> This time is different
> This time is different
If economists said that as a rule, automation improvements lead to better jobs for horses you would call them crazy. But when they say it as a rule for humans it suddenly makes total sense. Horses were replaced by cars. Humans can be replaced by AI.
Is it?
What happened in the past was that people stopped being handy with a scythe and started getting handy fixing tractors. That's "replacing human labor entirely" in the exact same way that replacing a welder with someone who can program a welding robot is.
How is this different? The supposed AI which is better than every human at every task is sci-fi. If we're talking about real AIs and real robots we're just not there, and strides in that direction continue to be spotty, as they have been for the last 30 years.
What happened is that people stopped being farmers. The number of farmers per capita dropped by something like 95%, compared to a century ago.
People stopped being farmers and were able to pursue other industries. But there were still farmers, and a whole support economy of new jobs to support the new method of farming. AI is going to be the farmer driving the tractor, the person who repairs the tractor, the system that manufactures new tractor parts, the person that drives it, a large amount of the support designing new tractors (even if there were 100 competing brands of tractors there are a limited number of people required for research and design and maintenance of the automation (not enough to replace 2.1 million farmers, let alone the millions of factory workers, mechanics, and delivery people), and the AI can even do most of that themselves too soon).
Today, if I have no modern job, where can I procure food? The land is all spoken for. I can't just start a farm in someone's backyard.