What are the odds something could go wrong compared to the relative good of squeezing in one last flight's revenue for a while? Is flying in a hurricane actually not that bad and the airport turnaround/takeoff the most dangerous part?
"Let's see... 50% chance of incremental $200*150=$30K (idk the price nor the capacity, so just entertain me) in revenue. Let's bump that with the expected loss/lawsuits if this fails = ... Who cares? It's in the millions. Just don't do it."
I think this is one of those cases where the airline took it upon themselves to really try to help as many people get out as they could.
Yes, timing calm air effectively requires calculation. I'm at a loss when deciphering how that relates to what I'm saying.
(In no way am I playing down what they did though. I'm only commenting on your analysis.)
So the realized risk is fuel and cost of a grounded plane.
> Once the plane landed in San Juan, the alternative—leaving the plane on the tarmac or in a hangar—would probably have destroyed the airplane ... If the plane had gotten stuck, Delta probably could have gotten the humans out safely. But it almost certainly would have lost a plane.
It's also not just an airline decision - you've got a pilot in control who can make the no-go call at any point, and their training should prevent them from undertaking unnecessary risks.
Just look at all this free PR.
But I choose to believe it was about giving people one last chance to get out.
Obviously it would be quite bad to fly into a hurricane's rain bands (the weather outside of the "corridor" that the DL431 flight moved through).
The real feat here is the real-time and reliable coordination between all interested parties -- as mentioned in the article, the meteorologists, dispatchers, pilots, cabin crew, and ground crew. Everybody involved had a distinct sense that the window of opportunity was narrow and it should be quite clear that they acted with a high degree of professionalism and skill.
As for the life-threatening danger: it's risky, that's for sure, and I would by no means calls this a small feat, but there is no intense wind shear like those found in tornadoes, thunder storms, microbursts, or other such things.
https://www.reddit.com/r/flying/comments/10fcqm/whats_the_mo...
NOAA has been flying aircraft into hurricanes since the 1950s. It is not inordinately dangerous, but it is not just another flight, either.
https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/108766.pdf
But what does get interesting is flying through the
hurricane's rainbands and the eyewall.
-- http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/H3.html
But hurricanes are immense, and immensely powerful. The size and energy drive all manner of dangerous phenomena. For example, growing up in Florida we were worried less about the hurricane, per se, than the many tornados they often spawned.