Is the World Falling Apart? Not at All
gatesnotes.com
gatesnotes.com
There are many, many, fewer animals now than even 50 years ago:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/10/161027113306.h...
58% of species are in decline
https://e360.yale.edu/features/insect_numbers_declining_why_...
Many fewer insects than 50 years ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_fishing_in_Newfoundland
After his voyage in 1497, John Cabot's crew reported that
"the sea there is full of fish that can be taken not only with nets but with fishing-baskets".[3]
and around 1600 English fishing captains still reported cod shoals
"so thick by the shore that we hardly have been able to row a boat through them."[4]
While individual human life has gotten better, it has largely been at the expense of every other organism on the planet.
For a logical conclusion (mostly) to this process, see "The Godwhale" by TJ Bass.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Godwhale
In it, people are the only animals left on the planet, as they've eaten everything else.
The simple fact of the matter is that we are making the planet uninhabitable at a rate that is too low for the average person to understand, while being too fast for species' evolutionary adaptations to kick in.
In a couple of generations we've polluted most bodies of water with some form of pollution, be it microplastics, fertilizer runoff, or a myriad other things whose effects are not understood.
We've altered the Earth's atmosphere to a point where it is, for all intents and purposes, irreversible.
We have no mechanisms to restore fertility and biodiversity to the levels where they used to be before our population explosion. No one would care anyway.
But....I suspect it has only been possible by a rapid use of carbon energy, and by expansion into the biosphere. I doubt it is sustainable, to use the more literal sense of the word.
It's all fine and dandy to help people, and to move the destitute and suffering out of poverty and struggle, but we've gone way beyond that. I'd argue that we've gone way too-far and we're now actively breeding more people than we should-be. Eventually, it'll get to a point where we either destroy the environment permanently and X% of the world dies off as a result, we discover some sort of tech-utopian-advancements that negate all the bad effects and we live happily ever after, or we start saying no to more humans and go forward as a society in a sustainable way where tech and conservation technology follows-pace with our population growth.
Uncomfortable questions await us in the future.
> No.
> Here's a video. Watch it with a VR headset or browser that supports 360 degree video
> Watch me on facebook later this week
Somehow, I think this could have been more persuasive.
"Sure we're all getting better, just look at global food and safety" is as inanely pointless an argument as "of course nothing is getting better, just look at poverty and corruption" - both lie on opposite ends of the most obvious basic spectrum of human behavior. If all you're worried about is "will I be alive and breathing" then yes, by all means, you have an "optimistic" future.
The political and economic trends of major countries might seem insignificant in comparison, but the world takes its cues from first-world countries. The state and progress of things in first world countries are a pointer to where things are going to go in those nations once the lowest levels of Maslow's hierarchy are covered.
lol
I agree with and support the message, but I was just hoping we could address the irony here.
PS Check out my recent discussion on HN, to see how my optimistic, most innocuous comments get criticized and down voted by doom and gloom crowd... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15100050
PPS There you have it: the comments to this thread are already piling up with doom and gloom.
I mean, if an asteroid is headed to Earth it's not uncalled for to be doom and gloomy. It really does suck. The same goes for possibly eliminating most of the life on the planet and with it the ability for human civilization to persist.
Here's the problem with this kind of comment. There is a specific issue under discussion, and instead of discussing the issue (e.g., technical fixes or mitigations), you complain in very general terms about the attitude of the people who are trying to discuss it.
Here, you have further offered (without evidence) a just-so story about "thinking negatively" as an adaptation that is no longer serving those negative people out there.
This kind of objection is especially galling in the case of climate. There are powerful forces that are blocking mere understanding and measurement of climate trends - much less mitigation. It's not "doom and gloom" to recognize the possible impact and to measure and understand. It's solid technical problem-solving. It's the reason things are getting better.