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I don't already understand how an app using redux works when it reaches a decent size; therefore don't know what problems it will have and need to learn moreThis sounds like a problem of inexperience (which is a problem everyone faces when using a new tool). If you've never used Rails, you're not going to understand the long term implications of maintaining and scaling a complex Rails application. If you want to know what problems you will encounter, you'll have to read a book or learn the hard way, the same as any other tool.
> I can't start using redux to understand those problems without making important architectural choices early on,
This means you're not experienced enough with redux to be making those choices and that's ok; use an alternative tool that you understand well, hire someone with the relevant experience, read a book, or understand that you'll have to do some refactoring later on if you make the wrong choices today.
> redux on its own seems to need about ten packages before you can load information from a json api and pass it to react, a task which is the basis for most toy apps; therefore, every toy app I write seems bloated and heavyweight
This is not correct, but also "not even wrong" in the sense that this concern is outside the scope of redux. If you want to use a bunch of redux related data packages that's fine, you're also free to use GraphQL, Backbone, fetch, jquery, webosckets or straight up XMLHttpRequest. When I hear "I need 100 packages just to do X" it's usually a sign to me that the developer is somewhat inexperienced with the ecosystem and tends to defer to a package whenever they need to solve a problem; this is usually the wrong approach, it's like someone complaining "I need 10 packages just to do string padding"... well no, you don't, just write that code yourself.
> It's a hard ecosystem to bootstrap yourself into.
So is cross-platform game programming and there are hundreds of different engines, toolkits, SDKs, editors and other utilities spread across a dozen different languages. Which one should you choose? I don't know it's all too confusing, they should just stop making new tools so I can catch up.