Lets hope it wont be too late
Lets hope it wont be too late
This is not remotely true, unless you buy into the ridiculous Ausubel et al paper. Most conservative projections have it at 2040 for peak arable land, which is not the same as being out of agricultural space, and certainly not the same as denying climate change.
Efficiency of arable land per hectare is through the roof and continues to improve every decade by increasing multiplicative factors due to consolidation, regulation, and technology.
The problem is not food development, arable land, or generating calories at all. It is entirely in the distribution of the food and the political ramifications of such.
(I have a 2 acre 'food forest', I'm not a 'Big AG apologist' or any of the dozens of other things I've been called over the years - I'm just realistic)
As tech evolves tho, I think we'll see chemical pesticides and herbicides replaced with mechanical solutions instead.
The world doesn't necessarily need to use industrial agriculture to achieve the same yields, the alternative is to be having many more farmers working smaller a plots and actually getting better yields from it.
I'd take environmental degradation over slavery, to be honest.
Now, I do agree with you that with even better technology than we have now, we can replace much of what we need chemistry for with mechanical solutions. Although, chemical application with modern systems can be dosed on areas measured in square feet, a long way from the 'a bit of nitrogen is good so double the amount is better' mentality of a few decades ago. But the future of agriculture is not in 'back to land' or 'permaculture' style farming. It's in more technology, not less, and less labor, not more.
Despite people's knee-jerk reactions, allowing the population to decrease doesn't have to mean anything about eugenics and economics doesn't require growth. On the contrary, growth and even staying at current levels have many problems.
The belief that we need to grow is carrying us toward disaster.
I can't agree with this more.
We need to think about an alternative to it.