Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching
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What you don't realize is that no one (I don't mean average person, I mean politicians and leaders) really cares what the DPRK (by extension the Kims) do to their own people as long as they are not a threat to anyone else. China likes having the DPRK there as a buffer against the American forces in South Korea. It also provides a distraction as China is claiming the entire South China Sea.
South Korea while officially saying they want re-unification doesn't really want it. If and when the DPRK falls, you got 25 million refugees who are barely able to function in the modern world streaming to China or South Korea. China will not take the refugee in, they will either deploy PLA at the border and stop them or take over the DPRK as a puppet state. The economic cost to absorb the refugees is enormous. In the 20 years after West Germany and East Germany merged, over 1.3 trillion euros was spent on the former East Germany and its still behind economically the former West Germany. The GDP per capita for East Germany at the time of the merger was 10000USD (1990 dollars) and right now for DPRK it's less than 1500USD (current dollars). West Germany was also economically much stronger at the time then South Korea is now and has a much higher population (~60M West, ~15M East) compared to the Koreas (~50M South, ~25M North). South Korea doesn't have the money or the economic poweress help the DPRK like West Germany did with East Germany.
EDIT: read this instead, this guy explained what I said much better on Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1etaxd/north_kor...
I personally know people whose family was split by the arbitrary North/South border divide. For them, I think absorbing and reintegrating the population of the North Korean means more to them than just an economic burden.
Given that the South Korean government were elected democratically, you would hope that they would be prepared to represent the interests of the population.
There's been lots of talk that this won't happen but it's hard to see how there won't be at least some sort of checks reintroduced. This isn't too unusual, we had the Common Travel Area[2] since 20s well before Schengen but a return to any sort of militarized or "formal" border could easily kick it all off again in the border counties.
For an idea of the difficulty here's what crossing the border looks like the BBC did a little drone video where it's very easy to see how "leaky" it would be [3]. When I was growing up it looked more like this for the main routes [4].
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xz35L-TBt9M
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area
[3] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-northern-ireland-40104333/cr...
[4] https://i.pinimg.com/736x/23/a3/54/23a354665613f3aa695f0e5c3...
> South Korea doesn't have the money or the economic poweress help the DPRK like West Germany did with East Germany.
Realistically, a merger has to make sense for the chebols/conglomerates, right?
Edit: also where do China PR and Japan stand on unification? I've read claims that neither is very fond of it?
I think they'll be really fine.
(Not trying to be snarky, genuinely curious, because every time this subject comes up, everyone starts throwing around the "China doesn't want 25M refugees overnight" argument, so I assume there's some background I'm missing.)
Not Europe, no - because most of them didn't have the legal status to gain any european citizenship. But million jews rushed into Israel, with a total population of 8 million, which greatly affected the country.
Given that South Korea officially 'wants' unification, they won't have any other choice but to grant citizen status to everyone - and I don't doubt that a LOT of north koreans will jump on this opportunity right away.
Of course they'll have the choice not to immediately grant citizenship to 25 million!
Those were largely peaceful changes. Neither Germany nor the Soviet Union got nuked nor have millions of people die in a war, as is very likely to happen if war breaks out with North Korea. If they had, then yes, there would have been probably millions of refugees trying to run for their lives. Take a look at any other major war and you'll see that this is in fact what happens.
Those governments also fell internally, meaning the people were pushing for a change and were somewhat ready to make it happen. Invading North Korea would be pretty different.
One big unknown (at least to me) is the level of indoctrination. Related to the above, a lot of people in Eastern Europe were fed up with their government, didn't believe anything they said, and were ready to build something better. It seems like a lot more North Koreans might buy into their government's views, in which case they might flee the "evil imperialist invaders." Heck, even without indoctrination, a reasonable person might not want to be near the fighting.
25 million refugees is obviously a bit much. The entire country won't pick up and move. But it would probably be many millions.
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_Iraq#Iraq_War_.282...
If we have to address this at the root, it's China, the pink elephant in the room. China, our biggest trading partner and also an authoritarian government (US is probably kicking itself allowing such a horrible government to be so powerful), is propping up this vassel state and prevent any progress made in the peninsula. If China wasn't propping them up, North Korean government would have already fell long time ago.
So what happens now? Do we just let China keep protecting its puppet until the puppet has shipped a nuclear bomb to a port in Los Angeles? I hope not. I hope the world takes action before then - I hope the world punishes China and North Korea
whatever you're suggesting, it's about now or some future time...
If you're on Android you might need a device sold in the Japan market to get them (seems there are mixed reports on this, would love to hear from someone in the industry - does this stuff use standard GSM features and are these enabled on Android by default? could weird manufacturer skins disable them?).
You also need to be in the affected area to receive the message, although third party apps often let you customize the range or priority of messages to receive.
On my US-sold iPhone running on an MVNO I reliably receive earthquake/flood alerts. But I didn't receive the alert this morning since I live in the other end of the country where it was not broadcast.
For the people who can't read it: Hokkaido, Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Akita, Yamagata, Fukushima, Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Niigata, Nagano
That makes the Tohoku Region (northern Japan), northern Kanto (Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma), and northern Chubu (Nagano, Niigata).
Not to mention that Japan uses different W-CDMA channels than many other places in the world, so if the people you know have foreign phones they may get limited CB coverage.
Those playing defense have a lot of incentive to keep their plans and capabilities quiet and uncertain until they are absolutely required. Once the defensive strategies are employed openly, the offense can more-reliably develop countermeasures.
Using a missile shield when it's not needed reveals the location of installations, which can make them deliberate future targets.
If you throw a punch and miss me (whether intentional or not), and I do not immediately react, it does not imply that I am incapable of defending myself.
What actually happened proves that this would have been unnecessary.
edit: for instance this Reddit comment https://www.reddit.com/r/japan/comments/6wmnxp/north_korea_f...
> The THAAD system that is deployed in Japan intercepts an incoming missile as it is coming down on the target, with a maximum altitude of about 150 km.
Which gets you to reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_De...
> Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), formerly Theater High Altitude Area Defense, is an American anti-ballistic missile defense system designed to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase (descent or reentry) by intercepting with a hit-to-kill approach.
I believe about seven destroyers in the Japanese navy are equipped with Aegis and can intercept; the 7th Fleet likewise, though not all of their destroyers are in Japanese territory at the moment (in fact, two of them were the ones in the news for crashes).
If he really valued the lives of his citizens, you would probably expect a different means of governing. I don't think you can treat this person as a rational individual when negotiating...
Its not pretty, but can you say you believe given another 10 years unchecked development the likelihood of strike and deaths is lower?
As nutty as they seem neither NK nor USA are going to attempt a first-strike. For NK, it would mean a swift, permanent end to the regime. For the USA, it would mean an unacceptable level of causalities (not to mention a global economic disaster).
There is dissent in NK, it will eventually take out dear leader. This is the most desirable end-game for NK.
Best case: NK government falls on its own. Least casualties.
Worst case: NK attacks (i.e. the missile had hit) or gets attacked, massive casualties on all sides.
How does your appeal to emotion change any of that?
If, somehow, it ended up hitting Japan it certainly would have been a big scary incident but few causalities if any.
This is why North Korea is dead set on developing nuclear bombs. As long as the US remains a threat North Korea has no other choice, it's not like getting rid of their WMD's would prevent the US from attacking.
No, but China would, and even North Korea's conventional threat against South Korea would.
A non-nuclear PRNK has nothing to fear from the USA, because China loves its North Korean buffer against South Korea, and will not let anything happen to it. Wouldn't China love a non-nuclear PRNK even more? It would still be a buffer and could still cause massive damage to Seoul and South Korea's industry and shipping, but without the region-destabilizing nuclear threat to Japan, Guam, CONUS, etc.
If KJU wanted to be a responsible leader, it seems to me that he would drop his nuclear and icbm programs, come up with a narrative for why that was necessary (or simply lie to his people and launch short-range rockets all the time to maintain a facade of continued progress), accept international aid and modernization, and claim credit for it to his people. If the international community does things he doesn't like, he can still threaten to attack South Korea, which would be devastating. The nuclear threat is just one step too far, and if KJU isn't careful, he's going to find that out. Trump isn't going to attack offensively (at least not without Chinese and South Korean green lights), not only because the counterattack would be a disaster for U.S. allies and perhaps the U.S. itself, but because China would then get involved in some capacity on North Korea's side.
KJU doesn't appear to want to be a responsible or rational leader, nor does he want to help his people. It seems like he wants the nuclear threat to get sanctions lifted so he can be even more of a jackass to his subjects and prop up his own regime with more comfort and power. He's already living well; if he's not happy with the status quo and wants more power and lifted sanctions to benefit himself and not his citizens, that makes me worry about his rationality vastly more than I worry about Trump's, and I do worry about Trump's sometimes.
Both these things exist now, and the war hawks are still pressing for war.
>A non-nuclear PRNK has nothing to fear from the USA, because China loves its North Korean buffer against South Korea, and will not let anything happen to it.
They do have everything to fear of China, and still could be a bargaining chip in some future deal between China and the US. They tried the whole "rely on a superpower" thing before, the USSR attempted to remove Kim Il-sung from power then the eventual collapse devastated the economy. The Juche philosophy exists for a reason.
>If KJU wanted to be a responsible leader, it seems to me that he would drop his nuclear and icbm programs, come up with a narrative for why that was necessary (or simply lie to his people and launch short-range rockets all the time to maintain a facade of continued progress), accept international aid and modernization,
Like they tried in the nineties and 00's, only to have the US reneg on the deals? [1] Or like they have constantly said they would be willing to do over the past several months? [2] That bridge is ablaze if not already burnt.
>KJU doesn't appear to want to be a responsible or rational leader, nor does he want to help his people
His main priority is maintaining power, this is hardly unique. Betterment of his citizens is a secondary goal, the Songun ideology isn't really a secret.
>It seems like he wants the nuclear threat to get sanctions lifted so he can be even more of a jackass to his subjects and prop up his own regime with more comfort and power.
He wants to remove the external threats so he only has to worry about the internal ones. Things wouldn't improve for his citizens immediately, but continuing the sanctions or war won't improve their situation either.
[1)http://www.38north.org/2017/08/lsigal082217/
[2]https://theintercept.com/2017/08/25/north-korea-keeps-saying...
NK nuclear program worked as a blackmail tool - they were getting aid in exchange for concessions like freezing plutonium-related facilities, though not terminating them.
Besides that, Gaddafi was a "responsible" leader and terminated his nuclear program. Dictators are paranoid, don't you think Kim Jong-un learned his lesson?
And you can talk all you want about the outcome and best scenarios, lives. Warmongers will war, money grabbers will grab, you will pay for that!
Data from the UN and Germany shows that 80%+ of refugees have a university degree or secondary education. When war strikes, those with more resources are the ones able to escape and pay their way through to the EU.
Of course this doesn't mean integration is any easier, but the reasons are not that simple.
[1] - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-s...
http://www.e-ir.info/2016/03/07/refugees-economic-burden-or-...
[1] - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/migrant-crime-ger...
[2] - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2903116
Also I'm not sure if crime stats are right. There have been a lot of cases of covering up crimes by immigrants/refugees due to social pressure and allegations of racism. See the Rotheram incident, which set of a storm of reports all over Europe, but was covered up for years due to social pressure (56 mass rapists in one town, 53 of whom were immigrant Muslims): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotherham_child_sexual_exploit...
Another example from Germany, 1200 assaults in one night in one town: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Year%27s_Eve_sexual_assaul...
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1610391845/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_awdb_ISy...
It's the same deal with holocaust. Worse things are going on in North Korea, yet the West seems more concerned about events that happened 70+ years ago. It's like you are automatically an anti-semite for saying what's happening in North Korea are equal if not worse than what Jews have gone through, as if Jews have suffered the most out of human history or something. Of course it's fucking horrid what Jews went through but it's time we start paying more attention to modern day holocausts happening around the world.