Apple Obliterates Q3 Earnings Estimates: Best Mac Sales Ever, Huge iPad Numbers | Hacker News Reader

Apple Obliterates Q3 Earnings Estimates: Best Mac Sales Ever, Huge iPad Numbers

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>iTunes store rev exceeded $1 billion.

For that quarter? Wow, if they keep that up for a year, they'll essentially match revenue of physical music sales[1].

Remind me... why did the music industry think no-DRM would tank them?

[1] 2008-2009 US shipment numbers: http://www.riaa.com/keystatistics.php?content_selector=2008-...

I think that includes app store numbers... but yeah, still impressive

Ah, very good point. I don't know if they differentiate... looking at it again with that in mind, I doubt it.

And movies & TV shows.

It's amazing that the iPad's first full quarter sales nearly matches the entire mac lineup's best quarter all time.

(In terms of number of units)

Well, the iPad number is impressive, but they cost a whole lot less than Macs.

Except the mini

The mini's recent refresh made its base cost $699, actually.

They do cost a whole lot less, but I wonder how much the cost to make. In other words, what is the profit margin on each one?

Well the article said that Apple had a slightly smaller profit margin than that of previous years and they blamed that on the iPad. So it seems that the iPad profit margin is smaller than that of the Macs and iPhone.

Yes, and it is also a new type of product. Macs (and PCs) have been around for decades.

Are you saying it should have been easier or harder for Apple to move this many units?

I imagine steve19 is saying it should be easier to move iPads than Mac computers. People already have computers in the traditional sense and are generally happy with them; there isn't a pressing need to upgrade more than every few years. In contrast with this is the iPad, a brand new product that people can purchase on an impulse (due to its lower-than-a-computer price) and show off to friends.

Listen to the Earnings Call Here: http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq310/

They stated the NC datacenter will be completed and operating by the end of the year. Streaming iTunes could be announced before we know it.

I found the "halo" effect they described particularly interesting. Data has shown, customers buying an iPhone as their first apple product come back and buy more Apple products. They are now seeing this trend in the iPad as well...

Furthermore, they can't make the iphone4/ipad fast enough. The demand streams are simply insane and unlike any other products available today.

</fanboy>

They should call it the all-my-shit-is-locked-into-iTunes effect.

Which shit would that be? Video? That's a pretty small part of iTunes overall revenue... And even that plays just fine on Windows computers.

Are you also one of those people who believes iPods can only play music purchased from the iTunes store?

But the reverse is true. If you bought music from iTunes you can't play it elsewhere.

Since iTunes are a convenient way to purchase music, some of us ended up with large quantities of music tied to Apple's devices.

You know, I can't remember the last time I bought a DRM track from iTunes, and trust me, I buy a lot of tracks on iTunes.

Both the Wii and DSi can play the format iTunes currently uses. I think the PSP and PS3 can as well. I’m also pretty sure Archos and a couple other of the high end media players also work with AAC. AFAIK, only the low end stuff, like SanDisk’s fare, are still using silicon tied to MP3/WMA.

Isn't AAC an open standard?

Yes, although the silicon was slow coming. For a while, the iPod was the only game in town. The few other devices that used AAC at the time (like a Sony 8cm CD player I used to use) used the older MP3 style container instead of the modern MOV/M4A wrapper.

All the iTunes tracks I've bought this year are unprotected.

I wonder whether Apples ability make the solutions they do and have the success that they have is based on the fact that they have more or less total vertical integration.

We know they have the best ecosystem out there, but there must be other things too.

It does show one thing though.

Google still have a lot to learn outside of advertising. In fact I believe google will fail building any serious kind of business around their mobile attempts.

http://techcrunch.com/2010/07/15/android-costs/

tl;dr the point of Android is so Google can put their ads on it.

To that extend it is already a success given that google mobile ads were banned on the iphone and probably will be too on BB and windows mobile and that android phones are already outselling the iphones (all together, which is all that matters to Google).

Anything as big as android has more than one purpose.

Google is not competing with Apple on devices. Google is more interested in an ecosystem where they won't be at the mercy of other companies. Imagine a vibrant, rapidly expanding mobile internet devices and google doesn't have any footprint on it. They would have to rely on Apple and other smart phone manufacturer not screwing with them, literally being at their mercy.

With Android, this is not the case anymore. Even if Apple decides to screw with Google and provides Bing as default choice for all their products across the board, they have other options.

61% year-over-year revenue growth: simply astounding.

And for that the stock is up 3% after hours.

I can't tell if you're being snarky or not. Keep in mind that expectations of future earnings are already priced into the stock, so the 3% gain you're seeing is for the earnings ABOVE expectations/estimates.

Other factors, including uncertainty over antennagate, will also keep the stock from making a huge jump.

It's more that Apple's stock behaves in completely irrational ways; typically, news which would cause any other company's stock to skyrocket instead causes Apple's to plummet. In the past, "analysts" such as Jim Cramer have admitted to deliberately manipulating the market to produce this effect, which may provide some explanation, but there seems to be a consistent trend of underestimating/undervaluing Apple regardless of how many consecutive quarters of stellar performance they crank out.

It's not irrational. The traders essentially control the stock market and call the shots by manipulating the market into a favorable position then sell the stock. A glut of shares appearing on the market would thus drive the price down. The term is called "profit taking".

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/profittaking.asp

According to your conspiracy theory, the price is sometimes artificially low and sometimes artificially high. Why haven't you made a profit by short selling? Why wouldn't a competing company?

Really? You think you know when the market is being irrational? Can I ask how much money you've made trading your knowledge so far? I assume you're invested in Apple, since you know that the market consistently underestimates them.

Philip Elmer-Dewitt of Fortune (if you'd like some reading on the subject) does a rather amusing quarterly piece in which he compares analyst predictions of Apple's performance with observed reality. If it happened once or twice, that would be understandable; such predictions are complex and difficult to make. But the track record is so consistently and so universally bad that I find it difficult to believe there's a truly rational process behind it; sooner or later, folks should be noticing the disparity between prediction and reality and trying to fix their process.

Apple's stock price seems to behave similarly; if any company not named "Apple, Inc." announces a new product which receives good reviews, generates high pre-sale demand and looks to have a high profit margin, that company's stock price quite predictably rises. But if the company happens to be named "Apple, Inc." the stock price almost invariably drops (go look at charts for AAPL on and around the days of major product announcements and launches). Perhaps you're aware of some deep principle which explains why this is rational behavior on the part of investors and traders, but I certainly am not.

Um, if a person claims that the market itself is behaving irrationally then how why would you expect that they could prove it by making money on said market?

You know what's interesting about the stock market? If everyone else is wrong and you're right: you lose.

Which means that the smart people already figured it out and it was mostly priced into the stock already.

Remember, the stock price is at least as smart as the smartest investors trading it.

In all seriousness, and meaning this not at all as an insult, I recommend never investing in anything stock-market-related except index funds until it stops seeming intuitive to you that the stock ought to jump on the same day that news like this is publicly summarized and announced.

You have a pretty different view on the stock market than I do. The only "smart" people I see involved in the whole thing, as far as I can tell, are the ones writing algorithms that try to guess what the crowd is going to do (usually by looking at what they've previously done).

(disclaimer: I work in the financial industry)

I find it more astounding how no one can do the same.

Is everyone else really that bad? Or is Apple just that good?

For a company that size, 60% growth is amazing.

Noone else has a guy at the helm of the ship that's a worldclass salesman, a true visionary, an amazing product guy and a detail obsessed perfectionist all rolled into one.

It isn't just the ratio of growth, it is also the scale. 60% growth in a multibillion dollar company is much harder than going from 100k to 160k in revenue.

I wonder when was the last time any professional analyst overestimated Apple's upcoming quarterly earnings.

Over a billion dollars of profit per month. Holy crap.

I wonder when Apple will take a higher share in the enterprise market, i.e. when the "halo effect" from use of iphones, later maybe ipads, in big corp.s will lead to increased use of macs/os x there too. if it happens, i.e. when os x reaches a certain threshold of trust or viability in enterprise systems, it will probably be something that happens quite fast. in a sense, there'll be a network or lemming effect where you'd just need one big firm to switch to make it "acceptable" for other "orifices" to do so too.

iPad's (at least in my office Fortune500) are very much the new must have tech executive toy. Toy is probably the wrong word as they are carried everywhere to every meeting.

This is interesting - do you think a RIM or HP (Palm) tablet would make the same in-roads if the functionality/aesthetics were good enough? Is the iPad a social marker or is it filling a functional need?

I suspect it isn't 'trust' that's holding OSX back in the enterprise world, but the software available (or lack thereof). If so, then it can't be a fast change.

And without stimulus money.

I wonder if the various pundits predicting the end of the Mac line are taking note of this.

That the Mac, which has a huge product line and a much more complicated OS and so is harder to develop and support for than the iOS machines, is only just barely outselling the brand-new rev 1 iPad?

Yeah, I think they're taking note of this.

>...and so is harder to develop and support for than the iOS machines...

Harder to develop because you can use the programming language and runtime of your choosing, including the exact same APIs that are on iOS, or harder because you don't have to cross-compile your app for an embedded platform and test it on a remote machine whose internals you aren't allowed to change or inspect? Maybe you meant harder because there's no convoluted chain of constantly-expiring certificates needed for testing and deployment, or because you have far more RAM, disk space, screen space, and CPU cycles available, or because you can run as root or even in kernel mode to extend the OS in ways that Apple hadn't imagined instead of playing along as their dancing promotional puppet app, which they can kick to the curb on a whim?

Or maybe you meant it's harder to support because users have to drag an icon (which they received from a web site in a single click) into their applications folder, instead of thumbing through 200 seemingly-identical app listings with terse descriptions and then fumbling to enter the same iTunes account password for the 90th time, re-agreeing to yet another slightly different revision of a 28-page-long terms of service and then going back and entering the same iTunes account password because iOS forgot you were actually downloading an app?

Ah, of course, now I see what you mean.

Even if iOS devices completely eclipse the Mac lineup, it can stay around as a profitable business for quite a while:

All the big new features in Mac OS X recently have been driven by or also developed for iOS (Core Animation, OpenCL, GCD, Exchange support, etc.), so clearly it won't cost Apple much to maintain Mac OS X. The desktops and laptops have been a fairly slow-moving target lately, and particularly for the laptops they haven't been doing much in the way of revolutionary hardware design since introducing the unibody enclosures. Apple's relatively high profit margins also mean that sales can fall to a very low level before a product line becomes unprofitable. When you also consider how much easier it is to maintain Mac OS X as an iOS development platform than to make Windows a good development platform (due to the strong similarities between iOS and Mac OS X and Apple's control over both), and when you consider that Apple doesn't have any trouble attracting iOS developers in spite of the Mac-only development tools, it's pretty clear that the Mac can keep making Apple money, even if they don't put much work in to it.

No you don't. Harder to develop and support for Apple is what I mean.

the mac and OSX will die when Steve's happy to see his engineers using Windows to develop iOS

They seem to be opening lots of Apple stores here (UK, South East).

For the savvy traders here on HN: would you buy AAPL right now? Did/does this report change your mind?

I'm not a trader, but it seems to me that the whole "antennagate" thing had a disproportionate effect on the share price. They compare it to MS Vista, or Toyota's brake problems.

It's a one-off engineering flaw. Vista flopped because XP is good enough for looking at LolCatz, and it lacked tangible innovations - a sign that Microsoft's ability to bring innovative products to market has gotten congested. Toyota's brake problems puts people in fear of their lives.

When Apple lost 5% market cap, it was obvious that people were panicking. They could easily afford free bumpers, and a free upgrade to affected customers when the next iPhone comes out, for the price of the downgrades they were getting. If they don't hand out free stuff, it's because they have an even better option - to point out that all phones have reception issues, and maybe then blame AT&T.

Definitely don't buy now. Buy when no one is thinking about apple - i.e. when it's not in the news (or at least when the news is bad).

Which won't happen in the next 5 years.

(just so someone can come back and quote at one of us in 6 months...) Now seems like a reasonable time looking at the fundamentals and ignoring the antenna issue.

How do you know that Apple won't gain even more share and profits than anticipated next year? Shouldn't you be short selling instead?

I think you're falling to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposition_effect

I'm impressed and a little worried... how will they keep up? Sure there have been some major hiccups - but, great, appealing products and vision easily compensated for that.

Somewhat interesting in light of http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2010/07/iphone-...

Wonder what new products they are talking about. mac pro refresh ? apple tv ? ipad with retina display ?

Magic Bluetooth Trackpad, New iPod Touch with FaceTime, new Apple TV, new iLife and iWork software, and perhaps one other thing no one's expecting.

I suspect there will be a new iPod Nano device before Christmas. A new Touch seems very likely.

iPad Nano!

Same as the iPad, but in a small convenient package that fits in your pocket.

An iPad Nano may be quite unlikely in 2010, but the possibility is real, according to a recent Digitimes rumor [1]:

The sources noted that Apple has recently placed new iPad orders to Taiwan-based component makers for the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011 with 9.7-inch, 5.6-inch and 7-inch models all included.

Admittedly, the same report notes that supply of OLED screens is limited, and may not ease until the second half of 2011.

[1] http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20100713PD207.html

iPad Nano? Isn't that already available? (iPod touch / iPhone)

Yes, that was the joke.

Apparently it was either not funny enough or not obvious enough.

I voted you up, but jokes are usually off topic on hacker news and get voted down pretty quickly no matter how funny.

My money's on a Nano/Shuffle hybrid. The small form factor of the Shuffle with a tiny touch screen (~1.25") and ultra-simple UI @ ~$79.

Apple has released a new iPod nano in September every year for the last five years, and a new iPod touch in September every year for the last three years.

Predicting new iPods before Christmas seems like a safe bet.

Don't forget the new data center. It's supposed to be operational by the end of the year.

Some cloud thingy is coming.

Personally, I can't wait for the Magic Trackpad.

I’d be happy if the new data center just made Mobile Me work like it should.

For free?

Apple TV with FaceTime would be neat.

And karaoke!

Probably MobileMe and iWork.com. The new version of iDisk on the iPhone streams music. I'm guessing second half of 2010 will be a big cloud push.

If apple puts that display on their macbooks, i will be first in line,

They will not; OS X is not fully resolution independent yet.

You can right now buy MacBook Pro 15" with 1680x1050 display or MBP 17" with 1920x1080 display. The pixel size on those displays is pretty darn tiny; I doubt higher pixel density makes sense on laptop due to further viewing distance (compared to iPhone).

About new products: I would love to see 15" version of MacBook Air, or slimmed down MacBook 15" without optical drive, brand it whatever. Dear Steve, get rid of optical drives, please.

Did they break out the iPod numbers? That had a decline. I'd like to know if that was due specifically to the non-Touch iPod. And if Touch sales actually went up when broken out.

iPod sales down slightly, but iPod Touch up 48% year-over-year. Source: http://www.macrumors.com/2010/07/20/apple-reports-profit-of-...

This isn't the quarter to watch. Next quarter should be interesting to see if "antennagate" ruptures the Apple containment field.

Can anyone tell me why this matters? In the context of "hacker" "news", I mean.

Apple is creating a market around the iPhone and iPad, and therefore changing the industry of computation, which will change the way startups (NB: this place used to be called Startup News) and hackers prioritize activities for the next few years at least.

Why do you think it doesn't matter?

And how does Apple's revenue apply to that exactly? Why does it need to be posted to HN every quarter and make top story? Everyone knows they're doing well. No one but the fanboys and shareholders care about their actual revenue/profits.

Q: Why does it need to be posted to HN every quarter and make top story?

A: Why does it need to be posted to HN [by HN users] every quarter and make top story [because HN users have voted it up]?

The community (which is why the site exists) hath spoken!

No. This conception of "the democracy makes the rules" is what turns sites into inane cat-picture/political-argument factories. Tiny democracies can work as closed systems, but when they're open to people entering/leaving them, every change will precipitate a change in membership to realign the community's interests with the change. This causes a positive feedback loop, where eventually, for example, nobody is left except Apple addicts.

Sites have purposes (otherwise, there would only need to be one website on the Internet, that served everyone's needs equally.) Letting the community decide both what, and who, the community is to be composed of, leads inevitably to every community being composed of "everyone," and having a purpose of "general interest." I, for one, would rather have a place that just has "Hacker News."

> I, for one, would rather have a place that just has "Hacker News."

Amen, brother.

You say this, yet the submitter has been here over 1000 days, and over 100 longer than you. Evidently at least some of the long-timers, from when this was a much more closed environment, do indeed see this as interesting news.

So the question becomes: what's the definition of "hacker news", if not a user-submitted aggregator? And where do you define what is and what is not HN-worthy? It's apparently not age-related, nor precedence, nor community, and I don't know how you'd define what's hacker-related and what's not, barring strict, literal "hacks" (and then how about circuit bending to make music?).

It's just the fanboys voting it up. Nothing wrong with being a fanboy, I'm just saying. This news is of no interest to the general community here, except the people who love Apple more than themselves. And apparently, there are quite a few of these people here.

I come here to read news about startups, not to indulge in Apple lovefests. If I wanted to do that, I'd be over at TechCrunch.

People that blindly hate upon everything Apple is just as bad as people that blindly love Apple.

I'm not hating on Apple. Re-read my posts and tell me one place where I said anything negative about Apple.

I'm simply asking a question - why is this news relevant to this community and why do we have to have a top-story post on it every quarter? What use is that to anyone here?

And for this simple question, I have lost almost 40 points of karma in the last hour.

Thanks everyone. What a great community.

>Thanks everyone. What a great community.

We do what we can to discourage repetitive whining. I'd say it works pretty well, because the site as a whole is remarkably free from it.

It's just the fanboys; try to ignore them. They downvote anyone who expresses an opinion which they disagree with, or which they think is anti-apple. When the more sane users get to these comments, you'll regain at least a bit of your karma, probably.

I do agree that going against the grain isnt very well rewarded on hn (or for most online communities for that matter). But you do have my respect for expanding the discussion space and asking what I think is a legitimate question.

I'm calling your bluff.

http://news.ycombinator.com/submitted?id=schammy

The single submission you've made has been a link to a picture of Jobs in a 1984 motif - clearly negative about Apple.

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1517087 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1306919 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1306321 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1306314 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1306310 NOTE: Those last two are the exact same comment posted twice on the same article! You literally copy and pasted an anti-Apple comment so that it appeared multiple times for the same article. http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1281192

So, looking over your past 30 comments here on HN, 20% of them are negative about Apple.

You wanted people to look at your history and your history shows a negative bias against Apple.

I was talking about this conversation thread, not my posting history in general. Yeah I don't like Apple, but in this particular thread, I said nothing negative about them at all. That's what I meant. I was just asking a question, "why is this relevant to HN", and now have lost almost 100 points of karma.

What does that say about this community? Nothing good in my opinion. But obviously, anyone who doesn't drink the Apple kool-aid doesn't have a valid opinion around these parts.

I expect to lose another 20 points of karma from this post. Have at it, sheeple.

Edit: Ya know what, after all this, I just don't see the purpose of participating in this site anymore. I was asking a perfectly valid question and received almost nothing but hate in response. Obviously I'm not welcome around here. I will send an email to HN to have my account deleted.

So long.

FWIW I up'ed your initial question but down'ed some of your replies. Not due to your views of Apple (couldn't care less..), but because you seem to be acting kind of silly and trying really hard to not understand how Apple's current performance, and it's implied future performance, wouldn't be news to hackers and startups.

If you're being genuine, there's no need to leave - just try harder to understand or ignore the Apple stuff. If not, whatever.

p.s. for someone calling others "sheeple" I just want to point out that you seem rather concerned and emotional over your karma, with karma simply being an average of how those around you tend to see you.

Sheep?

Regardless of if you're a fanboy or shareholder, you should be interested in emerging and sustaining trends as an entrepreneur

I see no connection between Apple's revenue and emerging/sustaining trends.

Apple's revenue reinforces the belief that proper execution of an emerging trend works, as well as the sustained proper execution of it will keep on working.

That's more of an unfortunate thing on your part, IMO. I take this from it personally:

- Mobile is still growing like crazy

- People are willing to pay a premium for quality even in tougher economic times

- Digital distribution of Music and Software is the future (I left out movies here because Apple doesn't give a detailed breakdown, but I think this is a significant part of the iTunes revenue as well)

Information exists everywhere, the truly successful are those that can extract it.

> Mobile is still growing like crazy

So if you didn't get a top-story post on Apple's revenue from HN every quarter, you would have no idea how fast mobile is growing?

> People are willing to pay a premium for quality even in tougher economic times

So? Unless you're in the business of selling expensive hardware - and my guess is that you are not - this is irrelevant.

> Digital distribution of Music and Software is the future

We're already living in this future. The last time I bought a hard-copy retail version of software was in the 90's, and for music, at least 5 years.

You're still not getting it (or more likely being intentionally obtuse). Corporate results matter: remember the hype around the Palm Pre? If you dropped your iPhone development or even moved resources to build a Pre version of your software you made a mistake. The fact the this is on the front page is relevant to people that making strategic decisions based on market leaders.

Interestingly this site has a great feature that allows you to ignore things you believe are irrelevant: if you don't click the link you don't need to read it.

What would be actual news is Apple suddenly doing bad. At this point it's a given that they're crushing it, so having a big circlejerk every time they release insane quarterly numbers every quarter serves no purpose.

The Pre is a good example of corporate results being interesting, but that's because they were the huge underdog. Reporting that the top dog keeps getting more toppy is not interesting.

I know I can ignore stories I don't find interesting, but I usually read almost all of the top 10 stories on HN every day and Apple's quarterly results always gets in there (typically #1 for a while), so it's hard to ignore.

Oh, I'm sorry, I see the error of my ways...

Hey everyone on Hacker News, please ask schammy before up voting any story so that nothing he isn't interested in doesn't make it to the front page!

Seriously, if you only read the top 10 stories you're missing the best stuff on this site. Try not to only read popular opinion, most people are sheep

Just earlier this week I realized (consciously) how Apple basically single-handedly enabled location-based startups.

Sure, location-detection portable devices have been out for a long time, but not until the iPhone did it actually take off.

They sure as hell made it a lot easier. I was involved in a location based start up in about 2000. I was laid off in 2003, and they kept going until this year when they merged with Xora.

The most striking difference between modern location based startups and ours is how easy it is to get your application on a phone these days. I don't care how draconian Apple seems to be with getting your app on the phone, it just doesn't compare.

The company worked for months (if not years) to get the app distributed with a phone automatically (or nearly automatically), and the best we could get was that the enterprise sales group at the carrier could sell the solution to a company. You could still get our app on a phone w/o that, but it required a whole bunch of proprietary tools (that nobody would know how to get) and a serious amount of technical know-how at that. In other words, there was zero chance of someone saying, "hey, why don't we try this out for free to see if it can be of any use to us"

Perhaps this is why I don't get all in a tizzy about Apple's draconian app store practices (though, the last bits finally did get to me). I'm like a transplant from Czarist Russia who has come to post Patriot Act America.

Let's say you had a startup in an emerging market like mobile apps. Maybe the health of Apple would be relevant to that.

Yes, but everyone knows that Apple is crushing it. What would be actual news is if they suddenly lost this crazy momentum. Hence, there is no need to have a story every quarter about Apple's insane revenue. It's a given.

The only reason everyone knows that Apple is crushing it is because of news stories like this.

Also, there was no way prior to this article to know that this was the Mac's best quarter ever, or that the iPad outsold the Mac. Knowing both these facts now, I'm much more focused on adding integration and syncing features to the Mac application and iPad companion app I'm working on.

Apple has bet a significant portion of their business over the last 12-18 months on a mobile strategy. A very significant portion of the WWDC this year was focused on Mobile. Any developer out there wondering where to direct their energy into a new endeavor (and news.ycombinator.com is a place where such developers congregate, ycombinator being a well known seed fund) would be very interested in seeing Apple's success as an indicator of both the popularity of Apple Products as a development platform, and the mobile environment, in particular.

This is big news for the Hacker community that is interested in creating new startups. Clearly, the Apple Ecosystem has both legs and inertia for another quarter.

I continue to look forward to Google's, and, oddly enough, Micrsoft's response. I'm guessing we're going to see a lot of Mobile and Tablet news in the next 18 months based on Apple's most recent quarter. Less so on the Cloud - until, of course, Apple has a blowout quarter based on the revenue from their new $1B NC Data Center. :-)

Good article on how Jobs seriously went all-in on the original iPhone:

http://counternotions.com/2008/07/16/bet-iphone/

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