India unveils $2.5B plan to electrify all households by end 2018
in.reuters.com
in.reuters.com
I've also spent several years in tier two cities, where 8-10 hour power cuts are part of normal life and smaller towns where a failure can cause week-long power cut. I know with surety that large parts of the National Capital Region (NCR) have massive power cuts. Housing societies and businesses run large diesel generators charging 3-4x the normal rate and causing immense pollution.
This is only half the story, the story of low power supply. Then there is power theft. I don't have exact figures but when I used to go to the billing office for paying our meager bill of a few hundred rupees, I saw pending bills of hundred of thousands rupees. People hadn't paid their bills for decades. Occasionally there would be raids and the defaulters' power would be disconnected, then they would hook up to the power lines illegally for some time and then get the connections back under some amnesty scheme.
It remains to be seen where the power to 'electrify' all households come from and who'll actually foot the bill for the 'free' connections and the lifetime free electricity.
Soo.... The article suggests that there are roughly 4x40 million = 160 million households in the country, and 1.3 billion people. Divide the one by the other and you get an estimate for the household size of roughly 10 people. That seems rather larger to me, also given the fact that large IT cities like Bangalore are growing like crazy - all with one or two people in an appartment, not 10.
Next, getting 40 million households hooked up to the electricity network for 2.5 billion dollar. Dividing again gives 2500 dollar per 40 households or 60 dollar per house. While labor is cheap in India - this is not going to work.
And indeed: 40 million more housholds (or 300 million more Indians with access to electricity) is not going to do the networks much good...
It is strange that voltage drops in the night. Go figure, I thought in the night there is usually overgeneration.
This is a huge problem even now
Where I used to live (in Europe) this sometimes happened , which resulted in power outages, not damage due to safety precautions like sure protectors. But they fixed it when the windmills came along which are quite variable in power delivery and apparently upgraded the net to compensate for this. Haven't had a lot of outages since (changed from about 4-6 times a year to once every 4-6 years).
It sounds like a cheap political hit to me. Just give everyone power and they can say 'we did it' but since it is barely usable nothing has changed.
edit: clarifications
In summer. Bangalore sees 2 - 4 hours of rolling power cuts due to shortage. Your friend needs to supply his secret power surplus into the grid for the benefit of all of us.
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.cxb.powera...
Right. I'm talking about how there can be an average surplus and also a peak shortage at the same time.
Articles talking about "power surplus" can't seem to decide if they mean average or peak, and I can't find an official definition of the term.
Most people are confusing “power surplus” by countering with “but I still see power cuts”.
Distribution and how a state manages demand and supply also is a huge reason as to how and why power cuts happen.
Only recently did all of India get connected to the national grid.
Once distribution capacity is up, then it is possible to have 24x7 uninterrupted power. Even then, a state’s ability to manage the demand and supply can mean power cuts (e.g., Enron blacking out California even though rest of the equation was all set)
Just to nitpick, I don't believe they are called that. Inverters are devices that convert direct current to alternate current. They don't provide power. They just convert the power supplied by batteries to a usable format.
(In most countries you can see a little bit of a frequency dip at times of high demand. It also has the effect of reducing the power draw by synchronous AC motors.)
The frequency is currently 50.034Hz, at some point it will be below 50Hz to keep the average at 50Hz.
When the frequency drops below 50Hz, it suggests that demand is outpacing supply, and vice-versa when the frequency is above 50Hz.
Grid voltage can vary due to your location and all sorts of factors, but frequency is, of course, always synchronised wherever you are.
National Grid pays a lot of money for "frequency response" to ensure the grid remains balanced. Traditionally this was provided largely by coal spinning reserve. But as most coal-fired plants have now closed, it's now provided by diesel farms (yuck!) and increasingly, battery storage.
http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/services/balancing-services/...
As a former Transmission System Operator I can tell you the most likely scenario you see this is when generation trips offline (demand exceeds supply for a short time).
I've sat in an Arizona control room, 1700MW of NW hydro would trip offline and we'd see a massive drop in interconnect frequency.
In the US frequency response is mostly Nat Gas powered. There are new projects that are battery based, but another way to achieve this is on the demand side, by requesting non critical loads to turn off or throttle themselves when the frequency drops too low. I think this is being done at an industrial scale (i.e aluminium smelters) but it is possible on the domestic scale also with EVs electric tank water heaters, etc.
Going forward, given the intermittency of renewable energy, these methods (primarily storage) will be more important as the energy supply becomes more variable.
I'm not sure about other utility companies, but when I was a TSO we never did this. For the most part, AGC worked fine to maintain frequency.
General Topic: http://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_rep... http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0196890416...
HVAC Demand/Response: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7407597/?reload=true
Aluminum Smelter Demand Response: http://repository.cmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1836&c...
> "Autonomous Demand Response for frequency regulation is real..."
I wasn't saying that ADR wasn't "real," just that it's not something we're currently doing for frequency control in actual practice...and of course that might change as engineers continue researching and pushing the field further. It definitely looks like ADR solutions are on the horizon though.
> It remains to be seen where the power to 'electrify' all households come from and who'll actually foot the bill for the 'free' connections and the lifetime free electricity.'
I don't think the later part of this statement is true, govt is only providing free connection not free electricity.
Also, India is 3rd largest producer of power after China and USA, however it stands 105 when it comes to per capita consumption. The problem in India is not power supply, its the transmission, India hasn't invested much on transmission lines, as a result its paying the price now.
How do you spread non-existent electricity uniformly to all parts of India. Last time I checked 0/anything is 0. Unless you are saying the prime minister has found a way to defeat laws of mathematics or can magically pull out energy out of thin air.
Frankly speaking I wouldn't be surprised if you believe in this too. Given how much this government is about Marketing.
>>so the scheme is about giving them an electricity connection.
The scheme is nothing. They announce these schemes every few years and then junk them, because of the infeasibility of executing projects of this scale.
>>The problem in India is not power supply, its the transmission.
Its more on the generation part. Rolling power cuts are common during summer even in cities.
I don't know what part of the infrastructure is to blame in India, but rolling power cuts can be caused by all parts, not just a lack on the generator side.
Without a sufficient transmission infrastructure, it doesn't matter if the generators even provides 100% of the required energy, some of it will go to waste (or at best: they run at fractional load) and you will still see blackouts simply because the generated energy isn't ending up where it's needed.
The thing is, this govt came to power in all but 4 Indian states and it has just destroyed the economy. The GDP rate has skid down to 4% just as the previous PM, Dr Manmohan Singh said it would and at that time, everyone mocked him.
Guess who is laughing now?
The current govt has failed absolutely at every way, the Demonetization exercise was a total and epic disaster and it shocked the economy without fulfilling it's motive of "war on black money" as 99% of the invalid notes were returned to the RBI.
But that's not the only problem, the problem is, this govt takes decisions just to win elections. DeMo happened just before UP elections after the "surgical strike" lost it's glitter in the media.
Even the most ardent supporters of the current govt are asking the question, if the earlier govt was able to keep the GDP growth rate above 7 in horrible world economic condition, why is the current govt unable to do so even when the crude oil prices are half of what it was earlier?
Edit: Oh right, thanks for the reminder. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swachh_Bharat_Abhiyan#Histor...
[0]: http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=109988
http://www.jantakareporter.com/india/durbhagya-saubhagya-yoj...
http://www.jantakareporter.com/india/repackaged-previous-upa...
petrol will be 150Rs per liter and the finance min will say "people who use cars aren't starving" GDP growth will be down to 2% but "we don't want to vote congress in power!"
/s
> petrol will be 150Rs per liter and the finance min will say "people who use cars aren't starving" GDP growth will be down to 2% but "we don't want to vote congress in power!"
> /s dude your all comments were like politicians. What good congress did other than bringing shame to country. Rahul Gandhi, Sonia gandhi are these your bets for nation ??
The GDP growth rate has been low from 2012 to 2014[1]. And anything a former prime minister tells about the opposition party, I would take with a pinch of salt.
Also, the power ministry has done a great job over the last few years. They distributed LED bulbs across the country which reduced power consumption http://www.ujala.gov.in/
They might have made mistakes, but I would choose this govt over the corrupt congress any day.
1:http://statisticstimes.com/economy/gdp-growth-of-india.php
I shudder to think what his brand of Jumla economics will do if they face problems in the next two years. It is clear that they have next to 0 understanding of anything other than giving speeches and 'inaugurating' things which were actually built by congress.
I'll settle for RaGa as PM but not a party which takes decisions just for winning elections. and FYI all the LED/Solar schemes were started by Congress, he has just changed names, like 19/28 schemes or something like that.
and not to mention the utter hypocrisy and the contempt they use to address the middle class.
during UPA time the crude oil prices were 150$ per barrel and petrol was 70Rs per liter, not the crude oil prices are 50$ barrel and still prices of petrol are going up.
and at the same time they are wanting that India becomes a manufacturing hub.
I wonder which school they went to, or if they even went to a school for clearly they don't realize that manufacturing industry works on petrol, everything runs on petrol and petrol isn't used by "people are aren't starving like the car and bike owners"
The MLA aren't starving either, why don't they give up their subsidies?
BJP is doing exactly all the things that they opposed when they were in opposition, rise in LPG price, petrol etal.
petrol diesel ki pad rahi hai maar, nahi chaiye BJP sarkar
Please keep idiotic comments like this outside HN
With all due respect, If you or others can't understand the obvious sarcasm then that's on you, not me.
I accept my mistakes when people aren't a condescending and especially not those who are too stupid to understand satire and if I am talking to stupid people then I ought to write stupid comments, for they don't even understand satire then what else can I hope to write which they understand?
And yes, this "stupid" discussion is over.
A former prime minister who was a distinguished professor of economics at top universities. Has served at the seats of world's top financial institutions and councils. And led the leadership in multiple tenures of Indias central bank. Plus being the finance minister and responsible for drafting and implementing Indias most succesful open market policy ever. This is all mildly putting his career highlights.
How quickly we forget the whole concept of expertise.
These days you go and see experts even in case of a throat itch. Here, we are talking of redoing the entire country's monetary system.
Should I believe them or you.
I have not really done any elaboration here. I would just link you to https://www.google.com/search?q=how+india%27s+demonetization.... I can answer follow up questions if any (or hopefully others might pitch in whether disagree or agree). I am assuming you are not from the place. I am not into finance and economics so I will try my best. I have one foot in an Indian metro and another in a village near a small town and I travel extensively during that time (in fact I happened to backpack across a fair portion of the country for 2 months during that period).
And yeah, a lot of initial tech coverage just limited themselves to the failed online transactions (and similar issues in the cities) and completely ignored what was happening to the rural people and people in the small towns where most of India lives and does business. It was far far far worse.
I never said it does and I never said that demonetization was successful. I was just replying with first hand experience that impact of demonetization was not too bad for the people from what I saw and that the google will show what you want it to show.
>It's insane that even educated people don't accept the truth and get carried away by emotional rhetoric
What made you think that I got carried away by emotional rhetoric?
Refusing to accept or understand failure means that there is something else that makes you argue for it even when there are explicit results for everyone to see. Also it was not directed at you personally, rather at anyone who supports this decision still.
Again, the amount of impact it has caused is there for everyone to see. The numbers are out. Arguing anymore about this is like arguing with flat earth society. Let's not downplay the Poor's suffering.
That's your opinion. Two people have already mentioned that what they saw is inconsistent with what you claim everyone can see.
Do you have a personal anecdote to share that describes your experience? If yes, do so.
Do you have substantive evidence that your experience has been the experience of the majority? If yes, cite such statistics from trusted sources.
The thing which is currently confusing and causing slowdown is GST implementation. Most businesses don't know what to do. This is to be expected. Feels like the govt wasn't fully ready with a streamlined implementation.
Describe your experience anecdotally or provide citations when you make broad claims about the country's experience, and speak substantially in both cases.
I understand that India is a developing country so growth should be faster but 6% is not that bad.
This is on the backs of a ridiculous plan to demonitize cash, in a cash based economy.
We saw an immediately slow down when GST hit. Certain sectors were entirely dead - real estate - for a while.
It’s been nearly 6 months, and the pain in the informal sector is now whip lashing its way into the formal economy.
Indians are born children - you are not taking toys away to make them behave.
Sorry for your loss pal. Lets hope things look up soon.
1. Promises Promises: The PM unveiled the scheme abruptly (no woes here), promising people discomfort for a week... Then two weeks... Then a month... And then literally six months. You can see how things slipped out of controls as the initial "discomfort deadline" was a mere week.
2. Impeccable Planning: The new Rs 2000 note was not made to-size with the current ATM standards. As a result, the entire nation's ATM machines had to be modified. That is so big a blunder, it felt like I was reading The Onion when I read that one.
3. The Verdict: This one was the real eye opener. I was sympathetic to the entire humdrum, the months of inconvenience caused to everyone. (Full disclosure, I was not in India during the time. IMO, I can still have an opinion on the matter). But if it really did solve some parts of the black money problem, some good would have come out of it. In the annual RBI report, it was mentioned that ~99% of the currency flowing in the form of Rs 500, Rs 1000 notes was returned back to the banks. This implies that 99% of the currency is now legal, white money. That less than 1% of the currency was unaccounted for, and that's the money gained by the RBI since those notes are now rendered invalid. Source: http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/only-12-of-demoneti...
In this light then, I can't help but think of the entire process to be shaky.
Edit: The link was an AMP link. Sorry about that.
Now they may have underestimated the logistical issues to verify how much currency was returned.
Communities/businesses who had good credit networks survived/weren't affected, those who didn't suffered.
Fair Point.
it wasn't done to help poor people. it was a ploy to win elections in UP and a successful one at that.
Small towns are towns like Barmer, Dausa, etc.
Remember: nearly 70% of India lives in rural areas. Your "small town" of half a million doesn't reflect the reality of these 900M people at all.
But I agree on the bias part I should have just suggested to search "India + demonetisation" and only suggested to play with the search terms as in adding words like "effects", advantages, disadvantages etc.
> Jammu
And the villages and towns I am talking about (esp. in the hinterland and the North East) are something entirely else if I consider Jammu a small town (I say this relatively)
You were lucky!
They mention a parable about a crocodile, where things will eventually re-adjust to favor the black market just as much as before, and these policies are just an inconvenience.... I'm not sure I understand how that would work, if transactions really do start to shift online.
It seems to me that at the very least these policies will shift things in the right direction? Or is that an incorrect interpretation of the situation?
Is it more a case of botched roll out of policies that are essentially positive for india, or is it just a political maneuver that won't change anything?
- India is a cash based economy. Most people, apart from the few doctors, lawyers, engineers etcz, are paid in cash and in turn pay for everything in cash.
- Since many businesses operate entirely in cash, revenue figures and tax payments are entirely self reported. The govt sees less tax receipts than it thinks it should.
- in November 2016 the govt decided that all high value notes were no longer legal tender and had to be returned to banks. The idea at the time being that businessmen who had hoarded mountains of cash would be forced to let their wealth disappear or deposit it and explain their sources of income. Also, people indulging in illegal activities such as politicians accepting bribes would be forced to throw the money away
- That's not what happened.
- As I said, the economy is cash based. With everyone's cash invalidated and the ATMs requiring retooling before they could work with the new notes, the economy ground to a halt. People stopped making purchases they otherwise would have, both large and small. They bought fewer TVs and washing machines, and also fewer cigarettes, fewer meals at restaurants, fewer clothes, fewer vacations. Every single sector saw their revenues fall, and a lot of people, mostly rural, lost their jobs. Farmers at the time were selling their produce for less than a tenth of what they did previously because they were desperate for money. So yes, GDP took a hit. But it's cool because the govt fudged the figures and made it appear better than it actually was.
- The real kicker however, is that the people with mountains of cash figured out ways to move that money into their accounts without raising any eyebrows. Brokers that did this merely took a 10-15% cut, rather than the 30-45% cut the govt hoped to take. 99% of notes were returned, hardly the success the govt hoped for.
- Later they changed the goalposts, claiming that the goal of this exercise was to promote digital payments, not catch the tax dodgers. Hogwash.
So to recap
1. Govt comes up with stupid scheme.
2. Implements it poorly when replacement notes are not available.
3. Scheme fails, innocent people are hurt, jobs are lost, growth grinds to a halt.
4. Govt shifts goalposts and claims victory.
Sources
1. The high economic costs of India's demonetization - https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/2171384...
2. Growth remains sluggish a year later - http://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/indicators/most-accu...
The productivity loss was immense and somehow no one seems to care about it.
Isn't this a victory? The money is in the system now, can't it be tracked better?
Just to play Modi's advocate for a second, I think replacing all indirect taxes with one indirect tax will benefit Indian businesses in the long run. Although it will be painful for now, especially for corner cases the govt hasn't thought about (exporters having to pay tax and getting a refund months later) it will get better with time. I predict that the software will improve to the point that filing the tax will become more or less automated. India is taking the hit to growth today to reap the benefit of tax simplification 2+ years from now.
As for demonetization, I doubt even Modi's mother could spin that positively. It was a disaster, no doubt. Perhaps the tiny silver lining that was completely unintended is that most urban merchants accept digital payments now.
long:
I am not saying that electrification scheme is wrong. I am merely pointing out that there have been too many coincidences.
1. surgical strike happened just a few months before UP elections 2. when surgical strike's glory failed, DeMo happened just a few months before UP election 3. in the first 2 months of DeMo 80% notes were returned, RBI counted 80% notes within 2months but they took 8months to calculate the rest of the notes? 4. RBI report came at the backdrop of the worst floods Mumbai faced since 2006.
I am not mistaken about anything, my good sir. I am saying that this govt doesn't do work and it hides it's failures strategically so that people have something else to talk about.
Remember the jibe "hard work is more important than harvard"? Our great PM dissolved the economic advisory committee which UPA had in place.
now he has reinstated the committee and he announced that during his 2.5Billion $ scheme (which was already present with a deadline of 2018) so that people will talk about electrification but not his utter failure to save the economy.
He has failed the country and the GDP is ruined despite good economic conditions and all they are doing is hiding their laundry under the guises of promotions and even more promises.
and I had said way back during the general elections (to my clg friends) that it would take 3hrs for bhakts to realize how wrong they were and now almost everyone have opened their eyes!
In fact, I’d rather have a leader who acknowledges and fixes their mistakes than one who never makes any.
Man who can't stand for himself, is he going to lead us !
This is far from universally accepted. If anything, as countries modernise and their institutions develop, the trend appears to lean towards the state not doing this.
I am happy that our govt controls electricity, roads, railway because if they don't then such things will be run for profit and there will be lobbying which is never good for a democracy.
That was exactly the point. The fact that 99% of notes were returned indicates that demonetization was a success.
The whole idea was to stop large cash transactions from occurring in secrecy where they cannot be taxed.
Any economic problems resulting from demonetization are short-term. In the long run, moving to electronic transactions will be of great benefit to India.
1% is the "destroyed black money"
If this was the case then BJP is a big damn liar as they kept claiming that congress did scams well, if there is only 1% black money Congress is full of saints.
Been a while since I last heard that word. :)
GST everybody wanted it, but because everyone wants credit for it, no-one was letting it pass.
This whole tax system is changing, few problems are going to come.
What's wrong with using it as political agenda, rulers(so-called democracy) do this everytime. Atleast so far better than congress nation wide corruption.
He has marketed India well around the world, people talk about India. He is talking tough stands, don't know who you think is better one to rule. Congress, third-front( maya, lalu, nitish). I think he the best option we have.
If you think we've some better option, do enlighten me. Will be happy to hear your opinion.
Providing off-grid solar electricity to remote locations is the right way to go. But that is only part of the equation, one has to ensure regular maintenance and battery replacement, especially since these areas will have adverse conditions. It is like the swachh bharat mission, toilets were built for sanitation in villages but they were useless since they didn't have water. Sadly no one gives a thought to this in India, things are built and are useless or they wither in short time due to lack of maintenance.
This is another propaganda BS by the government. BJP will have to upgrade their techniques, otherwise the mountain of propaganda that they have built will cave in on themselves.
It has already started.
The article notes the perfect application of solar plus battery; places with no utility connection and the only initial loads will be LED lights and the users will not be accustomed to toasters, air conditioning, etc
"The pledge to provide power could face challenges as it remains difficult to provide electricity in remote towns and villages. The government said it would distribute solar power packs with a battery bank to un-electrified households in such areas."
Batteries plus solar to run some led lights where there is no utility makes perfect sense though.
The population who are not having electricity in India is either because they live in a remote place where there is no connection or they are too poor to afford electricity. So what they need now is electricity, so their children can study in a better lit room.
Air conditioners and toasters are still considered a luxury by a majority of the population.
If executed properly, I think this initiative will really make a change.
http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2015/02/17/38687611...
I'd at least want to price out providing some villages with free solar power rather than a grid connection.
A social workers job in India is pretty much just going around and helping people fill out the correct forms. In many rural area there are people who sit outside of banks who's soul job is to fill out forms for those who cannot read or write.
One of the big challenges will just be telling people that they have access to such a scheme and helping them fill out the correct forms to access it.
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Rural_Employment_Guar...
All this move guarantees is that the people who never officially had a power connection get one. This might well be a marketing scheme, but as long as they deliver, we are good. It's kinda ridiculous that a Prime Minister i 2017 have to make a plan to get everyone power. How difficult was this for the previous govt?
Torrent Power has completed its acquisition of the Ahmedabad Electricity Company in 1997 [1]. And since then there hasn't been single power cut longer than 15 minutes which I can remember. Same goes for Surat now.
Regarding providing free electricity - this can be a good thing as long as the electricity consumption is free up to an amount limited by the size of the house and household. This is very susceptible to abuse.
http://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/piyush-goyal-assu...
September 2017: Government announces grand new scheme to ensure electricity for all by 2018!!
Talk about shifting goal posts.
The bullet train which is a loan from Japan for 50 years at 0.1% additionally permitting Japan in on Indians infra development.
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/On-paper-electrified-v...
Kerala model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerala_model
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/kerala-is-now-t...
About Kerala: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerala
Sadly, the ruling government is more of a self-marketing machine than a provider for growth, economically or otherwise. On the ground changes are few and far in between. The focus is more on providing positive spins on disastrous decisions and a society degenerating to medieval levels in some parts of the country (diseases that are exterminated in most of the world, extreme poverty, agriculture purely dependent on monsoons which are themselves flaky, religious atrocities).
As long as the 2019 elections are won (which is the only thing that matters) the ruling government will feel the $2.5B spent is worthwhile even if a single house does not get electricity (and then expect a positive spin saying we have the electrical capacity, and what we promised was to prove that we have the capacity, not actually provide everyone electricity)
(Sadly, even HN has it's set of right wing trolls, so expecting some pro-Modi comments, or more whataboutery on this comment as well!)
Edit: And here we go with the shifting goalposts again: https://twitter.com/AisiTaisiDemo/status/912542412882374657
This is accurate. I am not talking about the figure. I think more money would be required for the ad campaigns and few "pilot" projects or releases for the follow up ad campaigns.
I am talking about madmax108 being accurate in stating the sole intention of the Govt and how things have been done here before this Govt and how this Govt has acted in last 3 years and how they are indicating they will act.