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Luck is a huge common factor in all of the big success stories I see, but you do still have to make a moonshot to get lucky with one.

I'm sure a lot of garage computer engineers in the '80s have a few boxes of boards that could well have been the Next Big Thing, if only X/Y/Z.

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Whilst the luck element is true, I think people place to much emphasis on it, in reality, pretty much every person that "got lucky" had been working hard at whatever it was they "got lucky" in for a while. It's just exposure, I guess if I was making a bad analogy, it's kinda like spreading the board with chips on a roulette table, yeah you got lucky, but you set yourself up for it. Same applies in life. The difference between the winners and losers (All IMO) is that the "losers" only laid down one or two, the "winners" spread the board.

Depends. If you don't try your change of that extremely rich outcome is 0%.

If you do try really hard, its maybe a 20% chance.

The question you have to ask is that 20% chance worth not being able to do other things with my time.

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