The argument isn't that "No hedge fund will ever beat the market." The argument is that, "You can't tell in advance which hedge fund will beat the market."
The long tail exists, just not for you.
And how do you, ahead of time, select the upper tail.
I'm sure that's true, but it's also true of dice. Unless the same funds remain in the upper tails over long periods of time, it's pointless.
It's not about the tail, but that the mean (and median) is so much lower after HF fees and FoF fees (and the fact that there's just not that much talent out there).
Can you guarantee me access to upper tail funds? I'm interested. I'd love to get my money into Medallion.
That was kind of my point. Funds like medallion exist and succeed pretty consistently, but they are the tail. Certainly others go above and below at various points in time