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> If something looks like it's an impossibly good investment, it may actually be.

Probably not a fair criticism of the investor in this case. 20 years ago, it would have been a totally accurate assessment.

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The risk/outcome - that the taxi supply becomes responsive to taxi demand and licenses/medallions become worthless - has existed as long as medallions have. While the risk is hard to forecast and thus price, it's not new. Investors succeed by pricing risk and investors who bought in 2013 significantly mis-priced this risk, so criticism seems reasonable.

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