Even the most basic life seems super complicated to me, I am not sure the first spark of life has that high probability of happening even under right conditions. But maybe I am over estimating its complexity.
it might still be possible "given enough time".
You have to keep in mind that, on earth, today, life cannot just exist. It must compete successfully with other very complex lifeforms. This effectively imposes a minimum complexity level that any lifeform must attain to survive in the current environment. But, conceptually, there are many things that would count as life even though they have zero hope to exist on earth (outside of labs). Such simple lifeforms today can only exist in places like the clouds of Venus.