonable when discussing it.
Said cryptobank is now allegedly using fake orders to buy up significant amounts of BTC (recently a 50,000 BTC order [2]) during market crashes.
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/6xpddt/as_20m_more_tet...
[2] https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/908718464671641602
Remember, it’s not money laundering, it’s tumbling. Big difference. It’s not wealth inequality, it’s early adoption. Big, big difference. Entirely different concepts.
I was basically financially illiterate until I had someone who could YELL the information at me. THANK YOU JIM KRAMER!
Someone gave me one of his books, the first part of the first chapter explains that "Mad Money" is money you can put aside after buying things like disability insurance and making sensible retirement investments (and having an emergency fund, and so on).
What is the most legit and safe method for creating a wallet and just buying a bit of Bitcoin? I wouldn't mind being able to drop a couple hundred on it and seeing where it goes, but it's hard to trust websites/subreddits that look like posts were written by nerdy 15 year olds.
They are one of the few reputable companies in the space. They follow all the laws, have a great looking site, have an exchange called GDAX under the same system if you want to try trading at some point, and they are pretty secure. Not to mention that any USD in your account is FDIC insured, and any Bitcoin is insured privately in case of a breach of their systems.
You will need to provide your id and it may take a week or more to get verified, and the fees are higher than alternatives, but honestly it's not that big of a deal, and it just reaffirms that they are trying to build a sustainable business and aren't going to close up shop tomorrow.
In coinbase there is a flat fee, in GDAX you only pay fees if you put a bid in, and there is no existing sell order on the books that would fill you bid. The reverse is also in effect, if you put a sell order in, and no existing buy orders meet your order, there is no fee when the transaction takes place.
GDAX is an exchange. Make sure you are comfortable with using an exchange. I'd recommend you always use a limit order if you are just starting out.
In coinbase you can make a purchase instantly and lock in at a specific price that instant (even if the transfer takes a week to really go through).
In my one case, I bought some at $2700, it took a week to post and actually give me my Bitcoin, but I got it at $2700 even when the price was at $3000 by then (the gains far outweighing the fee of a few percent). But in GDAX I need to fund my USD account which took a week before I can buy.
Yes the fees are less, but if you are looking for simple, spending $5-10 in fees won't hurt for a much easier and more straightforward experience. But GDAX is also fantastic if you are comfortable with it.
This isn't entirely true, most of their coin is stored cold and uninsured. They only have insurance on their hot coins. https://support.coinbase.com/customer/portal/articles/166237...
(I don't intend this as a knock, I too recommend them.)
Coinbase has zero customer support.
Edit: Apparently they have a call center now, but my previous experience with the company has left me with no desire to go back to them.
Just get an account on Kraken, Coinbase, Gemini or wherever and look that you don't keep your coins on the exchange for too long. Start with small amounts. And those nerdy forums and subs (I think you mean Bitcointalk and Ethtrader on Reddit) are actually good places to get started/informed.
There's always something people haven't learned. I would have had the same question, were I even remotely interested in getting into the Bitcoin fun.
Pro-tip: Go for a Ledger Nano S (https://www.ledgerwallet.com/products/12-ledger-nano-s), it is (IMO) the best hardware wallet available. Had a terrific experience using it, it is a genuinely great product.
1. Pick a high-profile exchange
Pro-tip: I had an absolutely terrible experience with Coinbase. And a far better one with GEMINI (Although I have issues that are +30 days old still open with their customer support. I'm pretty disappointed).
2. Get your account verified (KYC)
Pro-tip: If you are concerned about your privacy, you can always buy bitcoin for cash on localbitcoins. They have an escrow system.
3. Purchase cryptocurrency of your choosing.
Pro-tip: look at historical charts (both Linear/Log scales) and do your best to "time" your order, of course it is hard.
4. Move back funds to your hardware wallet.
Pro-tip: Whatever HW wallet you choose, do not leave your funds on the exchange. Just don't do it, accounts get hacked all the time (even with 2FA), exchanges get hacked all the time, remember MtGox and learn from others' mistakes.
I'm really curious to hear what's the rationale behind your post. Please elaborate.
I recently had my hardware wallet (a trezor, which is the nicest one) fail during a firmware update. Now, obviously I have a backup of my seed, but for those few minutes that backup became a VERY expensive little widget.
When I travel, I have to worry about where my backups are stored. Storing them in a bank vault means I have to worry about the bank vault.
If I have a hardware wallet, I'm essentially betting that I am better at opsec than coinbase, a >$1billion company who devotes a non-trivial amount of resources to opsec. Keeping my own wallet means I am arrogant enough to believe that I can out-opsec the team of security people they have there.
That's absurd.
There ARE reasons for a hardware wallet (which is why I have one). The bCash split recently is why I have mine.
Keeping your own wallet and "being your own bank" is a really fun cyberpunk fantasy, but there are plenty of practical reasons to use banks.
If you are asking the question about how to buy bitcoins in 2017, then the answer is unquestionably that you should both buy and store you coins on coinbase.
Do we really want users to have to understand DevOps six-nines infrastructure reliability, disaster recovery, and stay ahead of the infosec curve in order to hold cash? Not only is the unacceptable for mainstream consumers, i'd argue it's unacceptable for all but the 1% most savvy enthusiast power-users.
I'm sure people who were using Mt Gox felt the same way. Part of the equation is you're betting you place your own interests at a higher priority than the people who run Coinbase. Which is almost certainly true.
https://support.coinbase.com/customer/en/portal/topics/79436...
That is such terribly bad advice that I cannot ignore your post. Storing any amount of coins on an exchange is a liability that is far more considerable than keeping your funds on an encrypted USB-key sized device that you can keep at your home, or at the bank, or anywhere you think it will be reasonably safe. It has fail-recovery procedures built-in so that even in the event of a hypothetical hardware failure, you can recover your funds. If you're even a tiny bit technical it won't be a problem at all.
Your argument boils down to your one single bad experience with a hardware wallet that you dub the "nicest one" despite popular knowledge and maybe because of its price alone. And that's despite being able to recover your funds safely as advertised. And the rest of your post is split between audacious comparisons between banks and exchanges that I won't bother to address; and appeals to authority ("exchanges know better!") that has been debunked over and over again in very recent history. I don't ask you to believe me, for every high-profile case you hear of MtGox, Bitfinex, BTC-e etc. there are many more smaller exchanges that (just like the big ones) sink with their customers' funds.
Now this is what I come to HN in the morning for.
Options and derivatives are risky. A merely volatile asset that never expires is pretty conservative in comparison.
Many other coins have gone up 2x, 5x, even 10x in the last weeks/months.
Bitcoin going from 4K to 20K in 4 years (ie 5x) is relatively tame.
Why like 20k (as opposed to like 100k or like 1k)?
You just have to do a calculation involving the number of people on the planet to figure out when the supply of new suckers runs dry and the price crashes.
I'm bullish on crypto but McAfee is... well something else.
Bitcoin's network is not scaling well.
LN, for example, is adding degrees of centralization to achieve better scaling. Human systems have a tendency towards centralization and consolidation of power/authority as well, as we see in various ways already with Bitcoin (China, Ver, Core).
There's overwhelming evidence to believe that the future of Bitcoin is much more centralized, at which point it starts to resemble the systems we already have but with horrifying disadvantages: your entire transaction history is public to everyone, your identity can be linked to your wallet through exchanges, etc.
Another example is that the electricity cost to run the system is going up at an unsustainable pace. Eventually they'll have to switch to an new way to propagate the blockchain something other than Proof of Work mining.
Most likely though, these problems will be solved with some kind of hard fork rather than BTC dying.
Real investments have a return derived from capital. A house, for example, can be rented out for money. Or a business can earn profit and distribute it to its shareholders. You can try to buy and sell houses like people did during the RE bubble for profit, or try to buy and sell stocks like a day trader, but these are still fundamentally different from an "asset" which has no means by which to generate a return on its own.
You can buy goods and services with Bitcoin. It's just another currency. Do people claim that forex is not investing?
Not really though. You can buy a few novelties online and there are a handful of places that accept bitcoin, but realistically it is not "just another currency", it's an IOU for usable money.
Yes, all the time. It's clearly speculation (in the technical sense)
I'd say, more so, the distinguishing factor between an investment and speculation is that an investment is used to facilitate a business process that could potentially create wealth whereas speculation is a bet that something of value will be worth more at a later date.
It's like, I think that lithium is gonna be short in the near future. It's really useful stuff. But I'm not buying kilograms of raw lithium to hoard in my garage, I'm investing in the companies that oversee the element's mining, processing, surveying, etc. And maybe looking at commodity options in the short term, but given what happened there with aluminum...
Crypto can play a similar role.
Just don't consider it an investment, and don't put anything into it that you'll miss. Investments are tied to real world value, returns and having a say, bitcoins have no real world application or substance outside of financial crime.
https://www.coindesk.com/information/what-can-you-buy-with-b...
I don't think he means bitcoin in particular, it could be any crypto currency. Bitcoin is still a ponzi scheme in bubble phase.
Who's behind the sceme? And if you say Satoshi, you should think about what stocks are.
1000 years ago it was cotton instead of gold
I wouldn't know where it doesn't belong ;)