Is it just me who is having similar thoughts?
For me I think the reality is that I expect computer literacy to continue to increase, while some slick abstractions will be developed in the next 25 years. Granted, software developers will still be in demand, yet there'll be more labor available in the market, and much of it will be more accessible which will drive down salaries a bit as the labor supply starts to catch up with demand. I also lack a formal degree, though real-world experience and self-teaching myself most of a CS and Mathematics undergrad curriculum has prevented that from becoming a problem.
Also, I'm watching my 60+ year-old parents go through it. They sold their house to free up cash. I had to bail them out (for 18 months) when I was 22-23 for a non-trivial amounts of money, since no one else could've helped them out. My uncle and aunt are in the same boat. My sister is ridden with debt. Parents of neighborhood kids are going through similar motions (selling the house to free up cash).
My plan?
* Save at least 35% of my net pay every year. Already done, shooting for 40% now. Goal is 50% (at current income level/standard of living). Credit is a tool that I do use to my advantage at times, but it's rare. Most everything is cash, including major purchases (i.e. car).
* Develop something to provide a 2nd income stream of at least $850/mo that only can go into savings. That's real money over the long haul.
* Minimize purchases of durable goods. I expect 15 years out of the car (only buy a car that makes you smile every time you get in it). My furniture will outlive me. I get 5-ish years out of clothing (and don't own much). Electronics either need to last 10+ years or have high resale value.
* Plan to change careers in 17-20 years, especially if there's tangible demand in a new field. Mostly since I expect to be bored. Barring that, time to get a "real" engineering degree.
Don't bet on it. There are tons of failed examples of attempts to enable plug and play programming (connecting pre-made components together), and it never scales. The devil is in the details.
Granted, more complex problems will always require more complex solutions. I don't see anything like this changing where I work (quantitative finance), but it'd be more of a concern for those working at J-Random Cardboard Box Company.
I'm not against planning for the future, but at-least for me, living as frugally as you say you are would simply be too boring/depressing/mundane/etc. given my current (or short term) salary. Perhaps I will feel the pinch of this later in my life, but I definitely want to "live in the moment" as much as I possibly can - and for me, that involves spending some money (I have no doubts that others can do so without money too).
Granted, my income increased substantially over the years. My foundation expenses haven't increased, I've just cut down discretionary spending and buy things that last (i.e. avoiding buying cheap junk because it "saves money now" when it costs more over time because it has to be replaced). I actually spend less than I did 5 years ago.
There's ways to be cheap that are still smart and don't make you feel like your cheating yourself for the sake of frugality. Video games are just as fun when they're 2-years old and can be had off of eBay for $10 as they were when they were brand new and $60. I wait for consoles to be price cut. I can upgrade iPhones every year because I can get 90-95% of the upgrade cost covered by selling the old one on eBay. I spent a lot on an LED-backlit TV years ago, but it looks so fantastic (after 4 years) I don't see myself replacing it until it dies, rather than upgrading every 3 years like my friends have since the late 90s.
If I really wanted to, I could limit my expenses to 35% of my net pay. But then that would be short-changing myself. 35% used to be the average savings rate in China.
1. Pick a company you don't hate 2. Get hired 3. learn their codebase inside and out 4. DON'T QUIT
Pretty soon you will be the only person around who knows about system "X" and they will be glad to keep you around past 65. My office is filled with COBOL programmers that took this path. Hell, we even recently hired a guy in his 60's, because that's just how old COBOL programmers are.
Alternatively you could get your MBA and go the CTO/VP of engineering route. This seems better to me, (as a backup plan to startup failure).
That said, I'm pretty sure there are some CS professors that are 65; if they can hold that gig we should be able to crank out software (I hope)!
there's no concept of tenure outside of academia, though :/
Unfortunately (fortunately?) I don't think that in 37 years, I'll be seeing a lot of systems that were installed in the 00's - the mentality these days is more about interconnection and interoperability than it was in the 70's.
That said, I'm a systems administrator, not a programmer. There'll still be servers in 30 years, they'll just probably glow blue and float around the data centre unbounded by gravity, or something equally crazy.
I think that's a thing of the past, as plenty of people have found out in the last two years.
I don't have a great deal of money, but I do have enough coming in that most months I end with more than I started, and don't have to worry about starvation, foreclosure or eviction, and spend a fair amount on books and gadgets.
It's not a very exciting life, but I enjoy it most days, and it's been years since I had to listen to anybody telling me what to do.
Thank you.
Let's assume for the sake of argument that Americans earning the minimum wage are living in "extreme poverty" (which is not true in my opinion, but let's be conservative).
The median household income in US is around U$50k.
http://en.wikipedia.or/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_S...
So the median household is already living above poverty. You alone can earn more than $50k as a junior programmer. You probably have above average programming skills, and will eventually earn 100k if you get a job in a big company and stick to it.
You don't even need to live too frugally. You only need to pretend your income is $50k -- you'll still live at least well as the median household -- and sock the rest away in very conservative investments.
If that's your plan, then you are depending on Social Security or whatever social programs are available when you retire.
I'm going to make it happen. Somehow.
I understand that everyone's financial situation and aspirations are different. YMMV.
Seriously though, when are you going to start a company? There's at least 4 of us (Kevin M, John H, Dave N, me) working on 3 startups in SF. Join us!
Is it just me who is having similar thoughts?
I do believe that, at this point in my life, the only realistic shot I have at living out my dreams for the future is to build a successful startup. So you are definitely not alone. :-)
PS: My father was a 63 year old programmer the day he died, and believe me he was well paid and in high demand.
If you are looking to emigrate from a 'third world' (what a ridiculous term) country to a wealthier one it can be quite hard. If you already have family or friends somewhere that can make the process considerably easier.
This is why BC and Alberta were thriving when the Canadian dollar was worth more than the US dollar and the price of oil was sky-high, while Ontario was suffering. That said, I'm not sure of the larger implications to the Canadian economy as a whole if the US tanks. It may be simple to move to trade with China, though it may not.
And that is after you get here.
I think it's pretty much a given that Australia and New Zealand will accept you if you (a) speak the language (b) have a profession and (c) no criminal record. When I goto the local playground sometimes I wonder if I'm not in a suburb of London, such is the amount of English accents I hear.