Defcon password cracking contest

Any idea on the percentage of cracked passwords one would need to win the contest, or at least be competitive? I was thinking 20% (about 10,500 passwords) but that's just a wild guess.

Also, some suggestions on what hash types to focus on. Unix crypt has so many variants it's hard to decide. I can handle most of the other hash types (ssha, nt, md5, etc.) no problem. I have my own tool that I wrote. I am not using JTR, ophcrack, etc. Nothing against those tools, but it's more fun to write my own code to see how it compares.

Any tips are appreciated.